hippo Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, CVByrne said: Yes it could well be that the level of transmission stays high enough to lead to a large number of hospital admissions. We really don't know though and it's too hard to predict. I think as I've said before the London data is what will tell us how the spread unfolds and what hospital pressure is like with this wave. Agreed. (Or we could be guided by the daily mail) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 16 hours ago, Genie said: If it turns out to be much milder then I expect Boris to open everything up and also introduce a “kiss a stranger to help out” scheme to really speed up the herd immunity. Hasn't he be doing that for about 25 years? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, The Fun Factory said: Hasn't he be doing that for about 25 years? Leading by example! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Father to the nation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post El Zen Posted December 23, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, The Fun Factory said: Father to the nation Literally, if given a bit more time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 23, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, CVByrne said: I think as I've said before the London data is what will tell us how the spread unfolds and what hospital pressure is like with this wave. I think the London data will be atypical. London has way higher percentage of unvaccinated people than most other areas. Also a lower age profile, more people tightly packed, more reliance on /use of public transport etc etc. I suspect that it will therefore be more hit than other areas. A separate thing I’m wondering is the severity said to be 40-70% less for omicron. Is that on unvaccinated and previously uninfected people? or is that on a cross section of the population (many of whom will have some protection against severity due to their vaccination and / or previous infection)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, hippo said: Re the news that Omricon appears to have a hospilisation rate 40% lower than Delta. It seems to have been forgotten that it is also 5x more transmissible. Think both elements need to be factored in before we get confident it's nothing. Can we not start thinking a bit more positive on this thread. I can really see why some people have left it. Sane person "Omicron may be very mild symptoms, which is good news". Paranoid VT members "True, but we can't risk anything, if every other scientist in Europe is wrong, we could all die a terrible death and Christmas could be cancelled, lets wait till the facts come or mid 2023, before thinking we can live a normal life"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) Write up in the Economist for the latest studies: Quote That Omicron cases are, on average, less severe is partly due to their being more likely than Delta cases to be reinfections (because of Omicron’s ability to dodge some of the protection conferred by a previous bout). Among people who have acquired no immunity either from infection or vaccination, Omicron’s propensity to lead to hospital admission is only 11% lower than Delta’s, the researchers reckon. Previous infection, however, turns out to cut the risk of hospital admission by 55-70%. By some estimates, about half of people in England have had covid at some point, a substantial layer of protection from severe disease for those who catch Omicron. So Omicron is only 11% milder than Delta among those that could catch Delta (Delta wouldn’t reinfect those who have already had it). However most of the people with Omicron will be “reinfections” and so won’t be at any serious risk, and the high case numbers at the moment are likely to be a mirage. Edited December 23, 2021 by Panto_Villan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted December 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) 23 minutes ago, blandy said: A separate thing I’m wondering is the severity said to be 40-70% less for omicron. Is that on unvaccinated and previously uninfected people? or is that on a cross section of the population (many of whom will have some protection against severity due to their vaccination and / or previous infection)? I have been thinking this. In the last highest wave there were still a LOT of people unvaccinated or just at one shot. If Omicron is 60% lower AND we've currently got 50% + of the population on booster jabs does that mean it's going to be even lower. I'm starting to think that the biggest issue is gong to be maintaining the NHS and other essential public services with SO many people infected and isolating. Hopefully this reduction to 7 days will help with that. Edited December 23, 2021 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 23, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, foreveryoung said: Can we not start thinking a bit more positive on this thread. I can really see why some people have left it. Sane person "Omicron may be very mild symptoms, which is good news". Paranoid VT members "True, but we can't risk anything, if every other scientist in Europe is wrong, we could all die a terrible death and Christmas could be cancelled, lets wait till the facts come or mid 2023, before thinking we can live a normal life"! Up there with some of your best work, you've almost set a new low bar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, blandy said: I think the London data will be atypical. London has way higher percentage of unvaccinated people than most other areas. Also a lower age profile, more people tightly packed, more reliance on /use of public transport etc etc. I suspect that it will therefore be more hit than other areas. A separate thing I’m wondering is the severity said to be 40-70% less for omicron. Is that on unvaccinated and previously uninfected people? or is that on a cross section of the population (many of whom will have some protection against severity due to their vaccination and / or previous infection)? Yes, very much London will be a "worst case" example for the rest of the country as a whole. The low rates of vaccination in the over 80s is very large in London with about 20% of all that age group unvaccinated which is nearly 4x higher than the National average of unvaccinated in that age group. Its very hard to untangle the London data. We had the statem from one of the sage experts saying that half of Londons Covid admissions are people who went to hospital for other reasons and tested