Generic Virus Thread

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

The new Conservative slogan.

No you have PR Strategy and Slogan mixed up

[bannedfromHandV]

2 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

*cough* trident *cough*

Bang on, let’s keep ploughing resources into shiny missiles which we’ll never use and even if we had to use them - the world would already be totally screwed.

[chrisp65]

12 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

I'm pretty sure ventilators are a bit more complex than bandages.  The lack of PPE especially is inexcusable even in these circumstances though.

Yes of course they are, it was the principle of forward planning and maybe using existing experts and existing knowledge and existing production lines and existing proven certified products. Rather than waiting a few months for someone to invent a new one.

[chrisp65]

20 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Bang on, let’s keep ploughing resources into shiny missiles which we’ll never use and even if we had to use them - the world would already be totally screwed.

But without Trident, Brexit Britain could find itself beholden to China.

At least with Trident we know we can surrender our financial security, water companies, food production, transport logistics, energy supply, steel industry and manufacturing base, but still be fiercely independent and respected.

I propose that next Wednesday we clap for Trident.

[Mic09]

2 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

This isn’t meant to cause offence to anyone individually who works within the IT arena within the NHS but I’ve spent 13+ years now recruiting for IT and Technology companies and there is a stigma attached to candidates who have a long history of working in IT within the NHS. That stigma being that they’ve probably never really worked under much pressure, nor will have worked with cutting edge technologies - this is often backed up during conversations you might have with those candidates, in my experience.

Then you add in the absurd amount of money they waste on contract staff (typical of government, see also MoD, MoJ, HMRC, DWP etc) who are brought in to work on projects that often get scrapped - this is also why I don’t feel particularly sorry for the IT contract staff in this country when they’re complaining about the proposed IR35 adjustments as in my opinion, they’ve ridden the gravy train for long enough.

Perhaps amongst the inevitable inquest that will follow this period we’ll see a renewed approach in this area.

I also work in IT recruitment and I can totally back this up.

Than again, it's the same with IT specialists who work at other monolith institutions like HSBC. Things are slow, tech is old fashioned, in order to get any decisions you need a sign off from 17 levels of management. You don't need to stay on top of your game and learn new frameworks etc because you have a VERY well paid job with often 30+days holiday and if you were to put your CV on the market you could expect to get 10k less.

Hence, I am always a little hesitant to get into thinking "let's pump more money into NHS" because I see that a lot is already being wasted. It's just too easy of a slogan.

[HanoiVillan]

22 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I am always a little hesitant to get into thinking "let's pump more money into NHS" because I see that a lot is already being wasted. It's just too easy of a slogan.

Health care costs will always rise, because of rising life expectancy and population growth, not to mention inflation. Hence healthcare budgets have to rise, both in their own terms and as a proportion of GDP.

That's before we even get into whether or not a 100% efficient system with no 'waste' would be of benefit or not.

[chrisp65]

One of the first and easiest savings they could make would be to stop using recruitment agencies.

If ever there was a middle man expense that was easily cut...

[OutByEaster?]

What's the legal standpoint on a release from lockdown after testing?

Could we end up with a period when a number of people are allowed full permission to roam, interact, work and live normal lives having already passed antibody testing? Would there be restaurants and bars and shops open for these people? How would we identify them, would they need to carry a card, wear a badge?

Would you then have two other groups of people, one who have been tested and haven't produced antibodies that are considering deliberately getting the virus as their only means to freedom and one that hasn't been tested and that's increasingly frustrated at not being able to join in with the world and would need to be policed to prevent them joining in?

I can't see any way that using antibody testing to restart society in stages works - it seems impossible to me.

 

[PussEKatt]

Over here they are already testing a cure for COVID19 on ferrits,for 2 months, then if all goes well on a select group of humans for 6 months.Apparently it is one of the ingrediants used in the medication for head lice.

The lockdown hasent been to bad here in Perth.We can still go to the beach and the shops as long as we practice "social distancing"  

[HanoiVillan]

Two interesting studies produced this week about the virus, and what they may suggest:

1)

A study by two Americans which looked at people contacting healthcare providers with 'flu-like symptoms' who didn't have the flu, finds that there were many such calls over early March, and that the spread of the virus is almost certainly much wider than official numbers suggest (we already knew this, but it's useful to see it). In addition, studies of Robbio in northern Italy and Gangelt in Germany (which have experienced population-wide testing) reveal that roughly 14% of the population in both towns had antibodies for the virus. Both towns have been at or near epicentres of infection, and numbers are lower in other places (maybe 4-5% in Iceland, which has had widespread testing, and so far 2% in Telluride, Colorado, which is also doing population-wide testing). This is good news, as if infection is roughly 10x higher than official figures suggest, then the fatality rate is 10x lower than it appears (although somewhat less than 10x, as we are undercounting deaths).

However, it is also bad news, as it shows that even towns that have been very hard hit by Covid-19 are massively far away from herd immunity, which may need to be approx 80% infected for such an aggressive virus. Ergo, lockdowns and/or enforced social distancing are likely until the vaccine is produced and widely distributed.

