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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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1 hour ago, Chicken Field said:

Disagree, if they win their game in hand, they'll be "only" 8 points behind us with 8 games to go. With us being in questionable form and having a brutal fixture list and United historically having the ability to go on runs, even when they are at their worst, I think we'd be naive to call them irrelevant just yet - Although it should be unlikely that they catch us and this season would be a complete bottlejob if they do.  2-3 more wins this season and then I'll start calling Utd irrelevant

I'm just looking at it round by round. Last weekend we had the most difficult game, Spurs the easiest, Man Utd middle. We gained points on Man Utd.

This round we, again, have the most difficult, Spurs second and Man Utd easiest. Man Utd have to take opportunities like this if they are to make up the ground.

Basically, they have to win tonight

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3 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

If Arsenal and West Ham go out we are in the shit

Also City which is 50/50

Just got to finish 4th ennit

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7 minutes ago, picicata said:

I'm just looking at it round by round. Last weekend we had the most difficult game, Spurs the easiest, Man Utd middle. We gained points on Man Utd.

This round we, again, have the most difficult, Spurs second and Man Utd easiest. Man Utd have to take opportunities like this if they are to make up the ground.

Basically, they have to win tonight

They’ll do well to do that, they’re playing tomorrow 

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9 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

If Arsenal and West Ham go out we are in the shit

Also City which is 50/50

Man. City is 60/40 I'd say. They were comfortable against Real Madrid over two legs last season and Real Madrid got injuries at the back.

Basically Man. City and Arsenal going through guarantees 5th I'd assume as then we'll have an all English SF. 

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5 hours ago, Leeroy said:

I get what you are saying and it won't be an issue if we finish 4th, but it just confuses me when teams with not as good players as ours have no trouble playing these teams where we struggle. Football is a funny game for sure.

Spurs lost to Wolves where we beat them. People were moaning endlessly when we only drew 0-0 at Everton, Spurs only got a 2-2 there. That Fulham away win is looking like one of the results of the season now as we played them off the back of the Man. United game where 99% on here were negative as to the run in (including me) but we won there and straight after they've turned over Man. United and Spurs which has greatly helped up.

Need to club together to get Marco Silva a decent plonk of Red as a gesture of thanks.

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1 hour ago, Chicken Field said:

Disagree, if they win their game in hand, they'll be "only" 8 points behind us with 8 games to go. With us being in questionable form and having a brutal fixture list and United historically having the ability to go on runs, even when they are at their worst, I think we'd be naive to call them irrelevant just yet - Although it should be unlikely that they catch us and this season would be a complete bottlejob if they do.  2-3 more wins this season and then I'll start calling Utd irrelevant

You'd think we'd only won one of our last 6 instead of 4 wins 1 draw 1 loss if we are in questionable form. I wouldn't call our fixture list brutal - Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are all winnable home games. Palace and Brighton are winnable away games. None of our tough games are back to back either so if we do lose there's always the chance for a reaction. 

I'm confident we will get the wins required for top 5 ourselves (and top 4) but I think Man Utd will make themselves irrelevant on their own anyway. Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H) and Bournemouth (A) - they need 7 points from those games really to even give themselves a chance and I don't see them winning any of them. They barely have any defenders fit!  

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33 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

If Arsenal and West Ham go out we are in the shit

Also City which is 50/50

I think Arsenal will destroy Bayern tbh

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1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

I'd be surprised if we needed any more than 6 points from here to get 5th

The more Spurs don't win away then 70 points could be enough for 4th aswell. It's only 3 wins and two draws away which we should achieve comfortably with what is left in the run in. I'm expecting 4 wins and 1 draw from what is left, maybe another draw if Liverpool just need a point to win the league when we play them.

