Ollie Watkins

[Tom13]

11 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Just to put data to this. Watkins in our last three games

xG captures the probability of a goal being scored from the position / situation the shot was taken from. while Post shot xG is the probability of the goal being scored after the shot was taken (ie how good was the shot). 

Watkins has had three post shot xG of 0.49 a 0.87 and a 0.86 all saved in his last 3 games all from 0.16, 0.17 and 0.37xG. Which means he took his chance well, struck it well and it was well saved by the keeper. 

Furthermore he has had 4 goal creating actions so far this season, one per game (with exception being Liverpool). 

It's tiresome for people to constantly appear when he's not scored for a while and say he's not good enough etc. Despite Watkins being a fantastic all round team player who has proven he scores at the rate of his expected goals and is very important for the team. He's always been a player to score in streaks too. 

I don't pipe up when he's not scoring. He's not a fantastic all round team player. He's good at that in some ways with his tireless work and creating space etc. But a lot of our more intricate play breaks down because of his poor technique/slow decision making.

[DJBOB]

11 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Just to put data to this. Watkins in our last two home games

xG of those and psXG captures the probability of a goal being scored from the position / situation the shot was taken from. while Post shot xG is the probability of the goal being scored after the shot was taken (ie how good was the shot). 

Watkins has had three post shot xG of 0.49 a 0.87 and a 0.86 all saved in his last 3 games all from 0.16, 0.17 and 0.37xG. Which means he took his chance well, struck it well and it was well saved by the keeper. 

Furthermore he has had 4 goal creating actions so far this season, one per game (with exception being Liverpool). 

It's tiresome for people to constantly appear when he's not scored for a while and say he's not good enough etc. Despite Watkins being a fantastic all round team player who has proven he scores at the rate of his expected goals and is very important for the team. He's always been a player to score in streaks too. 

Yeah it’s hard I think when strikers aren’t scoring goals, especially 1v1’s. 
 
All the underlyings look the same. The perception is that he’s been less involved in the build up (less touches) but we’ve been in odd games where we’ve either been losing for most of the match or the opponents haven’t bothered to come out of it. 
 
Watching him, there’s definitely a concentrated effort to keep him on the last line, therefore generating more goal and shot creating actions but less involved in the build up.

Think it’ll be a case of wait and see. I think the goals will come back but there are plenty read for him to fail. 

[DJBOB]

48 minutes ago, jim said:

Apologies if already mentioned, when Duran scored he didn’t immediately celebrate with the rest of them. He may have went over afterwards but initially he didn’t even look in Durans direction.

Only Bailey and Luiz came over and let him celebrate for a moment before pulling him back to restart. No one else came over either. Eager to get the 3 points the rest of the team. 
 
In general, he’s pretty non celebratory unless it’s something weird like Cash scoring a brace. McGinn was interviewed about him and said he’s quite stroppy when he doesn’t score.

[MrBlack]

49 minutes ago, jim said:

Apologies if already mentioned, when Duran scored he didn’t immediately celebrate with the rest of them. He may have went over afterwards but initially he didn’t even look in Durans direction.

I clocked that. Barely even seemed remotely happy that we'd scored. Not the usual Ollie in that respect. 

[Don_Simon]

5 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

In general, he’s pretty non celebratory unless it’s something weird like Cash scoring a brace. McGinn was interviewed about him and said he’s quite stroppy when he doesn’t score.

He's been stroppy for a long time then.

[Vive_La_Villa]

49 minutes ago, nick76 said:

What makes you so certain? In this new current climate he might try and run down his contract to get a deal where he wants.

 

48 minutes ago, mikeyp102 said:

Is he? Seems to have been rumbling on a long time now, surprised we haven’t heard anything yet.

He seems happy enough. It feels like a similar situation to Dougie. If the fee is right he can leave or sign a new deal. I personally think he will sign a new deal and feel quite sure about it.
 

Of course I could be completely wrong.

[wishywashy]

It's difficult because Watkins, when he's on a good run, is hands down one of the best and most talented strikers in the league. The issue is that when he's not on a good run you can very obviously tell it gets to him, and he starts making pretty weird decisions during goal-scoring opportunities. He's his own worst enemy at times.