2)

(while the tweet mentions an r0 of 2-3, the results appear to be even stronger with an r0 of approx 5 as might be suggested by point 1)

While it's a little complex, this study shows that the vast majority of transmissions are caused by a very small proportion of cases (somewhere between 80-90% of transmissions coming from 10-20% of cases). This suggests that if we could better understand transmission dynamics, we could potentially re-open certain parts of life with less risk. This may seem to be in opposition to the previous point, but it isn't, because it suggests that any social reopening would have to be very tightly controlled, and would be highly dependent on transmission dynamics. One thing this result would seem to suggest, though, is that worrying about parks is probably an unnecessary distraction.

[DCJonah]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

No Words. not the tweet itself, the tweet it's screenshotted.

 

We're seriously becoming the new **** America. Its an utter embarassment

[Mic09]

28 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

One of the first and easiest savings they could make would be to stop using recruitment agencies.

If ever there was a middle man expense that was easily cut...

I don't recruit for NHS. In order to do that, you would have to be another monolith business such as Reed who are often inefficient and wasteful and charge a massive fee. The circle of waste goes on and massive corporations scratch each others backs.

Plus, 99% of IT businesses struggle with hiring. NHS are the same, they simply can't do it. Not many people can.

Recruitment is no different than getting your mortgage sorted, getting a haircut, going to a restaurant.

You could find a cheapest deal yourself with a mortgage. You could cut your own hair. You could cook your own food.

But people don't, because often they don't know how to or even if they do, someone can do it more efficiently and quicker for them.

[Mic09]

39 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Health care costs will always rise, because of rising life expectancy and population growth, not to mention inflation. Hence healthcare budgets have to rise, both in their own terms and as a proportion of GDP.

That's before we even get into whether or not a 100% efficient system with no 'waste' would be of benefit or not.

I really don't know how the funding stacks up with the factors you have given. 

Do you have a good source that correlates it?

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I really don't know how the funding stacks up with the factors you have given. 

Do you have a good source that correlates it?

Any serious analysis of healthcare spending will take these factors as a starting point. For instance, these are literally the first words of a report from 2015 by The Health Foundation:

'Key points

1. Each year, the English NHS faces additional spending pressures of around 4% in real terms. These are the result of a growing and ageing population, the increasing prevalence of long-term conditions, higher expectations of care and rises in the relative prices of health care inputs (principally of staffing).'

from: https://www.health.org.uk/sites/default/files/FundingOverview_NHSFundingProjections.pdf

[Mic09]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Any serious analysis of healthcare spending will take these factors as a starting point. For instance, these are literally the first words of a report from 2015 by The Health Foundation:

'Key points

1. Each year, the English NHS faces additional spending pressures of around 4% in real terms. These are the result of a growing and ageing population, the increasing prevalence of long-term conditions, higher expectations of care and rises in the relative prices of health care inputs (principally of staffing).'

from: https://www.health.org.uk/sites/default/files/FundingOverview_NHSFundingProjections.pdf

Thanks

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

According to that tweet by Dan Rosenheck, the R0 of this could be as high as 5.7  

[chrisp65]

22 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I don't recruit for NHS. In order to do that, you would have to be another monolith business such as Reed who are often inefficient and wasteful and charge a massive fee. The circle of waste goes on and massive corporations scratch each others backs.

Plus, 99% of IT businesses struggle with hiring. NHS are the same, they simply can't do it. Not many people can.

It wasn’t a pop at you as an individual, I’ve no idea what the detail of your job is.

It was from my own direct personal experience, when I worked in the NHS, in what might be called an admin support role that was heavy on the I.T. / software specialism side.

We had a large department of specialists, but it was deemed politically unacceptable. So the Department was privatised. So most of us left. So they had to use recruitment agencies at a 15% finders fee to bring staff back in. Those staff were then paid by Carillion, who charged what was basically a 12.5% handling fee. I think that particular I.T. Money saving idea cost about £2,000,000 extra over A couple of years. With the added bonus of those with experience left the business, the new recruits didn’t even know there were NHS standards to adhere to and the first hospital that got built by the privatised company had ward doors that were too narrow to get beds through.

Other than that, the whole thing was an absolute triumph of streamlined privatisation and reduced admin..

I’m sure its all a lot more joined up and competitively priced now. 

[bickster]

You know how Chemical Matt said it was 19 NHS staff that has so far died of CV19...

Well Nusing notes says (and Labels all of them on a map) that it's 27

Quote

Memorial of Health & Social Care Workers taken by COVID-19

This is a digital tribute and memorial to the dedicated members of our health and social care family who gave their lives during the fight against Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19).

A total of 27 health and social care workers are known to have died from COVID-19.

Nursing Notes

[OutByEaster?]

11 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

According to that tweet by Dan Rosenheck, the R0 of this could be as high as 5.7  

What's an RO?

 

[HanoiVillan]

8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

What's an RO?

 

The average number of people that one infected person infects.

EDIT: Should probably add to this, that therefore if the R0 = 1, then the disease will be stable, ie it will not disappear but it will not break out. If it is below 1, the disease will gradually die out. If it is more than 1, it will spread unless measures are taken to contain it.

5.7 is quite high for an R0, but not unbelievably so (measles, for instance, has an r0 of 18).

Edited April 11, 2020 by HanoiVillan