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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 9)


leviramsey

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13th 0.1% -1.1%
14th 0.2% -2.2%
15th 0.4% -3.9%
16th 1.2% -5.7%
17th 3.5% -6.7%
18th 12.1% -2.7%
^^^ upper quartile
19th 30.0% +7.7%
20th 52.5% +15.6% Median, maximum likelihood

Barring major change, I think we're nailed-on for rock-bottom.

  1. Aston Villa: 94.6% chance of relegation
  2. Sunderland: 90.8%
  3. Bournemouth: 68.2%
  4. Norwich: 16.7%
  5. Watford: 10.1%
  6. West Brom: 8.5%
  7. Liverpool: 7.5%
  8. Newcastle: 3.3%
  9. Swansea, Stoke: 0.1%

Of course, it only takes one emphatic win to change the assessment, as Newcastle ably prove, but do we honestly see that sort of result coming from this incarnation of Villa?

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