One of the aspects that xG doesn't really capture is the pre-shot decision-making. Take his 1v1 early on that gets saved: the shot he took just has an xG of 0.16. From that alone you'd get the impression it wasn't really a good chance. But if you watch the clip back (it's the first one on Sky highlights) you see that he shoots first-time despite there being no pressure on him: obviously this is not the best way to maximise that chance. If he takes another touch (which he can easily do given there's nobody around him) then he's closer to goal, he'd force the keeper to have to try and move and overall the chance would just be better. 

I feel this is why Villa fans get a bit frustrated with him even though looking at his xG he's actually a generally consistent finisher. When he's not on a roll imo he has a tendency to scuff these split-second decisions a bit: where he does everything else right but makes it more difficult for himself by kind of panicking at the final hurdle, especially if he's in a bit of a goal drought.

Edited September 18, 2023 by wishywashy

[DJBOB]

2 minutes ago, wishywashy said:

It's difficult because Watkins, when he's on a good run, is hands down one of the best and most talented strikers in the league. The issue is that when he's not on a good run you can very obviously tell it gets to him, and he starts making pretty weird decisions during goal-scoring opportunities. He's his own worst enemy at times.

One of the aspects that xG doesn't really capture is the pre-shot decision-making. Take his 1v1 early on that gets saved: the shot he took just has an xG of 0.16. From that alone you'd get the impression it wasn't really a good chance. But if you watch the clip back (it's the first one on Sky highlights) you see that he shoots first-time despite there being no pressure on him: obviously this is not the best way to maximise that chance. If he takes another touch (which he can easily do given there's nobody around him) then he's closer to goal, he'd force the keeper to have to try and move and overall the chance would just be better. 

I feel this is why Villa fans get a bit frustrated with him even though looking at his xG he's actually a generally consistent finisher. When he's not on a roll imo he has a tendency to scuff these split-second decisions a bit: where he does everything else right but makes it more difficult for himself by kind of panicking at the final hurdle, especially if he's in a bit of a goal drought.

Yeah purely confidence. For me - it makes sense to just keep backing him because historically, the goals will come in.

There's that pressure to make something happen. If only he could meditate with Bertie, who always thinks there's more time to take a shot than necessary.

[Tomaszk]

1 hour ago, jim said:

Apologies if already mentioned, when Duran scored he didn’t immediately celebrate with the rest of them. He may have went over afterwards but initially he didn’t even look in Durans direction.

Yeah I thought it was weird. He didn't even rush to get the ball. Been pretty grumpy this season. Showing in his performance as well. Not diving for that Cash cross really pissed me off for some reason. Like he thinks that's not something he should be doing.

14 minutes ago, Don_Simon said:

He's been stroppy for a long time then.

It's been a long three weeks.

[CVByrne]

54 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

Yeah it’s hard I think when strikers aren’t scoring goals, especially 1v1’s. 
 
All the underlyings look the same. The perception is that he’s been less involved in the build up (less touches) but we’ve been in odd games where we’ve either been losing for most of the match or the opponents haven’t bothered to come out of it. 
 
Watching him, there’s definitely a concentrated effort to keep him on the last line, therefore generating more goal and shot creating actions but less involved in the build up.

Think it’ll be a case of wait and see. I think the goals will come back but there are plenty read for him to fail. 

Watkins has proven himself enough for me not to worry about him until he breaks his underlying data from last three seasons

G/90 - xG/90

0.38 - 0.39

0.34 - 0.35

0.43 - 0.47

That's from 9400 mins of PL football. When the season is all said and done his goals track his expected goals. xG is more stable than goals, it's like if I roll a dice 100 times how many times will I roll a 6. There's a 16.66% chance of rolling a 6 each time, but I can easily roll a streak10 times without getting a six. In the end though you'll get 15-18 6s rolled. 

This season his xG/90 is 0.52 and his average xG per shot is 0.17. These are great numbers and shows he's doing everything right and the goals are coming. I am as happy with Ollie now as I've ever been. Probably more happy with him as Emery has improved him

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by CVByrne

[Don_Simon]

36 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

It's been a long three weeks.

Oh, if we're counting goals again L2 standard teams, I owe you a gigantic touche.

