Freedom for Tooting! And other similar nutty fringe communities

[chrisp65]

44 minutes ago, bickster said:

That’s not particularly true, Since 1960 there have been sixteen general elections the Tories are two up with nine victories to seven Labour. If Labour win as expected in the next one, that'll be seventeen elections and there'll be one victory between them. Even if you take it back to the end of WW2 the Tories are only currently three up in a series of twenty-one

Of course it depends where your jumping in point is as to how you perceive it but the idea that we nearly always get Tory governments is demonstrably incorrect

So, excluding the war years, there have been 60 years of tory government since there was something like universal suffrage and a Labour Party to vote for. That feels a better measure than nominally choosing 1960?

How many times has Wales voted tory in the last 100 years? It’s zero.

It’s true.

 

[bickster]

7 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

So, excluding the war years, there have been 60 years of tory government since there was something like universal suffrage and a Labour Party to vote for. That feels a better measure than nominally choosing 1960?

How many times has Wales voted tory in the last 100 years? It’s zero.

It’s true.

 

I picked 1960, nor arbitrarily but because it’s doubtful that anyone on VT had any interest in politics before that time, I then went back to WW2 as it’s an often quoted metric because the world and the UK changed at that point

I doubt Wales is alone in not voting Tory for a very long time. I think you have to go back to the 60s at least to when the Tories had any representation in Liverpool. Certainly since the 1974 local Govt reorganisation it’s never voted Tory

Wales is also not politically one homogenous mass and it’s never voted for a majority of Plaid (other independence movements are available) and that is somewhat relevant as it’s never really indicated as a whole that it wants independence either.

[chrisp65]

39 minutes ago, bickster said:

I picked 1960, nor arbitrarily but because it’s doubtful that anyone on VT had any interest in politics before that time, I then went back to WW2 as it’s an often quoted metric because the world and the UK changed at that point

I doubt Wales is alone in not voting Tory for a very long time. I think you have to go back to the 60s at least to when the Tories had any representation in Liverpool. Certainly since the 1974 local Govt reorganisation it’s never voted Tory

Wales is also not politically one homogenous mass and it’s never voted for a majority of Plaid (other independence movements are available) and that is somewhat relevant as it’s never really indicated as a whole that it wants independence either.

Completely accept its a work in progress and any concerted idea of independence is relatively recently re discovered. But it’s something well worth working towards and educating people on. Once people have all the information, and don’t just believe in their own lack of talent or agency, then things can only improve.

I can’t really say I’ve got any opinion on a Liverpool argument for independence. Though I know places like Cornwall have small indie movements because they also feel they are not getting the best deal and would be better off in charge of their own affairs rather than hoping their year will eventually arrive in Westminster.

Wales not being politically homogenous is correct, and a good thing. There are umbrella parties such as Plaid, single issue parties such as the Greens, more socially conservative parties such as Propel or Gwlad. English speaking areas, Welsh speaking areas, industrial and agricultural. All with one thing in common. They’d be better off if they didn’t have to hope for some Westminster hand outs. I cannot see the argument where we are better off with 32 of the 650 MP’s in Westminster, rather than taking responsibility for ourselves. 

 

 

[desensitized43]

45 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Completely accept its a work in progress and any concerted idea of independence is relatively recently re discovered. But it’s something well worth working towards and educating people on. Once people have all the information, and don’t just believe in their own lack of talent or agency, then things can only improve.

I can’t really say I’ve got any opinion on a Liverpool argument for independence. Though I know places like Cornwall have small indie movements because they also feel they are not getting the best deal and would be better off in charge of their own affairs rather than hoping their year will eventually arrive in Westminster.

Wales not being politically homogenous is correct, and a good thing. There are umbrella parties such as Plaid, single issue parties such as the Greens, more socially conservative parties such as Propel or Gwlad. English speaking areas, Welsh speaking areas, industrial and agricultural. All with one thing in common. They’d be better off if they didn’t have to hope for some Westminster hand outs. I cannot see the argument where we are better off with 32 of the 650 MP’s in Westminster, rather than taking responsibility for ourselves. 

 

 

That's such a condescending statement. To imply that those who favour the union are uninformed, lacking in personal self-belief or belief in their country.

It's a very Brexit-y argument, if I can say that.

It's perfectly possible to be a patriotic Welshman and a patriotic Brit. Just as it was to a patriotic Brit and European. I speak as someone of Welsh heritage who has family there. Throwing out such nonsense just seeks to divide and other people. It's easier to convince yourself of the righteousness of a cause if you look down on people, see them as inferior or lacking something in some way rather than seeing them as people with a different point of view. I don't doubt you believe in your position, just as someone like say Liz Truss or Suella Braverman (extreme examples, I give you) would believe in theirs...it doesn't make it right though.

[chrisp65]

13 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

That's such a condescending statement. To imply that those who favour the union are uninformed, lacking in personal self-belief or belief in their country.

It's a very Brexit-y argument, if I can say that.

