• limpid

      Just visiting?   27/12/16

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 14)

leviramsey

563 views

Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.

The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:

Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.

Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:

16th 0.1% +0.1%
17th 0.4% +0.2%
18th 1.3% -0.8%
19th 6.1% -4.1%
20th 92.1% +4.6%

One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.

  1. Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%)
  2. Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%)
  3. Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%)
  4. Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%)
  5. Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%)
  6. Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%)
  7. Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%)
  8. West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)

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  • Posts

    • It's not pointless when the OP was comparing the start of last season under RDM with the start of this season under Bruce. I agree there is context that makes the direct comparison difficult. I stated in my post I don't think bruce has started well enough. My only point was that if the next few games go well, which is by no means a certainty, you'd be hard pushed to argue that the start to this season is as bad as RDM's, context or no context, which again is what the OP was arguing.
    • So you've moved the goal posts?  It's not a great way to make an argument.  You selected the criteria in which to compare two things and then just shoved another 30-odd games after it's been debated that in actual terms, Bruce's record could be significantly better than RDM's at the end of the initially selected criteria.  If that's not fair, then I'm not sure what is  
    • Urgh. I do not understand how that man get's work. Just another Corden. Inexplicable. Still, that photo is promising I think
    • I think Whitehall being in Good Omens has just ruined the show for me.
    • Did you even read the post you quoted? If so how could you miss the very clear context of what it said?   But never mind as I'm clearly hysterical.
    • I saw Åtvidaberg live a few months ago. They were different level of awful and even less ambition
    • Anyone else watching the new "The Vietnam war"  TV documentary series? 2 parts in and it looks really good and interesting. It's 10 episodes and 1 aired almost every day from the 17th to the 28th. Yes it's not groundbreaking as there are countless VW documentaries, but I like that they are telling the story of not just the Americans, but also about the French and both sides of the Vietnamese. Just like they did in the "Indochine - a peoples war in color" that I thought was great.
    • This comparison seems rather pointless, seeing as RDM only ever had the 11 games with us, whereas Bruce has already overseen +40 games. In that amount of games one would have hoped he'd have been a significant improvement, but sadly that hasn't been the case.