nick76 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, MakemineVanilla said: So he promised to end the separation of powers; wouldn't that bring about the one-party state? How did you get that he promised to end separation of powers? Basically he’s saying that the Supreme Court overturning Roe vs Wade has energised the women and democrat voters, that will get back the house, keep the Senate and WH, which will allow Roe vs Wade to be codified into law (I know they need some more votes). So the Supreme Court has interpreted current law to the dismay of women and democrat voters and thus energised them to vote so the current law can be changed so there is no chance the Supreme Court can intervene. That’s isn’t ending separation of powers, that is putting back to Congress to write the law in line with Roe vs Wade, which the Supreme Court is to interpret in any future cases put in front of them. That’s how it is supposed to work. Edited March 9 by nick76 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 So he posted a $90m bond on the second time he defamed her and last night it looks like he is repeating the same thing so I’m guessing a 3rd defamation case will be happening…wonder how much this one will cost him… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 hours ago, nick76 said: So he posted a $90m bond on the second time he defamed her and last night it looks like he is repeating the same thing so I’m guessing a 3rd defamation case will be happening…wonder how much this one will cost him… He’s definitely testing the system, hopefully they do him again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 10 Moderator Share Posted March 10 2 hours ago, Genie said: He’s definitely testing the system, hopefully they do him again. He’s not even testing it at this point, he's just throwing other peoples money down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bickster Posted March 10 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted March 10 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 11 Moderator Share Posted March 11 Trump would have prevented the American Civil War and Abraham Lincoln would have been a no-one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 10 minutes ago, bickster said: Trump would have prevented the American Civil War and Abraham Lincoln would have been a no-one He would have prevented it by extending slave owning to the northern states. Job sorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rds1983 Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 3 hours ago, mjmooney said: He would have prevented it by extending slave owning to the northern states. Job sorted. Nope. Trump loves African American's. As evidenced by all the (AI generated) pictures his followers have been releasing of him hanging out with them. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-03-08/fake-images-made-to-show-trump-with-black-supporters-highlight-concerns-around-ai-and-elections Quote WASHINGTON — At first glance, images circulating online showing former President Trump surrounded by groups of Black people smiling and laughing seem to be ordinary campaign photos, but a look closer is telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 (edited) Realclearpolitics is a generally right leaning website but doesn't particularly discriminate with their polling data. A comparison of the 2020 data to the current 2024 polling shows the landscape. Someone had a take on this thread that was along the lines that there would be a lot of dramatics but at the end of the day, people would go back to voting for Biden once the ballots were actually in and the prospect of voting for Trump again was real. I hope that's the case because it's going to be a close one. Edited March 11 by DJBOB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Tin foil theory. Polling for 2020 overestimated Biden's final popular vote margin by 2.7 points Polling for 2016 overestimated Clinton's final popular vote margin by about 1.5 points. I think the common theory was that the sampling overestimated Democrats but my tin foil theory was that the responding rate is usually over represented by people that want to respond to polls. In 2016 and 2020, it was Democrats, but my tin foil theory is that 2024 polling respondents are overrepresented by a slight margin by Republicans considering the enthusiasm is stronger for the out of power party. Going to be a razor thin margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 A long thread on the previously mentioned shift in minority voting trends in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 2 hours ago, DJBOB said: my tin foil theory was that the responding rate is usually over represented by people that want to respond to polls. That's called self selection bias and there's nothing remotely tin foil hatty about it being a real and observable phenomena. 3 hours ago, DJBOB said: doesn't particularly discriminate with their polling data. Not sure what this means tbh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 8 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: That's called self selection bias and there's nothing remotely tin foil hatty about it being a real and observable phenomena. Not sure what this means tbh? They just aggregate polling from the 'higher quality' firms and don't weight them at all. A lot of the other polling websites (see 538) apply an additional formula abstraction to come up with their estimate. RCP just uses xyz polling data (excluding a lot of online polling) and gives the average. A margin of error of +/- 3 points is kind of a lot but it's a more straightforward representation than other sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 2 hours ago, DJBOB said: A long thread on the previously mentioned shift in minority voting trends in the US The thing this particular trending polling subject rarely accounts for is how racialised and ethnic definitions in the world are always changing, too, particularly around migrant waves. What is Hispanic? What is Black? Racism is always being redefined -- and so is whiteness! Italians migrants to America were treated very badly when they came in the early 20th century, and racialised stereotyping was rampant. In Argentina, Italians were welcomed more readily and got more involved in politics faster. Quote Both Argentina and the United States revealed anti-Italian prejudices. However, ethnic discrimination was stronger in the latter locale than in the former (Scarzanella E., 1999; Connell W. J. and Gardaphe F., 2010). When the bulk of Italian newcomers reached the United States in the late 19th century, an Anglo-Saxon and Protestant establishment was already entrenched. Instead, Italians landed in Catholic Argentina while this society was still in the making and were able to play a leading role in the process of nation building. They not only partook in the domestic struggles of the second half of the 19thcentury. They also brought capital and skills that contributed to Argentina’s economic development in both agriculture and industry (Scarzanella E., 1983). Accordingly, Italians secured a fairly smooth acceptance by the host society (Audenino P. and Tirabassi M., 2008 : 63). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 I am so worried about the election. Could be curtains for democracy if Trump wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Quote Joe Biden Suddenly Leads Donald Trump in Multiple Polls https://www.newsweek.com/presidential-election-latest-polls-biden-trump-1877928 Polling is simply all over the place, Biden will get a bump now after the SOTU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 11 Moderator Share Posted March 11 I also read over the weekend that Tump is very short on donors right now and the Biden campaign is relatively flush. Traditional GOP big donors that supported him previously are shying away in big numbers partly because he’s Trump (and his baggage) and partly because they know he’ll be throwing it at lawyers to defend himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 (edited) Orban says what we all know. Trump will hand Ukraine to Putin to do as he wishes with if he is elected. The axis of evil = Russia, Trump, China, Orban and North Korea Edited March 11 by Captain_Townsend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 8 hours ago, Captain_Townsend said: Orban says what we all know. Trump will hand Ukraine to Putin to do as he wishes with if he is elected. The axis of evil = Russia, Trump, China, Orban and North Korea Well, it's good that NATO consists of other more willing countries than the US. France and Germany have the ability to outproduce Russia. The US withdrawing aid would be an issue, sure. But Trump wouldn't be able to 'hand over' Ukraine while every other NATO nation supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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