MessiWillSignForVilla Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) Imagine if we had played a full season like we've been playing since Sherwood came in.. We'd finish 10th or 11th. Which I'd take in a heartbeat! If we somehow managed to keep Sherwoods current record up for an entire season, we'd have 57 points. In the last 5 seasons that would have got us 7/8th for all but the 09/10 season, where it would have got 9th. Even this season, 57 guarantees at least 8th. If we managed to sustain our current form over next season, we'd almost definitely get 8th, although I doubt Sherwood will manage to keep this up over an entire season. I'd take 12th or above next season. Edit: Done that working out wrong, it would get us 50 points, which is probably a little low for 8th. Edited May 7, 2015 by MessiWillSignForVilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 I think without Benteke's goals (whether he moves away or gets injured again) will show that our squad is still a little thin of regular goal scoring aplomb to achieve a top 8 finish right now. We have been in Top 6 form of late, but I think we still need a back up foil for Benteke whether he stays, goes or gets crocked. We won't be top 8 next season. And we haven't been top 6 form of late. Not even close (we're 13th in the form table) It will be interesting to see the table since Sherwood took charge at the end of the season. It will be skewed slightly by the first two defeats which were a bit of an outlier compared to our form since, but I still doubt we will finish 13th. 6 game form tables are pretty useless. Well Sherwood has been in charge for 10 games, and going by a 10 game form table, we're still 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) Imagine if we had played a full season like we've been playing since Sherwood came in.. We'd finish 10th or 11th. Which I'd take in a heartbeat! If we somehow managed to keep Sherwoods current record up for an entire season, we'd have 57 points. In the last 5 seasons that would have got us 7/8th for all but the 09/10 season, where it would have got 9th. Even this season, 57 guarantees at least 8th. If we managed to sustain our current form over next season, we'd almost definitely get 8th, although I doubt Sherwood will manage to keep this up over an entire season. I'd take 12th or above next season. No, we'd have 49 points. Good enough for... 10th (ish) I didn't just pluck that out of the air you know Edited May 7, 2015 by Stevo985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I think without Benteke's goals (whether he moves away or gets injured again) will show that our squad is still a little thin of regular goal scoring aplomb to achieve a top 8 finish right now. We have been in Top 6 form of late, but I think we still need a back up foil for Benteke whether he stays, goes or gets crocked.We won't be top 8 next season. And we haven't been top 6 form of late. Not even close (we're 13th in the form table) It will be interesting to see the table since Sherwood took charge at the end of the season. It will be skewed slightly by the first two defeats which were a bit of an outlier compared to our form since, but I still doubt we will finish 13th. 6 game form tables are pretty useless. Well Sherwood has been in charge for 10 games, and going by a 10 game form table, we're still 13th. I did put a caveat in there about our form being skewed by the first couple of losses. I also did say that I doubt we will be 13th by the end of the season. We may literally be 13th! 6 game form tables ARE useless Anyway, I've personally not even begun to think about next season. Let's stay up and win the cup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raver50032 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I think without Benteke's goals (whether he moves away or gets injured again) will show that our squad is still a little thin of regular goal scoring aplomb to achieve a top 8 finish right now. We have been in Top 6 form of late, but I think we still need a back up foil for Benteke whether he stays, goes or gets crocked. We won't be top 8 next season. And we haven't been top 6 form of late. Not even close (we're 13th in the form table) It will be interesting to see the table since Sherwood took charge at the end of the season. It will be skewed slightly by the first two defeats which were a bit of an outlier compared to our form since, but I still doubt we will finish 13th. 6 game form tables are pretty useless. They are useless indeed - and it's all could've, would've, should've etc. Spurs away, Liverpool at Wembley, Man City away (unlucky to lose and could have won) and Everton at home. I think they have all been Top 6 type performances. Not that I think we could have sustained anything like that over a whole season with these players - which I think is more Stevo's point and I admit I am surprised that we are only 13th in the form table. I guess the defeat at City counts for naff all and a win in a cup doesn't amount to much either - depends on how the stats are put together. For me, it's more how we played... No worry, I agree with Stevo about not being Top 8 next season... that would be such an epoch making leap for me... However, I think we should nail our colours to trying for 10th... and another serious tilt at a cup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 (edited) 6 game form tables are useless in determining our performance over a whole season. But I originally posted it because you claimed our "recent" form was Top 6. So if we're discussing our RECENT form, they are far from useless, as they specifically display our recent form. Edited May 7, 2015 by