General Election Pre-Thread (1 of 6)

[limpid]

A new one each week to keep the poll relevant.

The party specific stuff can go on the party specific threads (but there will be some overlap). This is more for general stuff about the election, like the horrifying backstories of candidates.

 

 

I suspect I'll have to tweak this as I've done it off the top of my head.

[Tegis]

Ellis Out!!!

[choffer]

23 minutes ago, limpid said:

The party specific stiff

Or Jacob, as he’s more commonly known. 

[mjmooney]

We're soon going to find out what juicy stuff the press have been keeping up their sleeves for this moment. Let dirty tactics commence... 

[bickster]

[Jareth]

57 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

We're soon going to find out what juicy stuff the press have been keeping up their sleeves for this moment. Let dirty tactics commence... 

Starmer shagged Stormy Daniels I heard

[Wainy316]

Pffft, this poll does not allow me to predict a Tory win 

[Leeroy]

The Economist’s latest poll tracker has Labour with 381 seats and the Conservatives with 192. But then Electoral Calculus has Labour with 472 seats and the Conservatives with only 85 which is astounding. I don’t think it will be that bad considering the doubts around Starmer and inflation coming down to 2.3%, the Toroes also tend to do better than Labour during campaigns because they have much of the press behind them.

 

Let’s see how it plays out.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Leeroy said:

The Economist’s latest poll tracker has Labour with 381 seats and the Conservatives with 192. But then Electoral Calculus has Labour with 472 seats and the Conservatives with only 85 which is astounding. I don’t think it will be that bad considering the doubts around Starmer and inflation coming down to 2.3%, the Toroes also tend to do better than Labour during campaigns because they have much of the press behind them.

 

Let’s see how it plays out.

It won't play out anything like the Economist prediction. That is a classic case of presenting the data and coming to a wildly incorrect conclusion to suit their narrative.

The Poll tracker has the Tories on 21% (which is a historical low and 30% lower than their worst ever General Election result), yet their analysis has them getting 192 seats. With over a 30% share of the vote is their disastrous 1997 election they only managed 165 MPs. FPTP can produce some wildly unrepresentative party cohorts but seriously not that wild.

The Economists analysis isn't worth a carrot   

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Countdown to GE day - no idea how many days and counting. 

I will work the forthcoming GE for my hometown Council.  Its pleasant work and a decent pay packet for a long but pleasant day. 

At this year's council elections (May) we were told that if a snap GE took place we would be assigned to the same role at the same location. So I expect to taking up my usual role based at the local Tennis Club.  But I am experienced in most of the electrol roles and sometimes get diverted somewhere else on election day if gaps appear. 

I now have to decide whether I want to take part in the "count".   The counts are amazing.  They usually take place in our historic Guildhall, although I think this one could be moved to a leisure centre.  You get to meet all the candidates and various VIP who might accompany them.  The atmosphere is buzzing and you get early indications on the result from the second you crack open the first ballot box. 

The night finishes with the result being announced and the winners and losers speeches. Its always fun to see the overly confident candidate lose his seat, the novelty comedy candidate mixing with very serious people and the defeated candidate slamming a senior figure in his party.  Its all very entertaining. 

So......what's next? 

I'll get an email in the next few days asking me if I want to work on 4th July.  

The Electoral Commission will be proof reading and finalising the handbook of rules and regulations which we will all work to.  I'll get that in a couple of weeks time. 

I'll be sent some e-learning for various election roles based upon what's in the handbook.  

I'll be given a formal role with a location and the contact details of 5 or 6 other people who will be at the same location.  A few of us will view the location with the caretaker and sketch out where we want ballot boxes, tables, boothes etc. 

I will attend a Q&A where inexperienced colleagues can ask experienced colleagues to clarify anything where they don't have 100% clarity.  

We are then ready for the GE day.  Its a very early start. I pick up the empty ballot box,  ballot papers and electoral role from the council HQ and set off for the polling station. 

I am really looking forward to this GE.  Everyone who can vote should vote.  Our ancestors died to give us this right.  But anyone who has spare time on their hands and enjoys politics should help run the elections.  Its fun, interesting and rewarding. 

 

 

[CarryOnVilla]

What are SNP’s likelihood of retaining their seats after all their recent bullshitery?

If they lose seats is it more likely labour pick them up? 

[Leeroy]

24 minutes ago, bickster said:

It won't play out anything like the Economist prediction. That is a classic case of presenting the data and coming to a wildly incorrect conclusion to suit their narrative.

