Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[Mark Albrighton]

7 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

In what scenario would that happen? 

Even if we lose by 1 goal, our goal difference would mean we wouod have to hammer Brighton.

Even if Spurs lose as well.

If we are counting on goal difference then we are screwed as one thing I'm certain of is that we aren't finishing above Spurs on goal difference.

I guess Spurs being hammered by Brentford (4-0, I think) meaning our goal difference is better despite our hypothetical one goal defeat to Liverpool.

Then it would be a case of matching Spurs on the final day.

It’s not a scenario I feel is particularly likely, but I suppose it exists.

[MaVilla]

1 hour ago, Adam2003 said:

Worst case Fulham could win their two and go past us so we drop into 10th, right?

no no no, that would be worst, worst, WORST case scenario

[GlobalVillan]

9 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

I guess Spurs being hammered by Brentford (4-0, I think) meaning our goal difference is better despite our hypothetical one goal defeat to Liverpool.

Then it would be a case of matching Spurs on the final day.

It’s not a scenario I feel is particularly likely, but I suppose it exists.

The poster said they could see a situation where we are happy with a one goal loss so I assumed they meant a plausible scenario.

Spurs aren't going to lose 4-0 at home to Brentford. I'm pretty sure about that.

For all the negativity about Tottenham, they are actually above us. So they can't be that bad.

[Don_Simon]

5 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

 

For all the negativity about Tottenham, they are actually above us. So they can't be that bad.

They didn't have months of the Steven Gerrard experience. If it had been Emery all season, I think we'd be comfortably ahead of them.

[GlobalVillan]

21 minutes ago, Don_Simon said:

They didn't have months of the Steven Gerrard experience. If it had been Emery all season, I think we'd be comfortably ahead of them.

So do I, but they are still in the top 7 despite being in turmoil so my point is that they aren't all that bad a side. Despite the current narrative. 

[RichW]

Wolves result is probably going to be what killed Europa League but just have to say fair play Brighton. I had them down to lose to Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City but realistically they’re a good team and good teams don’t just have a drop off in form out of no where. Struggle to see them not beating Southampton at home which should be enough for them to seal 6th place and with Man City most likely winning the league next weekend they could get something out of that game aswell

Not expecting anything from Anfield so any points we gain there are a bonus, hopefully Brentford can get a draw against Spurs and Leeds are in a position where they need a win to give them a chance of staying up  

 

[Kiwivillan]

13 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

So do I, but they are still in the top 7 despite being in turmoil so my point is that they aren't all that bad a side. Despite the current narrative. 

They're 10th in form table since Emery took over with 15 less points than we've accrued and have 3 managers in that period so yeah they are that bad

[Kiwivillan]

9 minutes ago, RichW said:

Wolves result is probably going to be what killed Europa League but just have to say fair play Brighton. I had them down to lose to Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City but realistically they’re a good team and good teams don’t just have a drop off in form out of no where.

Except 5-1 loss at home to Everton a week ago

[Mark Albrighton]

22 minutes ago, RichW said:

Wolves result is probably going to be what killed Europa League but just have to say fair play Brighton. I had them down to lose to Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City but realistically they’re a good team and good teams don’t just have a drop off in form out of no where. Struggle to see them not beating Southampton at home which should be enough for them to seal 6th place and with Man City most likely winning the league next weekend they could get something out of that game aswell

Not expecting anything from Anfield so any points we gain there are a bonus, hopefully Brentford can get a draw against Spurs and Leeds are in a position where they need a win to give them a chance of staying up  

 

That’s fair enough, but all those teams are better than Brighton so thinking they might not collect many points wasn’t unreasonable. They are all higher up in the league for that reason. 

Throw in recent bad results against Forest and Everton and the reasoning had more credence. 

Also, good teams do have sudden drops in form. At the start of April, Arsenal were top by 8 points having won their previous 7 games in a row (so by definition THE best team in the league). Then, drop in form, they don’t win any of their next 4 games.

But however sound the reasoning was or wasn’t, Brighton have picked up more points from Man Utd and Arsenal than I thought they would. Again, well done them. If it had been them v Newcastle for sixth, I’d be delighted. But I’m less enthusiastic about it when we might have had it.

Ultimately though, Steven Gerrard had the biggest impact on our European aspirations than any single defeat of ours or indeed the form of Brighton or Spurs.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Mark Albrighton

[Vancvillan]

1 hour ago, GlobalVillan said:

For all the negativity about Tottenham, they are actually above us. So they can't be that bad.

"Last 10 games we sit in 14th with 12 points. And in that run of 10 games we played; Saints, Forest, Bournemouth, Everton, Palace, Villa to give it some perspective on how **** god awful it is."

   -from the fighting cock.

They are above us based on early season form. Current form, which is what matters right now, is the opposite story.

Looking forward past the summer, if they don't get the managerial appointment right and they lose Kane, they could be next season's Chelsea. 