positive when routinely tested at admission. So the numbers of people who have gone to hospital because of Covid is much lower than the reported data. The next thing to look at is number of people in hospital with Covid instead of admissions with Covid because it seems hospital stays are much shorter with this wave due to it being milder. Then we have London cases, surely people have exited London now for Christmas so we have less people here Vs last week so a population drop could be the cause of a cases peak or slowdown. So many different factors at play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Write up in the Economist for the latest studies: So Omicron is only 11% milder than Delta among those that could catch Delta (Delta wouldn’t reinfect those who have already had it). However most of the people with Omicron will be “reinfections” and so won’t be at any serious risk, and the high case numbers at the moment are likely to be a mirage. Anecdotally all the people I know who have caught Covid in last two or so weeks have had no symptoms beyond those of a mild cold. All double vaccinated and over half had Covid before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I’m surprised Delta isn’t getting more airtime at the moment. About 5 in 6 of the current record infections are Delta. We’d be in a state of crisis now with Delta alone and it’s driving the thousands going into hospital at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, foreveryoung said: Can we not start thinking a bit more positive on this thread. I can really see why some people have left it. Sane person "Omicron may be very mild symptoms, which is good news". Paranoid VT members "True, but we can't risk anything, if every other scientist in Europe is wrong, we could all die a terrible death and Christmas could be cancelled, lets wait till the facts come or mid 2023, before thinking we can live a normal life"! I don't think positivistity comes into it. The best brains in the world have got this wrong - on all sides. It isn't easy to predict . Theres a whole multitude of factors - The health service will have improved at treating people and people even without lockdown people have cut back on socialising. I come on here to get a cross section of viewpoints. I don't come on here to be proved right or prove others wrong. My opinion right now - Omricon will prove to be less mild - But I think hospital admissions will go up quite significantly. If they don't great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Genie said: I’m surprised Delta isn’t getting more airtime at the moment. About 5 in 6 of the current record infections are Delta. We’d be in a state of crisis now with Delta alone and it’s driving the thousands going into hospital at the moment. Indeed. IMO we started Autumn with much to high baseline. Unscientific but what I seemed to notice was the warmer weather seemed to reduce transmission.Therefore the colder weather may have increased the delta baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted December 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, hippo said: I don't think positivistity comes into it. The best brains in the world have got this wrong - on all sides. It isn't easy to predict . Theres a whole multitude of factors - The health service will have improved at treating people and people even without lockdown people have cut back on socialising. I come on here to get a cross section of viewpoints. I don't come on here to be proved right or prove others wrong. My opinion right now - Omricon will prove to be less mild - But I think hospital admissions will go up quite significantly. If they don't great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Omicron is a great example of people only believing the data that suits their view point. This isn’t about people on here specifically. The data is always tainted, or corrupt, or made up until it says “its really really early but it might be milder than what came before” and people latch onto it and fly it on a huge flag outside their house. It gets repeated over and over. SA say it’s milder, what are we messing about for? I’d bet if SA said it was more severe all kinds of reasons would have been created why they don’t know what they are on about or it’s too early to come to that conclusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted December 23, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Genie said: Omicron is a great example of people only believing the data that suits their view point. This isn’t about people on here specifically. The data is always tainted, or corrupt, or made up until it says “its really really early but it might be milder than what came before” and people latch onto it and fly it on a huge flag outside their house. It gets repeated over and over. SA say it’s milder, what are we messing about for? I’d bet if SA said it was more severe all kinds of reasons would have been created why they don’t know what they are on about or it’s too early to come to that conclusion. When I'm going on holiday, I only settle for the weather forecast that I like the best and if that isn't good enough then it's likely to change because the predictions are useless anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted December 23, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, hippo said: I don't come on here to be proved right … …Omricon will prove to be less mild It’s just as well you’re not here to be proven right (But seriously your approach is spot on) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Genie said: Omicron is a great example of people only believing the data that suits their view point. This isn’t about people on here specifically. The data is always tainted, or corrupt, or made up until it says “its really really early but it might be milder than what came before” and people latch onto it and fly it on a huge flag outside their house. It gets repeated over and over. SA say it’s milder, what are we messing about for? I’d bet if SA said it was more severe all kinds of reasons would have been created why they don’t know what they are on about or it’s too early to come to that conclusion. It could well be milder - that could be correct. That doesn't necessarily mean we might not get an uncontrollable amount of admissions. Despite all the data some of it comes round to predicting human behaviour - I mean come on Lerner appointed Mcleish ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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