This is ideal run in from our POV for Spurs now:

Forest home- win- 60 points

Newcastle away- draw- 61 points

Chelsea away- draw- 62 points

Arsenal home- Loss- 62 points

Liverpool away- loss- 62 points

Burnley home- win- 65 points

Man. City home- draw- 66

Sheffield United- away- 69 points

That's the formula that would be good enough for 70 points (and 69 may enough be enough if they get a big defeat to Liverpool or Arsenal). In reality I've been them 3 points off Newcastle, Man. City and Chelsea and them beating all three relegation threatened teams aswell so not like I've been that harsh with their results.

I have a feeling they will beat Newcastle away with all their injuries at the back so that might complicate things. Bruno Guimaraes also is suspended v them if he gets booked at the weekend.

Edited by VillaChris
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3 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

The more Spurs don't win away then 70 points could be enough for 4th aswell. It's only 3 wins and two draws away which we should achieve comfortably with what is left in the run in. I'm expecting 4 wins and 1 draw from what is left, maybe another draw if Liverpool just need a point to win the league when we play them.

Historically 70 points is usually enough. I think there's only one occasion in the last 10 seasons where 70 points wouldn't have got you 4th

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12 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

The more Spurs don't win away then 70 points could be enough for 4th aswell. It's only 3 wins and two draws away which we should achieve comfortably with what is left in the run in. I'm expecting 4 wins and 1 draw from what is left, maybe another draw if Liverpool just need a point to win the league when we play them.

This is ideal run in from our POV for Spurs now:

Forest home- win- 60 points

Newcastle away- draw- 61 points

Chelsea away- draw- 62 points

Arsenal home- Loss- 62 points

Liverpool away- loss- 62 points

Burnley home- win- 65 points

Man. City home- draw- 66

Sheffield United- away- 69 points

That's the formula that would be good enough for 70 points (and 69 may enough be enough if they get a big defeat to Liverpool or Arsenal). In reality I've been them 3 points off Newcastle, Man. City and Chelsea and them beating all three relegation threatened teams aswell so not like I've been that harsh with their results.

I have a feeling they will beat Newcastle away with all their injuries at the back so that might complicate things. Bruno Guimaraes also is suspended v them if he gets booked at the weekend.

I have them pretty much the same as that but beating Newcastle away. 

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9 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Historically 70 points is usually enough. I think there's only one occasion in the last 10 seasons where 70 points wouldn't have got you 4th

IIRC that was Arsenal under Unai..

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2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

THANK YOU!

It's driving me crazy that people are still mentioning them. They're irrelevant

If they don't win at Chelsea then I'll rest easy

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6 minutes ago, villan95 said:

IIRC that was Arsenal under Unai..

It was, 70 points but finished 1 point behind Spurs in 4th on 71

 

but I double checked and 2 seasons earlier Arsenal missed out again despite getting 75 points. Liverpool were 4th on 76.

So Arsenal have been quite unlucky :D 

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10 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It was, 70 points but finished 1 point behind Spurs in 4th on 71

 

but I double checked and 2 seasons earlier Arsenal missed out again despite getting 75 points. Liverpool were 4th on 76.

So Arsenal have been quite unlucky :D 

75 points and no CL is madness!

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50 minutes ago, RichW said:

You'd think we'd only won one of our last 6 instead of 4 wins 1 draw 1 loss if we are in questionable form. I wouldn't call our fixture list brutal - Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are all winnable home games. Palace and Brighton are winnable away games. None of our tough games are back to back either so if we do lose there's always the chance for a reaction. 

I'm confident we will get the wins required for top 5 ourselves (and top 4) but I think Man Utd will make themselves irrelevant on their own anyway. Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H) and Bournemouth (A) - they need 7 points from those games really to even give themselves a chance and I don't see them winning any of them. They barely have any defenders fit!  

I think my inner pessimist led me to write my previous reply. Did not realise we were in such good form, I think us not playing that well but still getting results, fooled me into thinking we were struggling more than we are :)

By brutal fixture list, I was mostly thinking about the amount of games we have left and small'ish squad, especially if we go further in the conference league. 

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2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

THANK YOU!

It's driving me crazy that people are still mentioning them. They're irrelevant

Mentioning who? 

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