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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 16)

A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster? Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved. 16th 0.1% unchanged 17th 0.6% +0.1% 18th 2.4% +0.9% 19th 12.3% +4.1% 20th 84.6% -5.1% Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1% (-0.4%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 15)

Despite both Newcastle and Bournemouth notching wins, our chances of staying up managed to slightly improve. 16th 0.1% unchanged 17th 0.5% +0.1% 18th 1.5% +0.2% 19th 8.2% +2.1% 20th 89.7% -2.4% Villa: 99.4% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 78.9% (+10.5%) Bournemouth: 41.4% (-24.7%) Swansea: 36.0% (+22.3%) Newcastle: 22.9% (-25.7%) Norwich: 18.4% (+15.1%) Chelsea: 1.5% (+0.5%), West Brom: 1.5% (+1.4%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 14)

Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing. The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact: Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week. Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well: 16th 0.1% +0.1% 17th 0.4% +0.2% 18th 1.3% -0.8% 19th 6.1% -4.1% 20th 92.1% +4.6% One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference. Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%) Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%) Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%) Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%) Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%) Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%) Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%) West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 13)

I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable... The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us. The bad: It definitely didn't help us. Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat. 17th 0.2% unchanged 18th 2.1% -1.4% 19th 10.2% -7.5% 20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likely Villa: 99.8% (unchanged) Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%) Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%) Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%) Norwich: 8.5% (+3.2%) Swansea: 4.0% (+0.5%) Chelsea: 0.3% (-1.6%) West Brom: 0.1% (-3.8%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 12)

Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement. There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased! 17th 0.2% -0.1% 18th 3.5% +1.4% 19th 17.7% +6.9% ^^^ upper quartile 20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihood Villa: 99.8% (+0.2%) Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%) Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%) Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%) Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%) WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%) Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%) Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged) Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 11)

These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter. 16th 0.1% -0.3% 17th 0.3% -0.9% 18th 2.1% -1.4% 19th 10.8% -0.6% 20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihood Villa: 99.6% (+1.3%) Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%) Bournemouth: 67.7% (+12.8%) Norwich: 25.9% (+0.2%) Newcastle: 14.5% (-27.0%) WBA: 3.3% (+0.3%) Chelsea: 1.9% (+0.8%) Liverpool: 1.8% (-11.9%) Swansea: 0.5% (+0.3%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 10)

The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon. 15th 0.1% -0.3% 16th 0.4% -0.8% 17th 1.2% -2.3% 18th 3.5% -8.6% 19th 11.4% -18.6% 20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihood Villa: 98.3% Sunderland: 58.6% Bournemouth: 53.9% Newcastle: 41.5% Norwich: 25.7% Liverpool: 13.7% Watford: 3.5% WBA: 3.0% Chelsea: 1.1% Everton: 0.4% Swansea: 0.2% Stoke: 0.1%

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 9)

13th 0.1% -1.1% 14th 0.2% -2.2% 15th 0.4% -3.9% 16th 1.2% -5.7% 17th 3.5% -6.7% 18th 12.1% -2.7% ^^^ upper quartile 19th 30.0% +7.7% 20th 52.5% +15.6% Median, maximum likelihood Barring major change, I think we're nailed-on for rock-bottom. Aston Villa: 94.6% chance of relegation Sunderland: 90.8% Bournemouth: 68.2% Norwich: 16.7% Watford: 10.1% West Brom: 8.5% Liverpool: 7.5% Newcastle: 3.3% Swansea, Stoke: 0.1% Of course, it only takes one emphatic win to change the assessment, as Newcastle ably prove, but do we honestly see that sort of result coming from this incarnation of Villa?

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 8)

Has the bleeding stopped? 9th 0.1% unchanged 10th 0.1% unchanged 11th 0.2% -0.1% 12th 0.6% +0.1% 13th 1.2% +0.2% 14th 2.4% +0.8% 15th 4.3% +1.5% 16th 6.9% +1.9% 17th 10.2% +1.3% ^^^ upper quartile 18th 14.8% -1.4% 19th 22.3% -4.9% Median vvv lower quartile 20th 36.9% +0.6% Maximum likelihood Despite the increased chance of finishing rock-bottom, our overall relegation chances decreased: Villa: 74.0% (-5.7%) Sunderland: 60.2% (-23.8%) Newcastle: 52.4% (+22.6%) Bournemouth: 40.0% (-15.0%) West Brom: 35.3% (+27.7%) Watford: 22.7% (+11.9%) Liverpool: 9.0% (-10.8%) Norwich: 3.7% (-0.3%) Stoke: 1.0% (+0.9%) Chelsea: 0.9% (+0.8%) West Ham: 0.5% (-0.3%) Swansea: 0.3% (-6.2%)