Stevo985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozvillafan Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 Form tables can be a little misleading as they work off results, not performances nor opposition faced. Sunderland, Liverpool, WBA and ourselves all have 7 points from our last 6. Can you spot the form team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 To me performances and form are two different things. Form is results. If Raver had said we'd been putting in top 6 performances then I'd have been ok with that (I'd disagree with the top 6 qualifier, but that's a different point) But we haven't been putting in top 6 form. The two are different in my opinion. If Raver meant the latter, then fair enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Define "recent" I guess. Or don't because to be honest I agree (I think?) that a combination of performances and results extrapolated over a full season of peaks and troughs would leave us somewhere between 8th and 12th. Which we would all be absolutely delighted with as well as entertained. 13 points over the last 8 as well as the 2 cup performances. That is my own focus for the above assertion. You can tell it's Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Ultimately, despite the hardships of the last 5 years, if we come out the other side at the end of the season, I think it'll all have been worthwhile. We're one of the few clubs that has gotten a proper hold of its finances and established a proper sustainability, and that'll pay off in spades down the line. I'm not entirely sure people will look back at everything in a decade and think it was a massive disaster, but rather see it as "that time we got a jump on all the other clubs who were running unsustainably" There aren't too many clubs in the league that won't have to go through a similar process to the one we've almost completed. Some will do it over a longer time period, others won't quite manage it in time, but us... we're done with it and we should, hopefully, be okay come the end of the season when it should all be wrapped up. Overall, the record under Randy's stewardship hasn't been all that bad: 06/07 - Finished 11th. Last team in PL to lose a game. Signed Ashley Young for club record fee. 07/08 - Finished 6th. Qualified for Intertoto. 08/09 - Finished 6th. Won Intertoto to get into Europe for the first time in 6 years. Signed James Milner for club record fee. 09/10 - Finished 6th. Played in Europe again, League Cup finalists, FA Cup semi-finalists. Signed Stewart Downing for joint club record fee. 10/11 - Finished 9th. Houllier hired. Played in Europe again, League Cup quarter-finalists. Signed Darren Bent for club record fee. 11/12 - Finished 16th. The major black mark, the season of McLeish. 12/13 - Finished 15th. Lambert hired. League Cup semi-finalists, kids won Next Gen. Signed Christian Benteke. Major cost-cutting starts to end massive annual losses. 13/14 - Finished 15th. Major cost-cutting continues. 14/15 - Finished TBC. FA Cup finalists. Hire Fox, sack Lambert, hire Sherwood. Major cost-cutting should be complete. Club self-sufficient. All in all, that's not disastrously bad when you take everything into consideration. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw transfer records broken. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw 6th place finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw top 10 finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw European football. And, we're self sufficient now. Now onto the next steps. That's a very one sided view of things. To bring some balance to the force you could mention the club records broken under Lambert. The 5 consecutive relegation worried seasons. The fact over half of his time here we've got less than 50 points season after season. You need to go back to the 60's to find a worse run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted May 7, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2015 Define "recent" I guess. Well it doesn't matter in this case. If you look at 6 games then we're 13th in the form table. If you look at Sherwood's entire league record with Villa, we're 13th. Either way we're well short of the top 6 that has been claimed. But yes I agree. Perform as we are right now and we'll be around 10th I reckon. But I still think people underestimate the difficulty of keeping performances at this level. However, we're massively off topic here, so I'll shut up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Ultimately, despite the hardships of the last 5 years, if we come out the other side at the end of the season, I think it'll all have been worthwhile. We're one of the few clubs that has gotten a proper hold of its finances and established a proper sustainability, and that'll pay off in spades down the line. I'm not entirely sure people will look back at everything in a decade and think it was a massive disaster, but rather see it as "that time we got a jump on all the other clubs who were running unsustainably" There aren't too many clubs in the league that won't have to go through a similar process to the one we've almost completed. Some will do it over a longer time period, others won't quite manage it in time, but us... we're done with it and we should, hopefully, be okay come the end of the season when it should all be wrapped up. Overall, the record under Randy's stewardship hasn't been all that bad: 06/07 - Finished 11th. Last team in PL to lose a game. Signed Ashley Young for club record fee. 07/08 - Finished 6th. Qualified for Intertoto. 