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    • limpid

      Just visiting?   27/12/16

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 14)

leviramsey

609 views

Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.

The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:

Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.

Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:

16th 0.1% +0.1%
17th 0.4% +0.2%
18th 1.3% -0.8%
19th 6.1% -4.1%
20th 92.1% +4.6%

One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.

  1. Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%)
  2. Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%)
  3. Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%)
  4. Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%)
  5. Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%)
  6. Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%)
  7. Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%)
  8. West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)

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  • Posts

    • He’s deffo better as a DM with a clearly defined role than any other position he’s played. I think he could be only guilty of trying too hard as he was a headless chicken in a few of the early games he played. I saw someone on twitter call him ‘Barney’ yesterday, I’d never heard that before but thought it was quite good.
    • Is it snowing?????
    • Hopefully yesterday's sloppy defending has nothing to do with him. One thing is clear: we benefit from Jedinak's strength and superior aerial prowess especially on set pieces. Jedi somewhat makes up for Johnstone's inability to come off his line. 
    • Can I get a "hell yeah"    
    • Head's not round enough. Looks like he was a good appointment, as it seems there's something changed at bodymoor since he got here. Would seem to confirm that Bruce is more of an office manager than a training ground manager.
    • Are we jist looling to find faults with players now ?   He made less errors under the other way weve been playing. People want a more attacking style of play which invariably means the other team get more chances yet we still have one of the meanest defences.  
    • Our defense was not solid at all yesterday. They need to get back to their level, Chester foremost.
    • A quick footnote to the Causa Sui stuff posted above. The download code wasn't working. I sent the record label an e-mail saying the download discount isn't working. Jakob, the drummer from the band wrote back saying give me an hour, try again and let me know. It worked. All power to the do it yourself stoner band and own record label tech nerds.
    • I think getting the right coaching team together makes a massive difference. When John Gregory left Brian Little’s coaching team we never really looked the same again. Reme Garde didn’t get his chosen coaches, ok there were plenty of other things hampering him, but that could have been a major factor.  The difference in results and performances between December and January would seem to suggest that the last piece in the coaching jigsaw is having a huge effect. 
    • I’ve got Green Eyes seeing him go there.