The Randy Lerner thread

[rodders0223]

2 hours ago, Grasshopper said:

A few weeks ago I was ridiculed over  some of my posts.

So here's a "Big 'un" to upset the deluded.

1) we are going down bar a RG lead miracle.

2) RL has appointed SH to cut costs & asset strip to get his £200mill back and sell for £50mill

3) IF!!!!!!!!!!! We stay up, expect much of the same - 17th = success

4) If we go down (very possible) SH will re-valuate, cut costs & asset strip.

5) Cost cutting & Asset stripping will be SH's brief untill we are sold.

6) in the event of us going down and not being "Profitable" for RL to get monies back untill we are sold for the price he is prepared to take a "Hit" at. We will be downscaled further untill its possible.

Further relegations will only be a matter of time.

This is not doing a Leeds. Forest or Pompey. This is a whole new scale.

In future "Doing a Villa" will set a record no other PL club will ever be able to achieve.

31.01.2016 Grasshopper

Hyperbole much

[Dodgyknees]

1 hour ago, Mantis said:

It's drivel because it's completely unrealistic. This idea that we'll somehow plummet through the leagues and end up in League 2 in 4 years time is just nonsense.

There's so much bed-wetting going on here.

Your opinion that it won't is drivel. 

The next opinion is drivel too.

And so on.

It certainly isn't unrealistic.

 

[OLDVILLAIN]

People arguing about what level of trouble the club is in.

The club is clearly in freefall,even the least clued in non supporter can see that.

The owner,board and the management have not said a word which is a slap in the face to the season ticket holders in my opinion.

The empty seats yesterday spoke volumes...but will it be enough to stir the board into action and to outlay their plans for the club going forward?

Times are going to be interesting as we go forward...for good or for bad.

[HanoiVillan]

40 minutes ago, DK82 said:

Your opinion that it won't is drivel. 

The next opinion is drivel too.

And so on.

It certainly isn't unrealistic.

 

Yes, it is. 

And we won't be in a division below League 2 either. 

[foreveryoung]

15 minutes ago, OLDVILLAIN said:

People arguing about what level of trouble the club is in.

The club is clearly in freefall,even the least clued in non supporter can see that.

The owner,board and the management have not said a word which is a slap in the face to the season ticket holders in my opinion.

The empty seats yesterday spoke volumes...but will it be enough to stir the board into action and to outlay their plans for the club going forward?

Times are going to be interesting as we go forward...for good or for bad.

This is wrong, Hollis has spoken to his consumers, but ignore us fans. You can't go back on a comment like that.

[HanoiVillan]

11 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

This is wrong, Hollis has spoken to his consumers, but ignore us fans. You can't go back on a comment like that.

You're right, he certainly won't be able to recover his reputation in the estimation of people absolutely determined to take a quote out of context and turn it into a stick to beat him with. 

[terrytini]

2 hours ago, Mantis said:

Even that's an overreaction. Nobody is saying it's a certainty that we'll come back up but the idea that the best we can hope for is mid-table in the Championship is absurd.

 

2 hours ago, Mantis said:

 

I never said I think we will be challenging for promotion next season, just that it certainly can't be counted out like many are doing. I'd like to know what gives you the confidence that the best we can hope for is mid-table?

Personally I think people are overreacting to the lack of money being spent this January.

Hmmmm....you think it absurd that the best we hope for is mid-table, yet you are not convinced we'll be challenging for promotion ?

Where then ? Because in the Championship mid table is 12th, Promotion is from 6th up, so challenging for promotion usually involves teams who are down to about 12th until the final few weeks.......sorry just can't work out what you think from that, especially as you think the idea it would be mid table is absurd, not unlikely, or less possible, but absurd ?

Next, speaking for myself I will rise above calling people who disagree 'drivel'  'bed-wetters' - can't we just have the discussion ?....

Seeing as nobody knows how bad (or good) the future will be it is a bit much for those who have a dim view of it to be spoken to as if we are idiots.

How about instead you say WHY you are SO SURE it is simply not possible that what happened to those Clubs could happen to us?  Its only what 4 years ago Liverpool were close to having the plug pulled by their Bank.  Chelsea were worried for years that Abramhovic could utterly sink the Club if he walked, yet he had clear history of actually watching the Club, being around, and, most crucially, always spending more when they faltered. There are thousands and thousands of institutions that were here one day, and are now gone.  Some of them far better run, far better supported, and far better cared for, than this one.

