• limpid

      Just visiting?   27/12/16

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 14)

leviramsey

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Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.

The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:

Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.

Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:

16th 0.1% +0.1%
17th 0.4% +0.2%
18th 1.3% -0.8%
19th 6.1% -4.1%
20th 92.1% +4.6%

One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.

  1. Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%)
  2. Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%)
  3. Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%)
  4. Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%)
  5. Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%)
  6. Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%)
  7. Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%)
  8. West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)

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