Bollitics: VT General Election Poll #6 - Leaders Debate 3

[Awol]

What would the Tories have done different?

I suspect they would not have wasted billions of pounds and borrowed more even when times were good or created 100,000's of public sector none jobs. Oh, and they would have run a policy of unrestricted immigration to try and change the cultural make up of our country for no reason other than ideology.

It's the same old Labour, ending in economic disaster everytime they are in Government.

Socialism, it's great until they run out of everyone elses money.

What rubbish, they had created a fairer society

Rich-poor divide 'wider than 40 years ago' Yep, that's really fair isn't it?

which allows people to prosper from deprived backgrounds such as me; it has give me the opportunity and others around me a chance to go to University and have a better standard of life.

If I 'd gone to uni with my school year group under the Tories I'd have had a grant. I went later under Labour and it cost me an arm and leg in loans which I'm still paying back. Labour's manifesto said they wouldn't introduce tuition fees..

He has stabilised the banks and given us a good footing to build on, a fairer footing for everyone not just for the wealthy.

You actually believe what has happened is fair? The banks f'ed up, the costs of that were transferred to sovereign debt and it's little minions like us that will be paying it back in taxes - if indeed it's even possible to pay it back at all without inflating our way out of it and reducing those with savings to destitution.

It's not a economic disaster, so be real please.

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts on that come the summer.

Immigration is not a major issue for me, I live in a segregated area (Oldham) I have no problems with different races or cultures, I embrace different cultures. It really isn't a problem for me, only for those with ill-informed minds and hate provokers. Why is it an big issue for you?

Anyone who objects to mass immigration is a hate provoker with an ill-informed mind?

Oh dear, I believe the pollsters have it down as the second most raised concern with the electorate after the economy. You must hate living in such a bigotted, hate filled country...or maybe your comment was more than a little silly.

[mjmooney]

Just been listening to Gordo speaking here at the University.

Very impressive actually, but I fear too little, too late.

[mjmooney]

Socialism, it's great until they run out of everyone elses money.

Well it would be great if anybody tried it. This country hasn't been anywhere near it since 1950.

[Jon]

excellent stuff from the beeb on what happens in the event of a hung parliament:

Hung parliament: What happens next?

If on Friday morning no party has been able to secure an outright majority in the House of Commons, there will be a frantic period of negotiation to decide the shape of the next government.

The situation is described as a hung parliament, with no single party having enough MPs - 326 - to win parliamentary votes without the support of members of other parties.

Which party is in a position to form the next government will become clear in the following hours or days. Read on for an explanation of the options or see our election outcomes decision tree.

WHICH PARTY CAN TRY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT?

Even if the Conservatives gain the most seats, the largest party does not automatically have the right to try to form an administration.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ELECTION?

See election outcomes tree in full

As the incumbent prime minister, that right is Gordon Brown's. Indeed, it is his duty to stay in office until it becomes clear which party or combination of parties can command the most support in the new parliament.

"We must always have a government, and until a new government can be formed the present government carries on," explains Professor Robert Hazell, from the Institute for Government.

A similar situation arose in 1974, when Conservative Edward Heath stayed in power for four days after the election trying to put together a coalition even though Labour had more seats.

If Mr Brown decides to press ahead, he can then approach some of the smaller parties to ask for support.

IF GORDON BROWN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER

Two routes are likely to be explored as the prime minister bids to form a new government. Firstly, he can consider forging an alliance with another party or parties to create a coalition.

Without a coalition, parties can try to govern on issue-by-issue basis

As an alternative, Labour might seek informal agreements with other parties, trying to form majorities in favour of each individual bill as they come up. This may include gaining the agreement of another party not to defeat the government in a no-confidence vote.

If coalition is Mr Brown's aim, with Labour likely to need a relatively large number of MPs to vote with them, his first port of call is likely to be the Liberal Democrats.

However, it is unlikely that Mr Brown is the only leader negotiating with the Lib Dems, with David Cameron also exploring the option of gaining their backing to form a Conservative-led government.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

Professor Hazell says the Liberal Democrats will in effect set the terms of negotiation in these first few days.