[CVByrne]

39 minutes ago, wishywashy said:

It's difficult because Watkins, when he's on a good run, is hands down one of the best and most talented strikers in the league. The issue is that when he's not on a good run you can very obviously tell it gets to him, and he starts making pretty weird decisions during goal-scoring opportunities. He's his own worst enemy at times.

One of the aspects that xG doesn't really capture is the pre-shot decision-making. Take his 1v1 early on that gets saved: the shot he took just has an xG of 0.16. From that alone you'd get the impression it wasn't really a good chance. But if you watch the clip back (it's the first one on Sky highlights) you see that he shoots first-time despite there being no pressure on him: obviously this is not the best way to maximise that chance. If he takes another touch (which he can easily do given there's nobody around him) then he's closer to goal, he'd force the keeper to have to try and move and overall the chance would just be better. 

I feel this is why Villa fans get a bit frustrated with him even though looking at his xG he's actually a generally consistent finisher. When he's not on a roll imo he has a tendency to scuff these split-second decisions a bit: where he does everything else right but makes it more difficult for himself by kind of panicking at the final hurdle, especially if he's in a bit of a goal drought.

You can't criticise him for that without pointing out his decision to shoot from there turned the chance into a 0.49 post shot xG and it was a good save. As I pointed out earlier he's had two post shot xG of 0.86 and 0.87 shots saved. There's literally nothing more a player can do than have shots like that. 

Of all the things I've seen this season Watkins isn't worrying me. I'm a little more concerned with Kamara's early performance and our defensive balance due to loss of Mings (and Carlos again)

[thunderball]

Watkins is a decent player, and a CF is not just measured by his goals, but what he contributes to the team. With Watkins in the team only 3 other teams have scored more goals this season - as a team we are doing well scoring goals and he is a part of that success. Yes we would all like him to put away all his chances but I think his off the ball game is very good and helps the team.

Hopefully he gets some goals in the cups against some lesser teams and gets his confidence up, he did score a hat trick against Hibs after all so its not as though he is on a drought or he isnt getting into positions to score because he is. Its fine margins and I am sure his fortune will turn.

I also think he will sign a new contract, but if he doesn't by January I am sure the club will start looking for a summer replacement and he will be sold.

[Pinebro]

Only measuring him by goals is very simplistic.

Ollie brings so much more to the team and Coaches will see that but not fans.

Emery will be delighted with Ollie so far and he will be a long way off being dropped anytime soon.

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

I feel some just don’t rate him so are eager to post about him when he isn’t scoring. I get that but it’s a shame because he is a valuable player for the way he leads the line. 

[cheltenham_villa]

Ollie has always scored in patches, im confident we'll see another. In some ways i see this as a good thing, at the moment the team is scoring so we can afford Ollie to take some time. When the team is struggling is when we will really need Ollies goals.

[TomC]

He's an inconsistent goal-scorer and a consistent do-the-little-things player.

Fortunately, we now have enough other players who score that we can ride out his goal scoring slumps.

When we can attract a Lewandowski or Haaland or Kane, I'll be all for replacing him. Until then, we could do a lot worse.

 

[AVTuco]

When he's cold like now others will have to chip in. And vice versa.

[Made In Aston]

4 hours ago, Pinebro said:

Only measuring him by goals is very simplistic.

Ollie brings so much more to the team and Coaches will see that but not fans.

Emery will be delighted with Ollie so far and he will be a long way off being dropped anytime soon.

 

The case in point is getting rid of Archer, who is nothing more than a goalscorer. The difference is that Watkins enhances the attacking play, even when he isn't scoring. 

[Tom13]

5 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Watkins has proven himself enough for me not to worry about him until he breaks his underlying data from last three seasons

G/90 - xG/90

0.38 - 0.39

0.34 - 0.35

0.43 - 0.47

That's from 9400 mins of PL football. When the season is all said and done his goals track his expected goals. xG is more stable than goals, it's like if I roll a dice 100 times how many times will I roll a 6. There's a 16.66% chance of rolling a 6 each time, but I can easily roll a streak10 times without getting a six. In the end though you'll get 15-18 6s rolled. 

This season his xG/90 is 0.52 and his average xG per shot is 0.17. These are great numbers and shows he's doing everything right and the goals are coming. I am as happy with Ollie now as I've ever been. Probably more happy with him as Emery has improved him

You need to watch his allround performances though. Stats (and goals) aren't everything.