Transfer Speculation (Summer 2013)

[VillaCas]

 

 

 

I would imagine we are a lot lower than the time of McLeish to be honest, let's remember firstly that McLeish had Keane & Jenas on the payroll for a part of that season both of whom would have been on decent money to say the least, now also from that squad we've since lost Heskey, Cuellar, both before Lambert even arrived and added Holman. PL then added El Ahmadi, Lowton, Vlaar, Bennett, Benteke, Bowery & Westwood. In the same window he sold Collins to West Ham for £3m. In January he added Dawkins & Sylla and late last season he also got rid of Warnock, if you believe reports that 180k (Heskey, Cuellar, Collins,  Warnock) a week off the books, not including the money that was spent on Jenas & Keane. Now none of that includes that Hutton & Makoun were both on loan although it's probable not all wages were covered. Since the end of last season, we have seen Petrov retire & Dunne leave according to reports another 120k a week. Dawkins, Marshall, Lichaj, Holman & Makoun have also moved on I'd imagine that's close to another 80k a week there. He's added the 6 this summer all of whom I'd imagine are on under 20k a week and given 7 players from last year new deals. 

 

 

You could be right, if so I think it's still marginal - we don't know, but personally I don't think we are better off

 

Heskey, Cuellar, Collins, Makoun, Warnock, Petrov, Dunne are major expenses off the bill (plus 5 or 6 other minor players gone)

 

But....

 

We have signed 15 new players in and promoted 5 or 6 from the academy and given improved contracts to quite a number

 

We need to get rid of the bomb squad before we are really see any real progress

 

 

See what your saying VillaCas but I think we saw progress at the end of last season. If we can keep that going this year we will hit midtable and more comfortable season.

 

I think most of us would take that gladly after the last few years.

 

You are saying there is still a way to go financially so we wont be able to add real quality for a little while. I think that's fair enough but hopefully if the team continues to progress then we'll only need 1/2 top players to help push us on to challenging the top 5/6/7/8 positions.

 

 

Sorry....we may be a cross purposes. I think we have seen real progress under Lambert and I am happy with the way the squad is shaping up, but my point is that we are still miles away from sorting out the financial mess we were in

 

One or two top players would indeed help us challenge nearer the top but until the deadweight is moved out we will still be waiting

[Folski]

 

 

 

As a matter of interest how much do you assume our new players are on per week?

 

 

The latest batch? I'd guess around £15k a week? Okore probably more than that? I'm not sure but nothing like Bent, Ireland etc

 

As stated above most probably are on less than that and probably in single figures. Take a look where they have come from and what those clubs would have paid them before. Young players signing for Premiership clubs doesn't always immediately equate to a massive wage increase when you also consider that with the exception of Okore most of our signings have been relatively unknown quantities.

 

I would say their contracts are structured to take into consideration the risk our club is taking on bringing them to our club in the first place. If they don't work out then there hasn't been an initial massive outlay on them but if they are successful then their structured contact would take care of the player.

 

I'm sure its the same with most other Premiership clubs signing raw young players but most other Premiership clubs are not using the extensive youth policy that we are now trying to put in place and hence the probable protection (low wages) for the club although some might say we have gone too far with that policy but that is another debate entirely. 

 

 

I don't know about single figures Morpheus, (to be fair in the grand scheme of thing we are debating over pennies) Steer I'd imagine may be on single figures but Okore, Helenius & Tonev are all full internationals, while Bacuna (another who could well be in single figures) & Luna were U21 internationals. I do think it's possible that all could be in single figures since where they have come from but I would say all are on at least 10k a week. What do you reckon Burke & Carruthers are on? In my opinion Villa have no problem paying players money (and this summer I was very impressed the way they reward last years best & brightest) the problem always has been players have been getting more for doing nothing than the ones who have been saving our bacon, the like of the Beye's, Sidwell's, Davies, the problem was we replace these with even worse ones, Ireland, Given, NZogbia and gave them even more money. 

[Mazrim]

We are most certainly better off from a wages to turnover point of view now. The wages of Dunne and Bent probably account for the combined salary of all this summers signings so far, for instance.

[VillaCas]

We're potentially in a better position for the future.

Instead of having ageing players, past their best, on large contracts, we'll have younger players on smaller contracts. These younger players will either get better and earn bigger (but not stupid) contracts, will be sold for high profits (to be re-invested into the team) or if they don't make the cut, they will be sold or left on reasonable 'squad/ backup' status contracts.

 

Of course that is all true but at the moment we have a deadweight holding us back - half a dozen players (I'm inlcuding Bent) who represent 40% of our wage bill.

[Morpheus]

 

 

 

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

 

I think you're right that new signings are on a fraction of the money paid to bomb squad players, depending on the player between £12-£20k a week, but even so I don't think we are yet any better off, despite the sacrifices of last season.