"They will decide with whom they want to negotiate first," he says, adding that they may speak to both simultaneously.

He says they may be able to broadly call the shots on whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.

Gordon Brown might have to reach across the party divide for support

During the election campaign, leader Nick Clegg has repeatedly said the party with the "biggest mandate" should get the right to govern.

He did not say how he would define that - whether in terms of the largest number of seats or share of the vote.

However, some commentators have interpreted his past comments as suggesting he would not "prop-up" a government led by Mr Brown, while his predecessor Lord Ashdown has suggested his party is "too far apart" from the Conservatives.

Mr Clegg has only said that he will push for a "fairer" Britain in terms of taxes, the political system, schooling and banking reform.

Dr Tim Bale, lecturer in politics at Sussex University, believes an alliance between the parties describing themselves as "progressive" - Labour and the Lib Dems - is possible.

Potentially, he says, they could argue that together they have secured nearly 60% of the vote - if the opinion polls prove to be correct.

"The way they could spin it is that the public actually voted Gordon Brown out and didn't necessarily vote a Lib-Lab coalition out.

"If the Lib Dems play it cleverly, they can actually present this as the majority solution for Britain and a much more stable solution than a Conservative minority government," he adds.

IF GORDON BROWN RESIGNS

If the Conservatives fail to win a majority but have a clear lead in terms of the number of seats and share of the vote, it is possible that Gordon Brown could concede defeat and resign as prime minister.

The country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election - the parties will be mindful of that and a deal will be struck

Dr Ruth Fox

Hansard Society

Life under a hung Parliament

The tricky business of coalitions

Hung parliaments of the past

In such circumstances, the Queen would be likely to invite David Cameron - as current Leader of the Opposition - to try to form a government.

Whether he seeks to create a coalition is likely to depend on how far short of a majority his party finds itself.

If the gap is only a few seats, he may prefer to try to continue with a minority government and seek informal arrangements to get each bill passed.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

If the Conservatives have fallen just a few seats short of a majority, Mr Cameron's first port of call might be the unionist parties in Northern Ireland.

The Conservatives have already formed an electoral alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party, although it remains unclear how far the Democratic Unionists would go to back the Tories.

Dr Tim Bale, politics lecturer at Sussex University, says the DUP's core support is made up of working class voters who would be "badly hit" if the Conservatives withdrew a lot of public spending from the province.

During campaigning, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists have ruled out joining a formal coalition. Instead, they see voting on an issue-by-issue basis as their best opportunity to get the best deal for their constituents.

David Cameron may have to get Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg on side

Again, Mr Bale believes this could present Mr Cameron with difficulties because they are "some way to the left" of the Conservatives.

So, Mr Cameron might find himself dealing with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats. This would be particularly likely should the Tories require a large number of outside votes to pass bills.

Again, if this were the case, Mr Clegg's party might be in a strong position to say whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.

Electoral reform - a long-standing Lib Dem demand - could still prove a sticking point. The Conservatives are opposed to the idea but might have to concede some ground to strike a deal.

The BBC's deputy political editor James Landale says the Tories might agree, for example, to a referendum on reforming the system while reserving the right to campaign against it.

However, Mr Bale says even if the Conservatives do manage to form a government, "its durability and stability has to be called into question".

"It's not going to have a very big cushion of votes to see it through some very difficult times, [involving] pending cuts obviously but also some of the legislation it wants to put through is going to be quite controversial," he said.

BY WHEN MUST THE GOVERNMENT BE FORMED?

There is no formal deadline for when an administration must be formed but a key date is 25 May, when the Queen's Speech is due to set out the government's priorities during the parliament.

However, Dr Ruth Fox, director of the Hansard Society's parliament and government programme, believes it will be clear within days whether there will be a possibility of a deal between the parties.

"That will determine the direction of government," she says. But the finer details of policy might be worked out later.

