Irreverentad's Fantasy Premier League 2022/23

[Rds1983]

34 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

But why would you risk giving everyone else a headstart at this point of the season?

The chances of a throw of the dice working are pretty low. Sure if it works then you're loving life. But the reality is you will PROBABLY end up behind the pack and then you've given yourself a mountain to climb. For every person you noticed overtaking you in the ranks, there's probably a hundred who stayed behind you.

The best time to be aggressive is from a position of strength, imo. Give yourself a base to work from

If we're talking realities then the likelihood is any risk you take will more likely go wrong than right. But if you take a risk now you have chance to react to it whilst there is still time to course correct. 

I'm currently about 20/25 points behind BOF after picking Kane and Mount instead of Haaland and Kulu. Subsequently I have a GW1 rank of about 4m compared to his 900k. I'm fairly confident that in the next 37 GWs I could potentially overcome that 20 point gap and I'm very confident I can improve my rank as in 7 years I've only ever been outside top 500k once and been top 100k multiple times. 

If this was the last few GWs then it would be an awful lot harder to make it up. 

If you're going to take a risk, do it when you can afford to take it by reacting and fixing it. With the World Cup WC you also have an extra chance to course correct at the early stages. If you don't have chance to react to it going wrong then don't take that risk. 

Turn your question around and ask why would you risk giving everyone else a chance to get away from you at the end of the season? The only reason to do that is if you're desperate. 

I'm not suggesting that people should take risks (probably makes the game more fun though and people do take this way too seriously), I'm saying that if they do want to take a risk, do it while they have options available to try and fix it going wrong. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Rds1983

[Stevo985]

6 minutes ago, Rds1983 said:

If we're talking realities then the likelihood is any risk you take will more likely go wrong than right. But if you take a risk now you have chance to react to it whilst there is still time to course correct. 

I'm currently about 20/25 points behind BOF after picking Kane and Mount instead of Haaland and Kulu. Subsequently I have a GW1 rank of about 4m compared to his 900k. I'm fairly confident that in the next 37 GWs I could potentially overcome that 20 point gap and I'm very confident I can improve my rank as in 7 years I've only ever been outside top 500k once and been top 100k multiple times. 

If this was the last few GWs then it would be an awful lot harder to make it up. 

If you're going to take a risk, do it when you can afford to take it by reacting and fixing it. With the World Cup WC you also have an extra chance to course correct at the early stages. If you don't have chance to react to it going wrong then don't take that risk. 

Turn your question around and ask why would you risk giving everyone else a chance to get away from you at the end of the season? The only reason to do that is if you're desperate. 

I'm not suggesting that people should take risks (probably makes the game more fun though and people do take this way too seriously), I'm saying that if they do want to take a risk, do it while they have options available to try and fix it going wrong. 

At the end of the season you have a far more rounded view of what sort of risk you need to take. if you get to GW35 ish and you're 10k in the world, you're probably not going to take that risk, unless there's some personal goal you're trying to hit.

If you're behind where you want to be then taking the risk is worth it.

I just think taking it now means you're likely to give up a chunk of points to everyone else for no reason. You say you have longer to make it up, but that's not really how it works is it. If someone gives up 20 seconds to Max Verstappen on lap 1 they have all race to make it back up. but the reality is they could easily fall further behind.

Of course it's not a disaster and you can still make up loads of rank, but just seems a needless way to give up an advantage

[tomav84]

38 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

If you own Haaland, he has to be captain this week imo. I think they'll hammer Bournemouth. His EO will be enormous. Missing out on that could be disastrous.

it's not certain that they'll hammer bournemouth. but it's certainly possible. it could be one of those games you look back on and think "why didn't I captain him when everyone else did"

i do agree with BOF...stay with the pack. if haaland blanks, chances are you wont lose much ground with so many in the same boat

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, tomav84 said:

it's not certain that they'll hammer bournemouth. but it's certainly possible. it could be one of those games you look back on and think "why didn't I captain him when everyone else did"

i do agree with BOF...stay with the pack. if haaland blanks, chances are you wont lose much ground with so many in the same boat

Exactly. I expect his EO to be 160% plus. If he blanks you probably won't lose out much at all. 

As for them hammering Bournemouth, it's not guaranteed. But on a hot afternoon, a newly promoted team vs Man City, a team that don't let you have the ball, with someone like Haaland to attack the tired legs. I think it's got all the ingredients of a hammering.