It's perfectly possible to be a patriotic Welshman and a patriotic Brit. Just as it was to a patriotic Brit and European. I speak as someone of Welsh heritage who has family there. Throwing out such nonsense just seeks to divide and other people. It's easier to convince yourself of the righteousness of a cause if you look down on people, see them as inferior or lacking something in some way rather than seeing them as people with a different point of view. I don't doubt you believe in your position, just as someone like say Liz Truss or Suella Braverman (extreme examples, I give you) would believe in theirs...it doesn't make it right though.

Well it looks like we disagree. But you feel people don’t need any more information if they favour unionism, as that would be condescending. Whereas I would welcome more information. I’ve also not mentioned patriotism or described others as inferior. Quite the opposite, I see them as equals.

But I’m the Brexity one? Sounds legit..

 

[desensitized43]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

Well it looks like we disagree. But you feel people don’t need any more information if they favour unionism, as that would be condescending. Whereas I would welcome more information. I’ve also not mentioned patriotism or described others as inferior. Quite the opposite, I see them as equals.

But I’m the Brexity one? Sounds legit..

 

No you just implied that if people read a little more they'd agree with you....totally not a condescending point of view....

[meregreen]

The problem has always been that the progressive vote has been split between Labour and Liberal. The Tories never poll a majority of the electorate. They’re scared of Reform because of the splitting of their vote. Demographics will also be a problem for them, for younger voters they are regarded as poisonous. 

[chrisp65]

21 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

No you just implied that if people read a little more they'd agree with you....totally not a condescending point of view....

I’ve said things improve when people have all the information. If that offends you, there’s not much I can do about it. I haven’t mentioned heritage, or patriotism, or reading, or others being inferior or any of the other stuff you’re seeing.

[sidcow]

17 hours ago, meregreen said:

Perhaps we should reconstitute Mercia, Wessex, Northumberland and Danelaw then. Unity, sadly, is rare, due to human weakness. But it is always better.

The Cornish can **** off an all. 

Edited April 30 by sidcow

[meregreen]

53 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The Cornish can **** off an all. 

No clotted cream teas and pasties, that’s too high a price to pay.

[sidcow]

29 minutes ago, meregreen said:

No clotted cream teas and pasties, that’s too high a price to pay.

Devon will provide. 

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Devon will provide. 

But they put the stuff on in the wrong order!

[blandy]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Completely accept its a work in progress and any concerted idea of independence is relatively recently re discovered. But it’s something well worth working towards and educating people on. Once people have all the information, and don’t just believe in their own lack of talent or agency, then things can only improve.

The thing is, at least from my perspective, having lived for a while in Scotland (long time ago) and Cornwall (also...) when I was in those places, the concept of independence seemed (more) attractive, and I still feel if I lived in Wales, or Scotland for example I'd be quite likely to favour independence. But it's not an "education/information" thing, it's a kind of emotion thing, a thing about "those buggers far away don't care about us, we'd be better off looking after ourselves". The first half of that emotive argument is absolutely correct, and takes the driving seat for a heck of a lot of people, and understandably so - like I say it did with me, particularly when my then partner was all for independence. I think the idea that you put forward, though, that the second part of the emotive argument around looking after our own and once people have all the information, and don’t just believe in their own lack of talent or agency, then things can only improve for the nationalist cause is quite wrong. I think the opposite is true, that the valid emotional "they don't care about us" is kind of trumped for many by, like, "I live in Morayshire, does Edinburgh 170 miles away really care any more about me than London does? What about the currency, what about having to pay more tax, what about the EU, will they let us in, and if not how do we...what about..." and then the people who could provide information - they're either (say) SNP or (say) Labour - basically already minded one way or the other and so not really neutral or unbiased providers of easily digestible information. Same applies with Wales, or Catalunia, or wherever else.

I think the first step on the way (whichever way that is) is to solve the problem of the massive over centralisation of the UK on London. I think bot the Lib Dems and the Labours and Greenses are all in favour of much more localisation of power and resources. If the next Guvmint of the UK actually sets off on doing that enabling of local control, then the situation might become less fervent and then maybe a more balanced and less emotional debate could be had. Loathing of the Tories definitely fires up Nationalists and Nationalist parties and strengthens the emotional argument for Independence, and that's not really a good thing for anyone. Brexit has shown that emotional decision making doesn't end well.

[bickster]

We all know about divide and conquer

The logic of, don't like Tories, we get Tories sometimes, let's be independent and have no more Tories...

It's like doing the divide bit for them

Not only is it self harm, it harms the others you've left behind

Oh and at some point you'll end up with Tories... in a smaller country

[mjmooney]

4 hours ago, blandy said:

But they put the stuff on in the wrong order!

No they don't. 