Liquidation is of course, a more unlikely scenario - but it is a genuine possibility. As for dropping the Leagues, even more possible.  As for getting stuck in the Championship, well I don't see why on earth you think that is so hard to imagine.

And I for one am certainly not over reacting to us not spending in January, I'm not a little child.  In fact we have spent just what I expected us to. I'm just using my eyes and ears and forming a view.  If you and others think it over the top then good luck, I hope you are right.  Trouble is, if we are right, by the time you see it it will be way,way too late.

[Mantis]

1 hour ago, DK82 said:

Your opinion that it won't is drivel. 

The next opinion is drivel too.

And so on.

It certainly isn't unrealistic.

 

What, that we'll get relegated down to League 2? Yes, it is. If that isn't realistic then neither is saying that we're going to be challenging for the Premier League in a couple of seasons time (which nobody has said because nobody is that silly).

[terrytini]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

You're right, he certainly won't be able to recover his reputation in the estimation of people absolutely determined to take a quote out of context and turn it into a stick to beat him with. 

Well, for one, I couldn't care less what he calls us.

Just this. Is he there to make this Club great again, or to protect Randys finances.  (Or, I suppose there are some who think he is here to do both).

I know which I think, and it is based on several years, not one comment.  It is based on the guys c.v. It is based on his comments as regards the value of money in all this. And it is based on what Ive seen many times before in many Clubs and many industries.

But I no have problem with those who think it will all turn out alright when he has sorted out our infrastructure, or whatever else he was trying to say is most important.

Seeing as this is an issue of views of what is to come, I see no problem in people seeing it differen tly, but why are those who think it will be ok so upset at those who don't ?

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, terrytini said:

 

Hmmmm....you think it absurd that the best we hope for is mid-table, yet you are not convinced we'll be challenging for promotion ?

Where then ? Because in the Championship mid table is 12th, Promotion is from 6th up, so challenging for promotion usually involves teams who are down to about 12th until the final few weeks.......sorry just can't work out what you think from that, especially as you think the idea it would be mid table is absurd, not unlikely, or less possible, but absurd ?

Next, speaking for myself I will rise above calling people who disagree 'drivel'  'bed-wetters' - can't we just have the discussion ?....

Seeing as nobody knows how bad (or good) the future will be it is a bit much for those who have a dim view of it to be spoken to as if we are idiots.

How about instead you say WHY you are SO SURE it is simply not possible that what happened to those Clubs could happen to us?  Its only what 4 years ago Liverpool were close to having the plug pulled by their Bank.  Chelsea were worried for years that Abramhovic could utterly sink the Club if he walked, yet he had clear history of actually watching the Club, being around, and, most crucially, always spending more when they faltered. There are thousands and thousands of institutions that were here one day, and are now gone.  Some of them far better run, far better supported, and far better cared for, than this one.

Liquidation is of course, a more unlikely scenario - but it is a genuine possibility. As for dropping the Leagues, even more possible.  As for getting stuck in the Championship, well I don't see why on earth you think that is so hard to imagine.

And I for one am certainly not over reacting to us not spending in January, I'm not a little child.  In fact we have spent just what I expected us to. I'm just using my eyes and ears and forming a view.  If you and others think it over the top then good luck, I hope you are right.  Trouble is, if we are right, by the time you see it it will be way,way too late.

Okay, you win. It's completely sensible for people to say we're going to be 'a whole new scale' worse than Portsmouth. There's no way that's ridiculous, and it definitely deserves a very serious, chin-stroking response. 

I am an unserious person, so I will finish my role in the conversation here, and allow the adults - most definitely very continent adults - to continue the discussion about Aston Villa's future in a divison lower than League Two with the gravitas that it deserves. 

[Richard]

The reason why I suspect we will be in the championship for a while and actually battling against relegation is that even clubs in that league appear to have spending power that we cannot compete with. We have a poor squad, teams that go down with us will be in a better place than us, the whole club smells of failure, we have a hoard not interested in football and there are clubs that will remain in the championship after this season who will be far more competitive than us. Oh and the number of local derbies with the opposition teams being more up for it than us will seriously affect our results. 

 

[terrytini]

I win ?

 

Really ?

