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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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16 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Losing 8 of our last 14....with the recent defeats that would be losing 10 of our last 17 games.

I just think despite the present issues Emery is way too good to preside over such a bad run and he'll find a solution soon that papers over our weaknesses enough to still win enough games to have a serious chance of 4th going into May.

Sort of solution that would be beyond a Dean Smith but I fully expect Emery to come up with a season changing decision as he's proven it elsewhere over the last decade.

He's having the problems now that likes of Howe and Ten Hag faced a few months back and both seem to have come through it and will likely have strong end of seasons. Postacoglu aswell considering Spurs lost 4 out of 5 in November/early December.

If those teams can get back on track within two months why can't we be firing again by early March?

People were busy deriding Angeball when Spurs had that wobble. Did they actually realise they were missing half their team back then? They weren't losing to us with Maddison and their first choice CBs out there. They're now winning again so it's a bit bizarre we have one long term injury and immediately we're going to lose over half our games left in the run in.

I just said that if we don't turn this around we might be worse off than people here seem to think. Although, it seems more gloom has arrived so my thought has become the norm and thus irrelevant.

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I think our squad is about the 6th or 7th best in the league but has been performing above itself. 

The current available squad, with all the injuries to us and the injuries of the other sides around us have, is about the 10th best. 

So, can the 10th best squad perform well enough to hold onto a 5 point lead over 6th? That's what I'm wondering.

I was doubtful before Kamara and Carlos were injured. Now I'm convinced we will finish below 5th.

I think we will end up where we finished last season so 7th. Should still be Europe but winning the ECL this year would put us into the Europa League so that's got to be the aim.

It's not over of course, but these injuries are absolutely horrendous and on top of our poor form, I'd make Man United favourites to catch us at the least.

 

 

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I still think 4th is achievable but no higher.  4th-6th is now between us, Spurs and Man Utd, as it would take quite a collapse for us to end up any lower.  That seems unlikely under Emery.   

I'm not convinced we have the strength in depth or can hit the right form to win that particular battle, but hopefully Ramsey and Digne will get back to their best, Ollie will find his shooting boots, Torres and Konsa will come back strong,  Iroegbunam can step up and maybe the likes of Diaby and Zaniolo will finally start to live up to their reputations and valuations.  

After a full calendar year of being second or third best for points, finishing outside the top four will certainly feel like something of a disappointment.  But not so much when you to look at in the context of how far we've come in the last 5 years, three years and especially the last 15 months since we binned Gerrard.  I remember all too well that absolutely abject night at Craven Cottage.  We're a million miles from that now and 5th or 6th would still be very impressive in that context. 

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The more I think about our injuries this season, the more I think Emery will have worked a miracle to get us even 6th, let alone seriously challenging for a top 4 spot (which we have been doing).

I'd say we have a best 14, we all know who they are so no point in listing them. Of that 14, we've had

- 2 out for the ENTIRE season (Mings and Buendia, the latter may feature towards the end)

- 3 who will have missed huge chunks of the season (Kamara, Moreno and Ramsey)

- 3 who will have missed smaller but still significant portions of the season (Torres, Konsa, Digne and Tielemans)

And that's in addition to what has been at least an average injury occurrence among periphery players. And we're only in February.

Of course some of those key players are more dispensable than others (Ramsey and Moreno are not as vital as say, Martinez and Watkins for example) but still, it's been horrendous.

Edited by Mantis
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4 hours ago, RichW said:

I thought the same before we played West Ham and put them to the sword. Cunha ruled out for the season by the looks of it so they are a striker down who has just hit form. They need Neto to stay injury free for the rest of the season.

Got to factor in once the league table hits 30-32 games - some of these mid-table sides will start to see the beach in the distance. Can't qualify for Europe and not going to go down. Of course this works for Spurs/Man Utd aswell. 

We need to be beating Wolves for sure. Cunha was amazing for them in last few months so that's a huge blow to lose him and probably means they'll just float around 10th-11th rather than having a late charge for 7th as we did this time last year. Spurs will probably roll over Wolves comfortably at the weekend.