 

Also problematic is that despite signing players on low wages, we are now in a period of needing to offer improved contracts as players (Lowton, Benteke, Weimann, Baker etc) begin to prove themseleves

 

 

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

 

Yes, that must be true of course but in pure financial terms we are not saving anything yet

 

I personally feel that although the figures you quote are reasonable i would suggest that the new players are on no-where near twenty grand per week and indeed lower than twelve.

 

Wages therefore have been brought down dramatically and some of the players are probably earning wages on a parody with some Championship clubs.

 

However, if for instance Lowton and Westwood repeat the success of last season then i do agree with you to have any chance of keeping those players their wages will have to be increased dramatically and there in lies the problem that to run a successful Premiership club you cannot expect to keep the overall wages expenditure where it now and statistically low.

 

The difference being that players on good wages will actually be earning those wages by playing every week something which we haven't had at the club for a considerable amount of time.

 

 

I understand that Lowton, Westwood, Bennett etc came on board for around £10-£12k a week. I also understand that the players signed this close season were slightly more, Okore in particular is I think on £20k

 

We might be slightly better off or slightly worse off but the main thrust of my point was that the financial mess that we (they) allowed themselves to get into is still a long way from being sorted

 

I agree with your other points completely

 

Where are you predicting for us this season Morpheus? (I'm mid-table at 10th but hoping for better!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

 

I think you're right that new signings are on a fraction of the money paid to bomb squad players, depending on the player between £12-£20k a week, but even so I don't think we are yet any better off, despite the sacrifices of last season.

 

Also problematic is that despite signing players on low wages, we are now in a period of needing to offer improved contracts as players (Lowton, Benteke, Weimann, Baker etc) begin to prove themseleves

 

 

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

 

Yes, that must be true of course but in pure financial terms we are not saving anything yet

 

I personally feel that although the figures you quote are reasonable i would suggest that the new players are on no-where near twenty grand per week and indeed lower than twelve.

 

Wages therefore have been brought down dramatically and some of the players are probably earning wages on a parody with some Championship clubs.

 

However, if for instance Lowton and Westwood repeat the success of last season then i do agree with you to have any chance of keeping those players their wages will have to be increased dramatically and there in lies the problem that to run a successful Premiership club you cannot expect to keep the overall wages expenditure where it now and statistically low.

 

The difference being that players on good wages will actually be earning those wages by playing every week something which we haven't had at the club for a considerable amount of time.

 

 

 

Where are you predicting for us this season Morpheus? (I'm mid-table at 10th but hoping for better!)

 

We're great going forward. That is our strength as long as we can keep the big man fit.

 

I am however still concerned about the spine of our team in reference through our defence to midfield which i still think has an overall weakness in strength in the air and lacking a pit bull in midfield. Okore might be the one to take more responsibility for crosses coming into our box and Sylla might actually grow some more to be that pit bull?

 

Therefore rather than requiring an AM i still feel we might need to get a better balance the the areas suggested above but i don't think that will happen.

 

With that in mind i still think we'll struggle but not to the extent of last year and will probably finish around mid table but i'd like the option to review that depending on whether we bring a few more in before the window closes.

[Rob182]

I'd say we're almost out of the financial mess tbh. As soon as Bent, Given & Ireland are gone, I think we'll be fine.

I don't think Hutton or Bannan's wages are high enough to cause us great concern, they're just not wanted at the club.

Though we've added a lot of players, I would put my house on the majority of them being on much smaller contracts than the players they're replacing.

When we consider that we used to have Clark, Cuellar, Dunne & Collins as our CB options, who were probably on a combined total of around 150k p/w. That has now been replaced by Clark, Baker, Okore & Vlaar, who are probably on no more than £100k p/w combined, it all adds up.

[VillaCas]

 

As stated above most probably are on less than that and probably in single figures. Take a look where they have come from and what those clubs would have paid them before. Young players signing for Premiership clubs doesn't always immediately equate to a massive wage increase when you also consider that with the exception of Okore most of our signings have been relatively unknown quantities.

 

I would say their contracts are structured to take into consideration the risk our club is taking on bringing them to our club in the first place. If they don't work out then there hasn't been an initial massive outlay on them but if they are successful then their structured contract would take care of the player.

 

I'm sure its the same with most other Premiership clubs signing raw young players but most other Premiership clubs are not using the extensive youth policy that we are now trying to put in place and hence the probable protection (low wages) for the club although some might say we have gone too far with that policy but that is another debate entirely. 