Professor Hazell says that while the public is used to elections being over in a day or so, negotiations to form a government in a hung parliament could take between a week and 10 days.

KEY ROLE OF CIVIL SERVANTS

Over the first few days, or weeks, of negotiations the role of the civil servants is likely to be crucial in smoothing talks between the parties.

Civil servants would help smooth negotiations between parties

They would not be allowed to provide policy advice but would be able to show where policy overlaps.

Professor Hazell says the civil servants are "very well prepared" to support negotiations between the parties in the event of a hung parliament.

Earlier this year, the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell drew up a document on how civil servants would help with these discussions.

In reality, civil servants have long played a part in such discussions, according to Ms Fox. But there is more agreement now on how civil servants could be seconded to parties who are not governing to give details on such matters as economic issues.

QUEEN'S SPEECH 25 MAY

A minority administration must show it has the confidence of the Commons but the Queen's Speech does not have to be the deadline for negotiations between parties.

The administration may put forward a slimmed down legislative programme which it believes is more likely to gain support.

But if it loses the vote on the Queen's Speech this would be seen as a "no-confidence" vote and force its resignation.

EARLY SECOND ELECTION?

If no agreement can be reached between parties and no government was unable to command enough support to get the Queen's Speech through parliament there would be a need for a second election.

However, party leaders may not be keen to go to the polls again unless the opinion polls indicate voter intentions have changed markedly. Parties would also consider the fact that another election would be costly financially.

Ms Fox adds that "the country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election" and says the parties, mindful of that, will be likely to strike a deal.

Link

and a nice shiny flow chart!

Fascinating stuff. So many possibilities ....

[PauloBarnesi]

He has stabilised the banks and given us a good footing to build on, a fairer footing for everyone not just for the wealthy. It's not a economic disaster, so be real please.

Brown is claiming credit for solving a mess that he was in part responsible for. No competent politician wouldn’t do that. A good one, wouldn’t have made half the mistakes he did.

As for it not being an economic disaster, it was and still is. Lets pray someone knows how to get out of this mess.

[Demitri_C]

i think labour will just edge it personally

[drat01]

I guess the question is where the cuts (and tax increases) are going to come.

Well if you use Tory councils as a benchmark its fairly obvious to see what their priorities are

[PauloBarnesi]

I guess the question is where the cuts (and tax increases) are going to come.

Well if you use Tory councils as a benchmark its fairly obvious to see what their priorities are

But none of them have declared anything like the cuts that are needed. No one is being honest with the public. Cameron goes “we can’t go on like this”. Well he’s right, now if only any of them would tell us what they are going to do.

It doesn’t matter which party you are; the simple facts are we spend more than we earn. And we are doing it at an unsustainable rate. Tough decisions are needed. One has to make judgements; what is most important for this country. Now personally I think its education, because thats the future, and for far too long we have skimped on it, and now people are deserting the state system at an ever increasing rate. But if I want good education, what about the health service? or defence? or infastructure? etc, etc.

I guess you then might say that we need a strong economy to generate the tax necessary to try and maintain some of the above. Who has the best ideas/implementation plans. I think in the end it will be the economy that becomes the key issue in voting, and I think people are still confused as to who is best.

[Richard]

It's not a economic disaster, so be real please.

Really? Do you know how much Debt we have?

only for those with ill-informed minds

[tonyh29]

Isn't one of the seats being contested 2 weeks later due to the UKIP candidate dropping dead

Be interesting if say the Tories have 325 and that 1 seat would give them a majority ..would either the labour or Lib dem candidate drop out to stop the Tories winning (as happened in bath one year)

though from that flow chart it would appear if a party is close to 326 they will go for it anyway

[avfc89]

@Awol - Mass immigration has been a problem for people, but it's being addressed by Labour they're introducing a point based system, what more do you want? Why is it a big problem for you?

I can only judge my own life, I would say I have a better chance of prospering today than under a Tory Government. The banks did mess up, but what should we have done? You've got to be reasonable, we all pay taxes and therefore we should have good investment in the Public Services.