[Captain_Townsend]

Of the run un, the game I am beginning to regret is Brentford away. Wolves was always going to be a tricky game as we are their cup final.

Two extra points right now would be huge for us.

[RichW]

35 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

Except 5-1 loss at home to Everton a week ago

Would have been easy for doubts to start creeping in after the loss to Everton but instead they’ve gone away to Arsenal and probably played the best any team has played at the Emirates this season bar Man City 2nd half. More than capable of doing the same to Newcastle and possibly a Man City team who have just won the league unfortunately. 

[PaulC]

I don't think the spurs players are that bothered about qualifying for the europa league or conference lesgue so that gives us the edge.  

[PaulC]

4 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Of the run un, the game I am beginning to regret is Brentford away. Wolves was always going to be a tricky game as we are their cup final.

Two extra points right now would be huge for us.

I think the Brentford point was a good one myself considering we were outplayed for much of the game and they are good at home. 

[RichW]

32 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

That’s fair enough, but all those teams are better than Brighton so thinking they might not collect many points wasn’t unreasonable. They are all higher up in the league for that reason. 

Throw in recent bad results against Forest and Everton and the reasoning had more credence. 

Also, good teams do have sudden drops in form. At the start of April, Arsenal were top by 8 points having won their previous 7 games in a row (so by definition THE best team in the league). Then, drop in form, they don’t win any of their next 4 games.

But however sound the reasoning was or wasn’t, Brighton have picked up more points from Man Utd and Arsenal than I thought they would. Again, well done them. If it had been them v Newcastle for sixth, I’d be delighted. But I’m less enthusiastic about it when we might have had it.

Ultimately though, Steven Gerrard had the biggest impact on our European aspirations than any single defeat of ours or indeed the form of Brighton or Spurs.

Think I will be more annoyed about finishing behind Spurs than Brighton. Brighton have been consistent but Spurs have been rubbish for a while now yet are level on points with us. To go 10 matches unbeaten with 8 wins and also beat Spurs but to miss out to them would be really frustrating. 

[Mark Albrighton]

2 minutes ago, RichW said:

Think I will be more annoyed about finishing behind Spurs than Brighton. Brighton have been consistent but Spurs have been rubbish for a while now yet are level on points with us. To go 10 matches unbeaten with 8 wins and also beat Spurs but to miss out to them would be really frustrating. 

I know, it’s kinda working out that the two clubs are having inverse seasons, broadly speaking.

Villa first 11 games of the season, 9 points. Significant improvement thereafter, top four-esque form.

Spurs, pretty much occupying a champions league place for the majority of the season. Their most recent 9 games towards the end of the campaign, 9 points.

[MagInPeace]

On 13/05/2023 at 17:27, Keyblade said:

We need a Liverpool win this weekend to keep the pressure on Newcastle so that they need to get a result against Brighton on Thursday.

We need a win regardless. Our fans are shitting ourselves that we’ll lose it on the final day. If Liverpool beat Leicester tomorrow then arses will well and truly twitch.

For what it’s worth I think you’ll finish 7th. If you don’t though, I fancy you for top 4 next year. 

 

[Sulberto21]

27 minutes ago, MagInPeace said:

We need a win regardless. Our fans are shitting ourselves that we’ll lose it on the final day. If Liverpool beat Leicester tomorrow then arses will well and truly twitch.

For what it’s worth I think you’ll finish 7th. If you don’t though, I fancy you for top 4 next year. 

 

If we don’t get Europe then I think we can maintain a sustained challenge for top 6. Moving forward hopefully we can break the cabal. 

[Adam2003]

8th is still the most likely place we finish but 7th wouldn’t be crazy. One win from two might do it. That Kane penalty could maddeningly end up being the difference, it’s that tight. Confident we have enough to hold off Brentford and Fulham.

Personally I think Brighton will be done and dusted by the time we play them and safely in Europe but unable to reach the CL - so hopefully we get them on the beach…

[VillaChris]

45 minutes ago, MagInPeace said:

We need a win regardless. Our fans are shitting ourselves that we’ll lose it on the final day. If Liverpool beat Leicester tomorrow then arses will well and truly twitch.

For what it’s worth I think you’ll finish 7th. If you don’t though, I fancy you for top 4 next year. 

 

All about the signings. We've had a similar last three months to you 12 months ago. Think you just missed out on europe and finished 8th? First 11 was working well but you still went out and got in three top class players in Pope, Botman and Isak and that's given you the platform to kick on and be in top 6 pretty much all season.

We need to do the same as 4th is still a very big ask with what everyone else above us will be spending.

It will be interesting to see how Newcastle do combining europe and prem. Bench yesterday had likes of Dummett, Manquillio, Anderson, Murphy (although he's done well in last few months as regular starter) and Matt Ritchie and Jamal Lewis are still knocking about so Newcastle are still a few transfer windows away from having a squad of 20 top class players, we've arguably got a stronger bench.