 

Glad you've left it to us then.

[Dodgyknees]

10 minutes ago, Mantis said:

What, that we'll get relegated down to League 2? Yes, it is. If that isn't realistic then neither is saying that we're going to be challenging for the Premier League in a couple of seasons time (which nobody has said because nobody is that silly).

I don't think we will (I think L1 is likely) but it's not unrealistic either. 

[Mantis]

5 minutes ago, terrytini said:

 

Hmmmm....you think it absurd that the best we hope for is mid-table, yet you are not convinced we'll be challenging for promotion ?

Where then ? Because in the Championship mid table is 12th, Promotion is from 6th up, so challenging for promotion usually involves teams who are down to about 12th until the final few weeks.......sorry just can't work out what you think from that, especially as you think the idea it would be mid table is absurd, not unlikely, or less possible, but absurd ?

Next, speaking for myself I will rise above calling people who disagree 'drivel'  'bed-wetters' - can't we just have the discussion ?....

Seeing as nobody knows how bad (or good) the future will be it is a bit much for those who have a dim view of it to be spoken to as if we are idiots.

How about instead you say WHY you are SO SURE it is simply not possible that what happened to those Clubs could happen to us?  Its only what 4 years ago Liverpool were close to having the plug pulled by their Bank.  Chelsea were worried for years that Abramhovic could utterly sink the Club if he walked, yet he had clear history of actually watching the Club, being around, and, most crucially, always spending more when they faltered. There are thousands and thousands of institutions that were here one day, and are now gone.  Some of them far better run, far better supported, and far better cared for, than this one.

Liquidation is of course, a more unlikely scenario - but it is a genuine possibility. As for dropping the Leagues, even more possible.  As for getting stuck in the Championship, well I don't see why on earth you think that is so hard to imagine.

And I for one am certainly not over reacting to us not spending in January, I'm not a little child.  In fact we have spent just what I expected us to. I'm just using my eyes and ears and forming a view.  If you and others think it over the top then good luck, I hope you are right.  Trouble is, if we are right, by the time you see it it will be way,way too late.

I'm not convinced as in I'm not completely confident. We just don't know what's going to happen at this stage so I think many of the predictions are a bit premature.

Please can you just read the post you quoted? I didn't say "the idea that we'll finish mid-table is absurd". What I actually said was that the idea that that was the best we could hope for is absurd. Is it really so hard?

Why am I sure that we won't drop down into League 2? Because such a thing is so rare. Literally the only recent example I can think of of a semi-big PL club that dropped down into League 2 is Portsmouth and there were clear financial reasons for that, a situation that was clear even when they were in the Premier League (they were docked points in 2009/10 remember). Of course you can never be 100% sure but you can be near enough.

You can "rise above" whatever you want but in my sincere opinion some people are overreacting quite hysterically. The fact that we're even talking about being in League 2 shows that some people are in need of a reality check.

[VillaChris]

9 minutes ago, Richard said:

The reason why I suspect we will be in the championship for a while and actually battling against relegation is that even clubs in that league appear to have spending power that we cannot compete with. We have a poor squad, teams that go down with us will be in a better place than us, the whole club smells of failure, we have a hoard not interested in football and there are clubs that will remain in the championship after this season who will be far more competitive than us. Oh and the number of local derbies with the opposition teams being more up for it than us will seriously affect our results. 

 

You've got to think a takeover will happen at some point surely.

I personally think we'll be sold at some stage next season, Lerner will reduce the asking price as he'll just want to get out. Whether the new owners are suitable or not obviously I can't answer that but please just some fresh ideas and direction please.

[Mantis]

10 minutes ago, DK82 said:

I don't think we will (I think L1 is likely) but it's not unrealistic either. 

How is it not unrealistic? Even Leeds never went that far and their financial situation was much more acute - and financial collapse is the only way clubs of our size end up that far down by the way.

I'd also be interested to know why you think going down to League 1 is likely? I'm not going to rule that out completely but it is pretty unrealistic.

[terrytini]

Sorry Mantis it still sounds like you are on the one hand fiercely opposed to the idea things could get a lot worse, yet also nowhere near sure that they will be ok ? I just struggle with that.

Yes I will rise above name calling, sorry if you feel the need to pull me up on that.