I am prepared to pay into Society if it gives everyone a fair chance, it's called compassion and I'm happy to pay back the system which I have profited from.

We will see what happens in the future, it could very well be a Tory Government in charge, lets see how things turn out for all of us.

[Jon]

But none of them have declared anything like the cuts that are needed. No one is being honest with the public.

true.

None of them have revealed the depth of cuts and tax hikes that will have to happen over the next parliament.

Effectively meaning that whoeevr gets in would likely deliver well under 50% of what is promised in their manifestos anyway. Maybe 20%, something like that.

[Jon]

though from that flow chart it would appear if a party is close to 326 they will go for it anyway

essentially, yes.

[snowychap]

In practice, I think we'd be in murky waters indeed, if Labour have more votes and seats than the libs, and GB wants to stay on.

I think short term, Brown would be staying on as PM, in the event of a lib/lab coalition, in those circumstances.

I don't think so.

I may be wrong but I don't think Clegg would take his party in to a coalition with Gordo as PM unless his children were being held hostage.

I just get the idea that there is a huge level of animosity between the two (that goes both ways and I'm not coming down on the side of either).

[Richard]

@Awol - Mass immigration has been a problem for people, but it's being addressed by Labour

Where not one year in the last 13 has seen net immigration below 150,000 per year and not one year in the previous Conservative govt was it above 70,000 per year

I can only judge my own life, I would say I have a better chance of prospering today than under a Tory Government.

Based on what ?

The banks did mess up, but what should we have done? You've got to be reasonable, we all pay taxes and therefore we should have good investment in the Public Services.

At the expense of what? Check out that debt website and see how much we are repaying in interest and how that equates to , say, the education or health budget

[Jon]

In practice, I think we'd be in murky waters indeed, if Labour have more votes and seats than the libs, and GB wants to stay on.

I think short term, Brown would be staying on as PM, in the event of a lib/lab coalition, in those circumstances.

I don't think so.

I may be wrong but I don't think Clegg would take his party in to a coalition with Gordo as PM unless his children were being held hostage.

I just get the idea that there is a huge level of animosity between the two (that goes both ways and I'm not coming down on the side of either).

so, what do you thing would hapopen in that event, with that seat distribution Snowy?

A Labour "coup" to oust Brown and form a coalition govt with the libs?

[PauloBarnesi]

@Awol - Mass immigration has been a problem for people, but it's being addressed by Labour they're introducing a point based system, what more do you want? Why is it a big problem for you?

Its a big problem for the Labour MP, Margaret Hodge in Barking fighting the BNP. She’s spoken up about the immigration issue and not everyone in the Labour party have been too happy.

[tonyh29]

so, what do you thing would hapopen in that event, with that seat distribution Snowy?

A Labour "coup" to oust Brown and form a coalition govt with the libs?

from another thread ,personally i can still see this happening

i still expect Lab and Libs to merge into one party at some point so Clegg could well become leader of the Whippet Breeders Fence Sitting abstain party

remember it was Brown and Prescott who prevented it happening around 10 years ago ..and come Friday they will both be out the way

[snowychap]

so, what do you thing would hapopen in that event, with that seat distribution Snowy?

A Labour "coup" to oust Brown and form a coalition govt with the libs?

I think it's rather unlikely but it's more of a possibility than most people would think, I feel.

I'm not sure that a 'coup' would be the best way to describe it because if Gordo doesn't want to go as party leader then I can't see him going and I can't really see the PLP going ahead in a coalition government with a Labour PM other than their own party leader - if you get where I'm going.

I do see it as a possibility that Gordo might 'step aside' if it's going to be a certain way to deny the Tories the possibility of a minority government.

I'd like to be a fly on the wall at those discussions if they were to take place, though. That would be one of the most interesting 'deals' ever.

[PauloBarnesi]

Glad to see the Beaver are the fourth most popular party. I am expecting the leader of the Conservatives (Tony) and Labour (Ian) to be contacting me soon.