I assume Bournemouth will play a low block so it'll be interesting to see how Haaland works against that, but could you really stomach this game without Haaland as captain

[Stevo985]

Worth noting Haaland has already risen in price twice this week. if you were hoping to do Kane to Haaland this week and you haven't already, it's probably too late

[tomav84]

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

Worth noting Haaland has already risen in price twice this week. if you were hoping to do Kane to Haaland this week and you haven't already, it's probably too late

just once but the predictors all say he'll go up again tonight so make that change now or be stung for another 0.1m

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

just once but the predictors all say he'll go up again tonight so make that change now or be stung for another 0.1m

Ah sorry i've been misinformed

[BOF]

7 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

it's not certain that they'll hammer bournemouth. but it's certainly possible. it could be one of those games you look back on and think "why didn't I captain him when everyone else did"

i do agree with BOF...stay with the pack. if haaland blanks, chances are you wont lose much ground with so many in the same boat

And just to clarify, I'm not against differentials because ultimately they're what will mark you out from the crowd at the end. But there are levels, and there is information. We're only going into week 2. We have hardly any knowledge. We just don't know enough, and veering away from someone as ostensibly explosive as Haaland so early on could (and it is only a 'could' ...) be really annoying

I think a lot of people will roll their FT this week.  I think FPL Wire mentioned about 60% of the game are. That's incredibly high. So I think we might see some mini-wildcards (2FTs + a hit) going into GW3 as people get the 2 weeks of info behind them.  I think we'll start to see some divergence then.  The irony being that if you were to stay where you are squad-wise, plenty of people will mess themselves up and you'll climb then too.  Although the ones who get it right will start to gain.

[Stevo985]

24 minutes ago, BOF said:

And just to clarify, I'm not against differentials because ultimately they're what will mark you out from the crowd at the end. But there are levels, and there is information. We're only going into week 2. We have hardly any knowledge. We just don't know enough, and veering away from someone as ostensibly explosive as Haaland so early on could (and it is only a 'could' ...) be really annoying

I think a lot of people will roll their FT this week.  I think FPL Wire mentioned about 60% of the game are. That's incredibly high. So I think we might see some mini-wildcards (2FTs + a hit) going into GW3 as people get the 2 weeks of info behind them.  I think we'll start to see some divergence then.  The irony being that if you were to stay where you are squad-wise, plenty of people will mess themselves up and you'll climb then too.  Although the ones who get it right will start to gain.

That's certainly my plan. Although my transfers will probably be boring.

Bailey to Andreas (assuming Andreas is as impressive this weekend as he was vs Liverpool) and use the 0.5 to upgrade Rashford

[BOF]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

That's certainly my plan. Although my transfers will probably be boring.

Bailey to Andreas (assuming Andreas is as impressive this weekend as he was vs Liverpool) and use the 0.5 to upgrade Rashford

I already have both   I will be getting rid of Digne. I just hope he can return for me as a swansong. The question then is how high do I go. Zinchenko, Perisic or James. I'd like to move up from Bailey but everything depends on the defensive transfer, unless something new comes out of this week. I'm quite happy with my team going forward.

[Stevo985]

Just now, BOF said:

I already have both   I will be getting rid of Digne. I just hope he can return for me as a swansong. The question then is how high do I go. Zinchenko, Perisic or James. I'd like to move up from Bailey but everything depends on the defensive transfer, unless something new comes out of this week. I'm quite happy with my team going forward.

I had Andreas in all my drafts and went for Bailey in the end because I ended up with an extra 0.5 in the bank. Wish I hadn't. I'm probably being too hard on Bailey and Villa but I'm not optimistic.

I'll take a close look on Saturday

[wilko154]

After last season with a top 8k finish I can probably give some advice on a successful season in FPL. I've pretty much learnt where I went wrong in previous years.

• Don't take gambles, especially not early in the season. If a gamble doesn't pay off not only do you lose out on points, you then have to waste transfers fixing the mess you have made.
• Make transfers as late in the week as possible. This week was an exception with the Haaland/Kane price changes. You want to know all the information available ideally, I usually wait for the Friday press conferences.
• If you aren't sure on a transfer, bank it. It's always better to have two transfers in the bank for flexibility rather than making a move you aren't sure about.
• Consistency is the key for a successful season. You essentially want a steady team that's picking up points consistently that you can tweak to adapt to upcoming GW's. Try to plan ahead a few weeks and work out what transfers you need to make to get key players in. High scoring gameweek's are nice but they won't win you the season if you then have low scoring one's because your team isn't set up for future fixtures.

For me this season the midfield is looking like a weak area, I would be loading up on the high scoring defenders until some consistent midfielders appear in the next few weeks. Save your wildcards, save your chips. You chose this starting team for a reason, so go with it another week if you can.

[tomav84]

1 minute ago, wilko154 said:

After last season with a top 8k finish I can probably give some advice on a successful season in FPL. I've pretty much learnt where I went wrong in previous years.

• Don't take gambles, especially not early in the season. If a gamble doesn't pay off not only do you lose out on points, you then have to waste transfers fixing the mess you have made.
• Make transfers as late in the week as possible. This week was an exception with the Haaland/Kane price changes. You want to know all the information available ideally, I usually wait for the Friday press conferences.
• If you aren't sure on a transfer, bank it. It's always better to have two transfers in the bank for flexibility rather than making a move you aren't sure about.
• Consistency is the key for a successful season. You essentially want a steady team that's picking up points consistently that you can tweak to adapt to upcoming GW's. Try to plan ahead a few weeks and work out what transfers you need to make to get key players in. High scoring gameweek's are nice but they won't win you the season if you then have low scoring one's because your team isn't set up for future fixtures.