I've got no issue with you saying you think its an overreaction, but why say hysterically.  I'm not hysterical, if anything, some of the Posts against the doom view are the more hyperbolic. We are being possibly apocalyptical, but that's not the same thing !

And reality check you say.  If I'd suggested to you at Wembley as Milners' penalty went in that in in 6 years we'd be looking at the Championship, I'm going to guess you would have said I was being unrealistic - yet the fall from where we were to here is a lot harder than the fall from here another 25 places down to League One.

Or if you'd asked a Leicester fan last Christmas ? Or a Chelsea fan ?  Or if you' d asked about Man United when Fergie won his last title ? Of course League 2 is less likely, but it isn't impossible. And who's to say what would happen even if we got marooned in the Championship. You don't have to be in League 2 to go under.

[Mantis]

9 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Sorry Mantis it still sounds like you are on the one hand fiercely opposed to the idea things could get a lot worse, yet also nowhere near sure that they will be ok ? I just struggle with that.

Yes I will rise above name calling, sorry if you feel the need to pull me up on that.

I've got no issue with you saying you think its an overreaction, but why say hysterically.  I'm not hysterical, if anything, some of the Posts against the doom view are the more hyperbolic. We are being possibly apocalyptical, but that's not the same thing !

And reality check you say.  If I'd suggested to you at Wembley as Milners' penalty went in that in in 6 years we'd be looking at the Championship, I'm going to guess you would have said I was being unrealistic - yet the fall from where we were to here is a lot harder than the fall from here another 25 places down to League One.

Or if you'd asked a Leicester fan last Christmas ? Or a Chelsea fan ?  Or if you' d asked about Man United when Fergie won his last title ? Of course League 2 is less likely, but it isn't impossible. And who's to say what would happen even if we got marooned in the Championship. You don't have to be in League 2 to go under.

Not at all. I completely accept they could get worse (and for me, anything less than bouncing straight back up would be getting a lot worse) I can just see that the chances of us going down to League 2 or even League 1 are very very unlikely. As I said though, I'm certainly not sure that we'll come straight back up - we could definitely end up in the same position as say, Middlesbrough were when they went down.

Yes, hysterical. Saying that we could end up going down to League 2 is hysterical. I'm sorry but it is.

And that's a flawed comparison. Surely you can see the difference between a top 6 club getting relegated in the space of 6 years and a PL club of our size dropping all the way down to League 1? I'm baffled as to how you can think going from 6th to 19th/20th is somehow a bigger drop than dropping through an entire division.

I never said League 2 was impossible, just very unlikely. Your tactic of selecting occurrences which were once deemed unlikely isn't a very good one because for every one that came true there were dozens of just as unlikely outcomes that didn't.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Mantis

[jackbauer24]

It is easier to fail than it is to achieve. It takes lots of money, talent and luck to get to the top but to fail just requires neglect. We are being neglected so the decline becomes quicker and quicker until it becomes an almost unrecoverable spriral. 

Left as we are then it is easily imaginable that we are more likely to find ourselves in League One or Two than it is to say we'd be back fighting in the top half of the Premier League. There might be a level which is as far as a big club like we are (were) could fall but in all likelihood that is a fair bit further yet.

We may all hope we can bounce back up, but knowing what we do of Lerner's interest in our success, then the odds of dropping further must surely be higher than instant promotion. That doesn't mean we'll get relegated season on season, the decline would likely be slower than that, but without investment then the only way is down.

[Mantis]

6 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

It is easier to fail than it is to achieve. It takes lots of money, talent and luck to get to the top but to fail just requires neglect. We are being neglected so the decline becomes quicker and quicker until it becomes an almost unrecoverable spriral. 

Left as we are then it is easily imaginable that we are more likely to find ourselves in League One or Two than it is to say we'd be back fighting in the top half of the Premier League. There might be a level which is as far as a big club like we are (were) could fall but in all likelihood that is a fair bit further yet.

We may all hope we can bounce back up, but knowing what we do of Lerner's interest in our success, then the odds of dropping further must surely be higher than instant promotion. That doesn't mean we'll get relegated season on season, the decline would likely be slower than that, but without investment then the only way is down.

You're missing the point a bit - it's not like we're not going to spend or are only going to spend peanuts for the next few years. The reason why we're not spending now for example is because there's so little hope of staying up. It's in Lerner's interest that we bounce back up or at least give it a try.