The Poll tracker has the Tories on 21% (which is a historical low and 30% lower than their worst ever General Election result), yet their analysis has them getting 192 seats. With over a 30% share of the vote is their disastrous 1997 election they only managed 165 MPs. FPTP can produce some wildly unrepresentative party cohorts but seriously not that wild.

The Economists analysis isn't worth a carrot   

And the polls are never wrong are they. The Economist isn’t particularly fond of this government, this isn’t the Telegraph or the Mail or even the Times. I think they’ll get very well beaten but to end up fewer than 100 seats I think is nonsensical, I may be wrong.

 

Truth is we won’t really know how bad their defeat will be until the Exit Polls come out on the night of 4th July. Any polls before then are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. As is the Economist’s modelled prediction but it’s still worth considering an alternative view.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

And the polls are never wrong are they

Not by the margin of the Economists prediction. They are never that wrong. 

[ml1dch]

41 minutes ago, CarryOnVilla said:

What are SNP’s likelihood of retaining their seats after all their recent bullshitery?

If they lose seats is it more likely labour pick them up? 

Yes, but it's also thought to be the only place in the UK where the Tories might gain seats as well. But if they do that suggests a complete SNP collapse, which is obviously Bad News for the Tories in terms of overall seats. The most recent YouGov poll, stuck into Electoral Calculus gave Labour 41 seats, SNP 8, Lib Dem 5, Tories 3.

My guess as things stand is something like Labour up twenty, SNP down twenty, everyone else up or down one or two. 

[CarryOnVilla]

2 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Yes, but it's also thought to be the only place in the UK where the Tories might gain seats as well. But if they do that suggests a complete SNP collapse, which is obviously Bad News for the Tories in terms of overall seats. The most recent YouGov poll, stuck into Electoral Calculus gave Labour 41 seats, SNP 8, Lib Dem 5, Tories 3.

My guess as things stand is something like Labour up twenty, SNP down twenty, everyone else up or down one or two. 

Madness! I had no idea that SNP’s collapse was that bad. I was think like a few seats max, not an entire decimation 

[ml1dch]

7 minutes ago, CarryOnVilla said:

Madness! I had no idea that SNP’s collapse was that bad. I was think like a few seats max, not an entire decimation 

It's the febrility of their spread of votes that does it - with a few exceptions, most of their seats have pretty small majorities with the vote broadly splitting along pro / anti independence lines. Which as we know, is narrowly in favour of anti at the moment. The thing that then pushes the SNP over the edge is that if they are seen as the most viable anti-Tory vote (as has been the case since 2015), that's enough for SNP to take the seat from Labour. If that switches, and Labour are seen as the more likely option to keep the Tory out, the seat flips. 

They win big and lose big. 

[bickster]

19 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Yes, but it's also thought to be the only place in the UK where the Tories might gain seats as well. But if they do that suggests a complete SNP collapse, which is obviously Bad News for the Tories in terms of overall seats. The most recent YouGov poll, stuck into Electoral Calculus gave Labour 41 seats, SNP 8, Lib Dem 5, Tories 3.

My guess as things stand is something like Labour up twenty, SNP down twenty, everyone else up or down one or two. 

Electoral Calculus currently has the SNP to lose 36 seats out of 48

[CarryOnVilla]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

It's the febrility of their spread of votes that does it - with a few exceptions, most of their seats have pretty small majorities with the vote broadly splitting along pro / anti independence lines. Which as we know, is narrowly in favour of anti at the moment. The thing that then pushes the SNP over the edge is that if they are seen as the most viable anti-Tory vote (as has been the case since 2015), that's enough for SNP to take the seat from Labour. If that switches, and Labour are seen as the more likely option to keep the Tory out, the seat flips. 

They win big and lose big. 

Ahh good assessment, didn’t think of terms of how close thr swing was of each seat. 

so it does seem like Westminster is going to have lot of gains in Scotland again. 
 

sad for the independence, but good for the Union 

Edited May 23 by CarryOnVilla

[mjmooney]

Remember "Did you stay up for Portillo?"? 

We're going to be spoilt for choice this time. 

[markavfc40]

3 hours ago, Leeroy said:

Toroes also tend to do better than Labour during campaigns because they have much of the press behind them.

Will the Tories have all the usual rags behind them DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph etc or will one or two of them not want to be seen to back nailed on losers. If it was close they may believe they still have enough influence to swing it, but it isn't.