For me this season the midfield is looking like a weak area, I would be loading up on the high scoring defenders until some consistent midfielders appear in the next few weeks. Save your wildcards, save your chips. You chose this starting team for a reason, so go with it another week if you can.

the price changes are a bastard. i, like your advice above, planned to bring martinelli in in a couple of weeks time when arsenal have an easy few games. seeing his price about to go up forced me into a transfer earlier than planned and actually had to take a -4 hit this week as i also made the kane/haaland transfer.

hoping this coming week will be quieter in terms of prices. i'd like to save my transfers this week if possible but if mahrez is benched again i can see him trending towards a drop in price which might force my hand. he's already on a downward trajectory.

[Stevo985]

This is the stage in the season where price changes are far more important than the rest of the season. A 0.1 change now is really like a 0.5 change because the prices are so structured in 0.5 increments that a 0.1 shift prices you out of a whole price point.

Later in the season it matters far less

[Wainy316]

Watch Pep bench Haaland this week

[wilko154]

23 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

the price changes are a bastard. i, like your advice above, planned to bring martinelli in in a couple of weeks time when arsenal have an easy few games. seeing his price about to go up forced me into a transfer earlier than planned and actually had to take a -4 hit this week as i also made the kane/haaland transfer.

hoping this coming week will be quieter in terms of prices. i'd like to save my transfers this week if possible but if mahrez is benched again i can see him trending towards a drop in price which might force my hand. he's already on a downward trajectory.

I like Martinelli, looked good last week and cheaper than Saka. Long term it's a good transfer.

Mahrez is one of those players who can be great for specific games if you know he's starting, but is constantly rotated so not a long term hold. I think he'll start this week though as he was on the bench last weekend.

[BOF]

1 minute ago, wilko154 said:

Mahrez is one of those players who can be great for specific games if you know he's starting, but is constantly rotated so not a long term hold. I think he'll start this week though as he was on the bench last weekend.

The one thing going in his favour this season is the 5 subs rule. Far more likely he gets at least half an hour or more each week now than last season, and as we know, a City player can do damage in half an hour.

[wilko154]

26 minutes ago, BOF said:

The one thing going in his favour this season is the 5 subs rule. Far more likely he gets at least half an hour or more each week now than last season, and as we know, a City player can do damage in half an hour.

I keep forgetting about this 5 subs rule

[Rds1983]

2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

At the end of the season you have a far more rounded view of what sort of risk you need to take. if you get to GW35 ish and you're 10k in the world, you're probably not going to take that risk, unless there's some personal goal you're trying to hit.

If you're behind where you want to be then taking the risk is worth it.

I just think taking it now means you're likely to give up a chunk of points to everyone else for no reason. You say you have longer to make it up, but that's not really how it works is it. If someone gives up 20 seconds to Max Verstappen on lap 1 they have all race to make it back up. but the reality is they could easily fall further behind.

Of course it's not a disaster and you can still make up loads of rank, but just seems a needless way to give up an advantage

Your F1 analogy. Would you rather make a mistake and give up 20 seconds to Verstappen in the first or final lap? In the final lap you not only lose out on Verstappen but probably also the podium. 

Just because you don't know all variables right now doesn't mean you couldn't benefit from taking a risk. It could be a massive advantage based upon your falling behind argument. The current no1 got 13 points of Mitrovic who could be considered a gamble after his previous top flight campaigns. He got lucky and he's now ahead of the pack and we're all playing catch up. 

You never know all the variables and it's just luck if you pull it off or not. You can try and minimise the risk but it's still there. 

[BOF]

By the way please don't think I, or anyone else, is trying to dictate how someone plays the game. I say absolutely go for it if you have a feeling for something. That's not me being facetious and wishing you into a disaster. It's a game and it should be fun. Play it your way. We only ever come in here beacuse I assume we like the to and fro of talking the game too. Trying to steal a march is fun. Having the guy who hauls is a great feeling. I was only saying that GW2 might be a bit early.  Even 2 or 3 more weeks makes it a much 'safer' punt.  Personally I think going into gameweek 2 is about the most dangerous week of the season, because we're "armed" with 1 solitary week of info that will steer us heavily in one direction which could be (and often is...) completely thrown out the window by the gameweek 2 info.  So it's almost like a false confidence making GW2 decisions.  Even GW3 doubles the amount of info you have.  Now I accept that in GW2 by picking the right person you could make big gains. Just for me it's statistically less likely, that's all.  But always, always, play the game the way you want to play it and don't pay mind to us if you don't agree with the approach.  If we all played the same, we'd end up with the same players and that'd be proper shit