08/09 - Finished 6th. Won Intertoto to get into Europe for the first time in 6 years. Signed James Milner for club record fee. 09/10 - Finished 6th. Played in Europe again, League Cup finalists, FA Cup semi-finalists. Signed Stewart Downing for joint club record fee. 10/11 - Finished 9th. Houllier hired. Played in Europe again, League Cup quarter-finalists. Signed Darren Bent for club record fee. 11/12 - Finished 16th. The major black mark, the season of McLeish. 12/13 - Finished 15th. Lambert hired. League Cup semi-finalists, kids won Next Gen. Signed Christian Benteke. Major cost-cutting starts to end massive annual losses. 13/14 - Finished 15th. Major cost-cutting continues. 14/15 - Finished TBC. FA Cup finalists. Hire Fox, sack Lambert, hire Sherwood. Major cost-cutting should be complete. Club self-sufficient. All in all, that's not disastrously bad when you take everything into consideration. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw transfer records broken. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw 6th place finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw top 10 finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw European football. And, we're self sufficient now. Now onto the next steps. That's a very one sided view of things. To bring some balance to the force you could mention the club records broken under Lambert. The 5 consecutive relegation worried seasons. The fact over half of his time here we've got less than 50 points season after season. You need to go back to the 60's to find a worse run. Yawn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raver50032 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 To me performances and form are two different things. Form is results. If Raver had said we'd been putting in top 6 performances then I'd have been ok with that (I'd disagree with the top 6 qualifier, but that's a different point) But we haven't been putting in top 6 form. The two are different in my opinion. If Raver meant the latter, then fair enough. Yes Stevo - it was more aimed at performances, rather than actual results. My bad, I got bogged down in semen, or semantics or whatever it's called... 3 points tomorrow, come on Villa, come the **** on!!! I would expect Randolph to be in attendance tomorrow too - him being here overseeing the ongoing takeover negotiations etc... I really hope he does the right thing this time, for his sake, and ours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 All in all, that's not disastrously bad when you take everything into consideration. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw transfer records broken. 1/3 of Lerner's seasons saw 6th place finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw top 10 finishes. Almost half of Lerner's seasons saw European football. And, we're self sufficient now. Now onto the next steps. It all depends what you're measuring it by, I suppose. In terms of the ambitions set out by Lerner when he first arrived, it's a bit of a disaster. Also, compared with any sensible business model of consistent and progressive investment in a club to build its strength and capacity to compete, it's not so great. And I guess it depends what sort of "self-sufficiency" we have achieved. If we are self-sufficient at a level that means we can maintain a club at around 13th-17th, I'm not so wild about it. Add to that three of the worst, most inconsistent managerial appointments I have seen for a long time at Villa and I beg to place a small reserve on your enthusiasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Not sure where you got enthusiasm from. I was merely laying out things as I see them - that Lerner's time at Villa was nowhere close to being as bad as some think. It was alright, all in all. IMO of course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante_Lockhart Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Not sure where you got enthusiasm from. I was merely laying out things as I see them - that Lerner's time at Villa was nowhere close to being as bad as some think. It was alright, all in all. IMO of course Mine too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Not sure where you got enthusiasm from. I was merely laying out things as I see them - that Lerner's time at Villa was nowhere close to being as bad as some think. It was alright, all in all. IMO of course It can be broken down and positives picked out. But overall the fact is the majority of his time here has seen us be shit. From what he took over from, for that to be the case, shows he's been terrible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 And I guess it depends what sort of "self-sufficiency" we have achieved. If we are self-sufficient at a level that means we can maintain a club at around 13th-17th, I'm not so wild about it. An excellent point, that doesn't really get mentioned when he's praised for finally getting finances back on track. We still dont know what sort of club we will be under him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 We still dont know what sort of club we will be under him. One that doesn't rack up 75m in debt just to have new owners, without any indication of where money for signings will come from given that that debt, and its interest, will need to be serviced with annual payments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 We still dont know what sort of club we will be under him. One that doesn't rack up 75m in debt just to have new owners, without any indication of where money for signings will come from given that that debt, and its interest, will need to be serviced with annual payments? Yes and for the record I dont want us to be taken over with the club being put in debt. But I'm hopeful that's not the only way we will see new owners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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