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 7)

It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it? 9th 0.1% 10th 0.1% 11th 0.3% 12th 0.5% 13th 1.0% 14th 1.6% 15th 2.8% 16th 5.0% 17th 8.9% ^^^ upper quartile 18th 16.2% 19th 27.2% median, maximum likelihood vvv lower quartile 20th 36.3% I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often. Relegation chances: Sunderland: 84.0% Villa: 79.7% Bournemouth: 55.0% Newcastle: 29.8% Liverpool: 19.8% Watford: 10.8% West Brom: 7.6% Swansea: 6.5% Norwich: 4.0% Palace: 1.5% West Ham: 0.8% Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1% This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season.  Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 6)

For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up. I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments. 5th 0.1% 6th 0.1% 7th 0.2% 8th 0.3% 9th 0.6% 10th 0.8% 11th 1.3% 12th 2.2% 13th 3.4% 14th 5.2% 15th 7.4% ^^^ upper quartile 16th 10.3% 17th 13.0% 18th 16.3% median 19th 18.1% vvv lower quartile 20th 20.7% By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th. The table that came up most often in the simulation was: 1. Man City 2. Chelsea 3. Leicester City 4. Spurs 5. Everton 6. Man United 7. Swansea 8. Arsenal 9. West Brom 10. West Ham 11. Southampton 12. Watford 13. Crystal Palace 14. Stoke 15. Norwich 16. Bournemouth 17. Liverpool 18. Villa 19. Newcastle 20. Sunderland Relegation chances Sunderland 61.8% Newcastle 55.5% Villa 55.1% Liverpool 48.5% Bournemouth 33.6% Norwich 22.9% Stoke 11.1% Watford 3.0% Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4% West Ham 1.3% Swansea 1.0% West Brom 0.6% Arsenal 0.4% Man Utd 0.3% Everton 0.1%

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Picks for 10 November

YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%) Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26 NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83 Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40 Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95 Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12 Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units

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Picks for 9 November

YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%) Reims to win +319: 5 units Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79 Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94

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Picks for 26 October

YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%) West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14 Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38 Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70 Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units

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Picks for 19 October

YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%) Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71 Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40 WBA DNB +120: 6 units Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18 Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54

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Picks for 29 September

YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%) Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54 Torino +1 +100: 6 units Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22 Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units

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Picks for 28 September

YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%) Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58 Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36 Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33 Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85

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Picks for 26 September

YTD: 56-77, -113.71 units (-9.61%) Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42 Betis to win +295: 7 units Betis DNB +189: 11 units Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66

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  • Posts

    • Why is it? What do you know to know it is?
    • There is no question that he is in the decline stage of his career and will almost certainly play less games each season that he continues. That doesn't mean he wouldn't be good enough for us next season, but each season the risk to his club increases. If we had have signed Terry again, we would have needed more cover than we will signing a younger center back which in our financial situation has got to count against us making him an offer.
    • I would have love doing terry to stay but no getting out of it he is 38 I don’t think he will get as many games as this year next season.
    • I think that is bloody awful
    • Why do you think he’s awful?
    • And they were hardly convincing in doing so. Could this be England's year?
    • I wouldn't be to bothered to be honest, he was good but not as good as James Chester, I'd much rather us get axel back from utd on loan and play him at cb than go with JT again.   
    • Was having this conversation on Twitter. Believe it was Houghton in 94?
    • Tells us a lot but means very little at this stage. Spain won in 2010 and lost their opening match 1-0 to Switzerland. Spain, Portugal and Mexico have impressed. Russia and Croatia have beaten some really poor teams so it's hard to really judge Uruguay, Serbia and France have struggled to victory. Denmark did a real smash and grab job on Peru. Who, like Germany and Brazil tonight and Argentina would be alright if they shot on target and not at the keeper and didn't miss penalties etc. All of them could easily improve. Iceland and Switzerland will be happier with the draws than the South American giants but none of them lost their opener either.  Iran beating Morocco seems pretty inconsequential in the great scheme of things. Egypt offer little without Salah. Australia miss a Cahill/Viduka type focal point. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Costa Rica have been pretty poor. 2 days to go till the second round of group games kicks off with Russia Egypt on Tuesday night. Salah had better be fit really or Egypt are off home. Sweden v S.Korea should be feisty after Mexico's shock win. England and Belgium get stuck in against Tunisia and Panama and I'm looking forward to Japan v Colombia much more than Poland v Senegal although Lewandowski is one of those players who could set the tournament alight with goals and more goals as is Mane and that Senegal team is no Nigeria. Still bloody love the World Cup me