 

 

Personally, I doubt that they are that cheap but who knows - whatever, I really like the way the squad is shaping up

 

I've got high hopes for Okore, Tonev and Luna in particular

Edited August 16, 2013 by VillaCas

[Folski]

 

Sorry....we may be a cross purposes. I think we have seen real progress under Lambert and I am happy with the way the squad is shaping up, but my point is that we are still miles away from sorting out the financial mess we were in

 

One or two top players would indeed help us challenge nearer the top but until the deadweight is moved out we will still be waiting

 

 

I don't think we are as far as you think Cas, all things good we have a big wage in Bent off the books soon enough. Ireland is in the last year of his deal so thankfully we only have 44 weeks left with him. If Bent has a good year at Fulham, and hopefully Berbatov can make him look very good we'll have both of those gone by next year, that would be a substantial hole in the bomb squad. Bannan & Delfouneso are also out of contract next summer. While I'll admit we aren't they're yet we can see light at the end of the tunnel. 

[VillaCas]

I'd say we're almost out of the financial mess tbh. As soon as Bent, Given & Ireland are gone, I think we'll be fine.

I don't think Hutton or Bannan's wages are high enough to cause us great concern, they're just not wanted at the club.

Though we've added a lot of players, I would put my house on the majority of them being on much smaller contracts than the players they're replacing.

When we consider that we used to have Clark, Cuellar, Dunne & Collins as our CB options, who were probably on a combined total of around 150k p/w. That has now been replaced by Clark, Baker, Okore & Vlaar, who are probably on no more than £100k p/w combined, it all adds up.

 

True but sadly I bet we are still talking about Bent, Given and Ireland next close season!!

[VillaCas]

 

 

Sorry....we may be a cross purposes. I think we have seen real progress under Lambert and I am happy with the way the squad is shaping up, but my point is that we are still miles away from sorting out the financial mess we were in

 

One or two top players would indeed help us challenge nearer the top but until the deadweight is moved out we will still be waiting

 

 

I don't think we are as far as you think Cas, all things good we have a big wage in Bent off the books soon enough. Ireland is in the last year of his deal so thankfully we only have 44 weeks left with him. If Bent has a good year at Fulham, and hopefully Berbatov can make him look very good we'll have both of those gone by next year, that would be a substantial hole in the bomb squad. Bannan & Delfouneso are also out of contract next summer. While I'll admit we aren't they're yet we can see light at the end of the tunnel. 

 

 

Hopefully!

 

We are def on the right track but I will on really be happy when they've all departed

 

Amazingly once the bomb squad has gone, Delph will be the only non-Lambert / home grown player on the books - an incredible turn around

 

Credit to Lambert for making this happen so quickly (relatively), with minimal resources and whilst retaining our premiership status

[Morpheus]

 

 

 

 

As a matter of interest how much do you assume our new players are on per week?

 

 

The latest batch? I'd guess around £15k a week? Okore probably more than that? I'm not sure but nothing like Bent, Ireland etc

 

As stated above most probably are on less than that and probably in single figures. Take a look where they have come from and what those clubs would have paid them before. Young players signing for Premiership clubs doesn't always immediately equate to a massive wage increase when you also consider that with the exception of Okore most of our signings have been relatively unknown quantities.

 

I would say their contracts are structured to take into consideration the risk our club is taking on bringing them to our club in the first place. If they don't work out then there hasn't been an initial massive outlay on them but if they are successful then their structured contact would take care of the player.

 

I'm sure its the same with most other Premiership clubs signing raw young players but most other Premiership clubs are not using the extensive youth policy that we are now trying to put in place and hence the probable protection (low wages) for the club although some might say we have gone too far with that policy but that is another debate entirely. 

 

 

I don't know about single figures Morpheus, (to be fair in the grand scheme of thing we are debating over pennies) Steer I'd imagine may be on single figures but Okore, Helenius & Tonev are all full internationals, while Bacuna (another who could well be in single figures) & Luna were U21 internationals. I do think it's possible that all could be in single figures since where they have come from but I would say all are on at least 10k a week. What do you reckon Burke & Carruthers are on? In my opinion Villa have no problem paying players money (and this summer I was very impressed the way they reward last years best & brightest) the problem always has been players have been getting more for doing nothing than the ones who have been saving our bacon, the like of the Beye's, Sidwell's, Davies, the problem was we replace these with even worse ones, Ireland, Given, NZogbia and gave them even more money. 

 

Yeah mate it sounds pretty low alright but even though Helenius, Tonev, Bacuna and Luna are internationals it would be interesting to find out what their weekly wage was before moving to us? Its only a suggestion but i would hazard a guess that their wages were extremely low. Okore is probably on more but maybe not as much as one would think.

 

Fully agree with your point that we're bringing in players who will be used more and i've already alluded to that with VillaCas.

 

Overall though i do think the wage structure has been improved dramatically not only concerning the amount payed to players but the actual value we are now getting from those players who will be earning their wages on the pitch rather than off it.

