• limpid

      Just visiting?   27/12/16

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 13)

leviramsey

427 views

I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable...

The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.

The bad: It definitely didn't help us.

Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.

17th 0.2% unchanged
18th 2.1% -1.4%
19th 10.2% -7.5%
20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likely
  1. Villa: 99.8% (unchanged)
  2. Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%)
  3. Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%)
  4. Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%)
  5. Norwich: 8.5% (+3.2%)
  6. Swansea: 4.0% (+0.5%)
  7. Chelsea: 0.3% (-1.6%)
  8. West Brom: 0.1% (-3.8%)

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  • Posts

    • Sounded like a moan to me. But well done on avoiding answering my post  
    • Ok but if we are talking about Villatalk then I think you might be confusing lowering expectations with what is deemed acceptable by fans. I don't think any fans are happy to accept playoffs. But we have to except that's as good as it wll get this season.  
    • I don't recall 'moaning' as you put it. I made a simple comment. If you want to read something else into it because it suits your agenda for wanting an argument with someone then fill your boots.
    • It depends what you mean by expectations doesn't it? I EXPECT us to finish in the playoffs. That doesn't mean I think it is acceptable At the start of the season I expected us to finish top 2 and that would have been acceptable.   So I've lowered my expectations based on our performance so far. Doesn't mean i've lowered what I think is acceptable.    So either you're moaning about people adjusting where they EXPECT us to finish, in which case you're moaning about people being realistic based on our performances. OR you're moaning that people have lowered what they deem to be an acceptable finish. In which case I think you've made these people up. I think you'll find plenty of people satisfied with promotion by any means necessary, but you won't find many, if any, who would say finishing in the playoffs isn't below their ORIGINAL expectations.
    • Why don't you read some posts and it will become evident to you that some people have lowered their expectations or have you just replied to my post to start an argument?
    • Well I could hardly say all people have lowered their expectations as not every Villa fan posts on Villatalk.
    • Who are these people you speak of? Or have you just made up a straw man to argue with?
    • Maybe it was. But you said some people have lowered their expectation. So are you telling me there are people that still expect top two?
    • It is. But we have our best striker injured long term. His replacement injured. Their backup still recovering from an injury. And HIS backup only just returning from injury. We still have enough quality in the squad to be scoring goals, no denying that. But  we won't spend the whole season with the lack of options we have now.
    • I don’t think many are expecting us to ‘dispatch close rivals with ease’. Scraped 1-0 victories would be acceptable. But losing 2-0, 2-0 & 3-0 to 3 of the 4 teams above us is poor, and then the other teams in the Top 7 that we've played we’ve drawn 1-1 with. Considering the resources we’ve had available to us, you would at least hope or expect that we’d give those teams a little more to think about. As it happens, I don’t think we have.   Maybe a better, more adaptable manager would have been able to make better use of the players that he inherited. McCormack has looked like a lost cause, to be fair to Bruce, but the rest of the squad is easily good enough to get us into a comfortable play-off place, if not 2nd.