#teamcreamfirst 

[chrisp65]

8 hours ago, blandy said:

The thing is, at least from my perspective, having lived for a while in Scotland (long time ago) and Cornwall (also...) when I was in those places, the concept of independence seemed (more) attractive, and I still feel if I lived in Wales, or Scotland for example I'd be quite likely to favour independence. But it's not an "education/information" thing, it's a kind of emotion thing, a thing about "those buggers far away don't care about us, we'd be better off looking after ourselves". The first half of that emotive argument is absolutely correct, and takes the driving seat for a heck of a lot of people, and understandably so - like I say it did with me, particularly when my then partner was all for independence. I think the idea that you put forward, though, that the second part of the emotive argument around looking after our own and once people have all the information, and don’t just believe in their own lack of talent or agency, then things can only improve for the nationalist cause is quite wrong. I think the opposite is true, that the valid emotional "they don't care about us" is kind of trumped for many by, like, "I live in Morayshire, does Edinburgh 170 miles away really care any more about me than London does? What about the currency, what about having to pay more tax, what about the EU, will they let us in, and if not how do we...what about..." and then the people who could provide information - they're either (say) SNP or (say) Labour - basically already minded one way or the other and so not really neutral or unbiased providers of easily digestible information. Same applies with Wales, or Catalunia, or wherever else.

I think the first step on the way (whichever way that is) is to solve the problem of the massive over centralisation of the UK on London. I think bot the Lib Dems and the Labours and Greenses are all in favour of much more localisation of power and resources. If the next Guvmint of the UK actually sets off on doing that enabling of local control, then the situation might become less fervent and then maybe a more balanced and less emotional debate could be had. Loathing of the Tories definitely fires up Nationalists and Nationalist parties and strengthens the emotional argument for Independence, and that's not really a good thing for anyone. Brexit has shown that emotional decision making doesn't end well.

 

For me, we’ve had a period of time where the bottom right bit of the island has had a go at managing the whole island and it’s had a varying and debatable degree of success. In practical unemotional terms, how long do you give it? Will it radically improve its ability to ‘level up’ if we give it another 100 years? I strongly suspect not. Leopards and spots and all that.

The experiment with devolved decentralisation has had limited success, and I strongly suspect the altering of the voting system to a form of regional PR with party lists is not going to help it be much more than a glorified extra tier of administration. Scared to run the police service, scared to get involved with the justice system, scared to take tax raising powers, the party list system will only encourage more party people and less thinkers. I’ve seen 26 years of ‘welsh’ Labour and it basically involves standing around the fax machine awaiting instructions from HQ.

There is an emotional side, the football is a blessed relief sometimes and it would be lovely to have a crack at Eurovision. But I’m not really going to shag any flag.

The old problems of currency and all that have been played out multiple times. We’ve all seen the newspaper articles from various decades that pronounce that Ireland lacks the skills to survive alone, that Malta lacks the resource and the money to survive without Blighty, all that. Yet so far I’m not sure its a very long list, the list of territories that have tried independence and then asked to come back under the protection of Westminster.

Just to repeat again as elsewhere in the thread. It’s not so much an anti anybody thing. Thanks for all the help with getting the coal and the slate out of the ground and getting the water and the steel and the agriculture. Perhaps we should take it from here because to date, there’s not a lot of obvious residual benefit and currently Westminster appears to have run out of ideas. Other than more wind farms and nuclear power stations for a country already producing more energy than it consumes and a nation that has to pay the crown estate for access to its own seabed. Money and energy straight out of the local economy, with some then gifted back as a gesture, then re acquired for ‘national’ projects such as HS2, which is then scrapped, so the re acquired money fixes London pot holes. That’s one recent example from 100 years of reservoirs and nuclear power stations and fast trains to London.

It’s not emotional, it’s just not a logical system. Wales has a greater GDP and more natural resource than much of the EU, how many decades of mis management to you allow awaiting the Great Leap Forward before you have to think perhaps, just perhaps, we couldn’t make a worse fist of it ourselves so why not relieve Westminster of the burden and the nuisance.

We could be in Eurovision then.

 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

currently Westminster appears to have run out of ideas

I mean, I don’t see it the same way as you do, but on the quoted bit, yeah, amen, brother.

[Cizzler]

I wonder why secession/independence is a big issue in the U.K. (Scots, Welsh, N.I all have serious independent movements) but it barely registers in the USA.

Would California, Texas, New York, etc be stronger independently than in the USA? Do States have a greater degree of autonomy/power within the Federal system than our devolved assemblies? Or is there just less emotive baggage/more patriotism.

[Davkaus]

2 minutes ago, Cizzler said:

Or is there just less emotive baggage/more patriotism.

My money is it being driven by much more flag shagging in America.

Most of the country have schoolkids reciting a pledge of allegience for **** sake, the country is basically a cult with a flag.

[Cizzler]

On 30/04/2024 at 08:31, chrisp65 said:

I cannot see the argument where we are better off with 32 of the 650 MP’s in Westminster, rather than taking responsibility for ourselves. 

Where do you draw the line here, though. Each constituency is only 1 vote out of 650 - would each be better off taking responsibility for themselves?

Surely there are some economies of scale that comes from collaborating together? Or is Wales' population just the optimum size of a modern nation state.