 

Since that may now be the case it will be interesting to see when the leaches have all gone what type of investment will be given to the manager? 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Morpheus

[Zatman]

 

 

Amazingly once the bomb squad has gone, Delph will be the only non-Lambert / home grown player on the books - an incredible turn around

 

might have re-signed him but id include Guzan with Delph

[Genie]

I do trust Lambert in the transfer market, he has proved himself to get it right more than he gets its wrong (everyone buys the odd dud from time to time). Saying that, it would be nice if he pulled a bit of a household 'name' out of the hat to get excited about.

[VillaCas]

 

We're great going forward. That is our strength as long as we can keep the big man fit.

 

 

I am however still concerned about the spine of our team in reference through our defence to midfield which i still think has an overall weakness in strength in the air and lacking a pit bull in midfield. Okore might be the one to take more responsibility for crosses coming into our box and Sylla might actually grow some more to be that pit bull?

 

Therefore rather than requiring an AM i still feel we might need to get a better balance the the areas suggested above but i don't think that will happen.

 

With that in mind i still think we'll struggle but not to the extent of last year and will probably finish around mid table but i'd like the option to review that depending on whether we bring a few more in before the window closes.

 

 

I agree with your assessment. For me it's not an issue that one or two new players will solve - we will need to keep building and gradually upgrade players as we go. It's a journey

 

Next year I see us again playing mainly 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3.

 

The defence is what it is and we have got to hope that Okore makes a difference and that Vlaar benefits from having a hopefully strong CB partner (I'm worried that the tough opening fixtures will hinder Okore's bedding in period though). Luna may make a difference he too

 

Up front we look strong with Gabby, Benteke and Weimann supported by Helenius, Tonev, Bacuna plus some good young talent emerging Bowery, Drennan, Grealish, Burke

 

It is in midfield that we could still struggle - Delph, Westwood, Sylla are all improving players but might not be enough? Maybe Gardner can emerge into the strong defensive MF we need but we could really do with a better version of Zog who can unlock defences when required. I'd welcome Milner back with open arms

 

A mid-table finish 10-12th would do me and then a few upgrades next close season

 

It would be nice to win a bit of silverware sometime though wouldn't it

[Morpheus]

Yeah for once we are in full agreement and i just feel with a little more investment in the right areas we could be the surprise package this season a la Swansea.

 

Can't wait for the season to start though and its important that everyone recognises that due to our fixture list we might be near the bottom again after the first few games.

 

I reserve my right though that if we are near the bottom again after twelve games that i can ask for Lambert to be sacked and replaced by Redknapp.   

[Nabby]

I think if you look at the outlays made by Swansea and Norwich you can see where we will be next summer.They had no high wage earners so have been able to channel the extra TV money into transfer fee's.We still need to clear the decks before we can do that.

 

However I am hopeful there will be another signing or 2.I think also likes of Hutton will leave perm or more likely on loan towards  the end of the window

[tomaspg]

i dont think were in a that much more solid possition, unless we get a couple more solid players in i think well still be fighting for a spot around 13-16th, dont think were in much risk of beeing relegated but were still gonna have a tough time. Another quality signing or two and we might edge up a couple of more spots but other teams will have improved aswell.  AM and a CB would be on the top of my list!

[Nabby]

I agree with that Swansea ,Norwich and Fulham have all improved alot.

 

Sunderland is a weird one ,been tipped for relegation by many but as they have basically a whole new team it's hard to say how they will perform right now.

[StefanAVFC]

We have basically the same team that gelled so well and were in top 8 form at the end of the season. We have added positively to that team. I just don't see how people can say we'll be as low as 16th this year.

[Papillon]

We have basically the same team that gelled so well and were in top 8 form at the end of the season. We have added positively to that team. I just don't see how people can say we'll be as low as 16th this year.

 

Because we cannot discard the beginning of the season, form is temporary etc. Arsenal won a hell of a lot of matches at the end of the season, does that mean they will win the league easily this season? They will probably end up 20 points behind the best teams once again, as usual. Liverpool-fans love taking form and positive things into the season, because they were decent at the end of last term when most teams were on holiday. Just wait and see, they will be 30 points behind as always. We won games when we had tons of motivation and pressure to win, does not mean we will continue that form. I think we will be better, I don't think we will struggle with the ghost of relegation as much as last season - but we will certainly be down there after 5-10 games. We haven't really strengthened our first-XI to be honest, and we have spent very little money compared to some of our rivals. There is still time to do business, but I think clubs like Newcastle will do a lot of business towards September and not us. They already have a much better squad than us, with flair players we can only dream of, but luckily they have an average manager and **** up system with Kinnear looking over things.. I would have wished for us to do some more heavy business, because we are very reliant on players like Tonev and Bacuna taking the level immediately to be top 10. That is a big ask, when they come from inferior leagues with a limited reputation themselves. Here is for hoping of course, we cannot do anything else than that.