The target needs to be 7 wins I think. So four at home (Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and then a win over a big hitter as we'll mess up v Brentford I reckon) and then three away wins. Would be huge to do it at Fulham as then winning at Luton and Palace last day look realistic (as does West Ham in their current state).

Brighton is usually a certain away win but not sure we'll do it this year, depends who's still in europe at the time but they're getting most of their attackers back.

7 wins gets us to 67 points so with 3-4 draws on top (we simply can't lose at home to Spurs) I think that's still a very good chance of claiming 4th personally.

Edited by VillaChris
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Working in Stockport Manchester today, having a banter with some Man Poo fans, about the buy out and stuff, yawn.......

What did come out of it though, is how much we cannot let Man U get ahead of us, we will never ever live it down, talking about us like a tin pot club with no money. I might have to start going back to Milton Keynes to work, going to Manchester will be hell.

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2 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

I think our squad is about the 6th or 7th best in the league but has been performing above itself. 

The current available squad, with all the injuries to us and the injuries of the other sides around us have, is about the 10th best. 

So, can the 10th best squad perform well enough to hold onto a 5 point lead over 6th? That's what I'm wondering.

I was doubtful before Kamara and Carlos were injured. Now I'm convinced we will finish below 5th.

I think we will end up where we finished last season so 7th. Should still be Europe but winning the ECL this year would put us into the Europa League so that's got to be the aim.

It's not over of course, but these injuries are absolutely horrendous and on top of our poor form, I'd make Man United favourites to catch us at the least.

 

 

5th still our " Title ", 6th a decent season considering the circumstances and 7th a little underwhelming but still acceptable given the circumstances, and stable as well I guess.

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7 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Working in Stockport Manchester today, having a banter with some Man Poo fans, about the buy out and stuff, yawn.......

What did come out of it though, is how much we cannot let Man U get ahead of us, we will never ever live it down, talking about us like a tin pot club with no money. I might have to start going back to Milton Keynes to work, going to Manchester will be hell.

Man U fans are insufferable under normal circumstances, and unfortunately they are everywhere.

Especially the supporting friends, they'll be quiet forever but never fail to pop up in circumstances like this.

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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What is particularly annoying is that these spates of injuries were supposed to happen to the intense pressing teams - Newcastle, spurs, etc. Our style should have avoided it. Bad, bad luck. 

Anyway - still 4th or 5th for me. We'll adapt somehow. Could really do with everyone scoring from every chance now though. 

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57 minutes ago, rubberman said:

What is particularly annoying is that these spates of injuries were supposed to happen to the intense pressing teams - Newcastle, spurs, etc. Our style should have avoided it. Bad, bad luck. 

Anyway - still 4th or 5th for me. We'll adapt somehow. Could really do with everyone scoring from every chance now though. 

A combination really. 
 
Buendia and Diego’s are the only ones that did their injuries in training. 
 
Kamara and Mings did theres in game but Real Madrid have suffered 3 ACL injuries and they are a low pressing side. 
 
Konsa ran into a post. Pau kicked someone’s boot. Digne is always somewhat injured. JJ did his on international duty and Moreno last year. 
 
Just a perfect storm really. 

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1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

Will be good in the end that 5th isn't a Champions League spot for PL so we ultimately didn't miss out coming 6th or 7th.

Lazio winning gives Italy further edge now 

Huh?

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3 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

5th still our " Title ", 6th a decent season considering the circumstances and 7th a little underwhelming but still acceptable given the circumstances, and stable as well I guess.

I don't think 7th is good enough at all tbh. We'd need to win the competition to make europa league then. Also a chance if Chelsea win the league cup that 7th dosen't even qualify for europe.

People could say then we could have a real go at 4th next season just playing once a week (as Spurs have done) but I can't see our top players being happy at all with the slump so our squad would probably need to be reshaped like it was in summer 2021 and all the problems that arose because of that.

Finishing 7th also means we're finishing below a couple of clubs who we had 10-15 point leads over going into January.

Just feels same old Villa with a massive inferiority complex. Disappointed a fair few on here are already accepting and resigned to the possibility. 

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