Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

Just now, tonyh29 said:

Didn’t @Awol tell us that about 2 years ago ? 

Yes and no. Yes we had military advisors in Ukraine before the invasion iirc (as confirmed by AWOL)but wasn’t the German leak about currently and advising on the use of Storm Shadows which is a much more recent event. Tbh I’m just reading that from headlines so could easily. Be wrong

[LondonLax]

Supposedly the German leak came about from the German airforce discussing internally how they could sell to the German government idea of sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The sticking point is that you either need to spend months and months training Ukrainians on their use or you do what the U.K. has done and send your own specialists to run the targeting operation in the field.

Neither of which is palatable for the Germans apparently. 

[Mic09]

14 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

My argument was actually that they might be exaggerating Russian losses to improve their own morale given they’re steadily losing territory. Noel was the one that brought donors into it.

As for NATO knowing exactly where every Russian plane in the air is at all times, and knowing instantly when they’ve been shot down - I don’t believe that for a second. And even if they did, they’re not going to slap Ukraine down in public for exaggerating their kills.

Every country at war exaggerates their success to some degree, and Ukraine is no  different.

From the start of the conflict I believed a couple of things;

1. All sides will exaggerate. That is a given. It's a war effort both militarily and also on the propaganda front.

2. Russia and US will continue talks behind scenes (which is something Putin confirmed - he doesn't talk with Biden, but agencies will keep contact).

3. NATO (US) know much more than they will tell us. I believe they know where Russian troops/planes are. I also believe the same (maybe less so) of Russians. They most likely knew in what ways Germans/NATO are helping. There are likely numerous agents at the Pentagon, as there are agents at the Kremlin. 

It would not surprise me if any help from the west is based on 100% insight into their campaigns. If we give them weapons and intel, we should expect to know what happens with those weapons. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Of course the German accidental leak may have been intentional.  

Putin said recently that he would go to war with NATO if they sent troops to Ukraine.  A few days later we seemingly have confirmation that its happened.  

Putin has threated war if - 

NATO interfered

NATO allowed its citizens to fight in Ukraine

NATO supplied targeting data

NATO supplied arms

NATO supplied long range artillery 

NATO supplied tanks

NATO supplied planes

Can you spot the pattern?  Wherever Putin draws a red line NATO very visibly jumps over it.  

 

 

Edited March 5 by Mandy Lifeboats
Spelling mistake

[Mandy Lifeboats]

And how could I forget.

Russia's policy on nuclear war is that war is instgated on any country that attacks Russia with nukes OR attacks Russia's nuclear capability. 

The Moskva could carry nuke as could many of the strategic bombers that have been destroyed.

Edited March 5 by Mandy Lifeboats
Speeling mishsteaks

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russia ship in negative buoyancy promotion. 

At one point you see the drone enter the ship's hull through a massive hole in the side.  1:27 - 1:30

 

 

 

Edited March 5 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[magnkarl]

The Russians, believing that Ukraine were out of shells, went back to their massed artillery formations which they previously went away from due to counter battery fire. Now that the EU shells have arrived these massed formations of artillery are essentially a turkey shoot for Ukraine's superior NATO systems. Whereas you'd be lucky to hit one system in 2023, they can now hit 3 or 4 with a fragmentation grenade. Russia showing their usual stupidity.

I'm glad I'm not a Russian artilleryman at the moment.

Edited March 6 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

23 hours ago, blandy said:

That’s a different argument. I feel reasonably confident that the surveillance NATO forces have gives an accurate picture of where stuff is (to abbreviate).  Who is on board which aircraft, or what fate befell them is a completely different story.  Then layer in what is released to the media, who it serves and all that and who might benefit from deception or whatever - that’s beyond my comprehension.

The crew of the plane doesn’t really matter - the key thing was that there weren’t any planes of that size (transport / bomber) shot down in the opening days of the war, at least as far as I’m aware, and I just don’t see how the US could tie themselves in knots with their public statements if they actually knew what had happened.

Maybe things were just too chaotic back then, I don’t know - but either way, it’s a different discussion from Ukraine being willing to exaggerate their kills (which they obviously are).

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

the key thing was that there weren’t any planes of that size (transport / bomber) shot down in the opening days of the war,

2 years later Ukraine has western missile defences. 2 years later they have the benefit of NATO intel. 2 years later Russia is desperate to announce gains. 2 years later Russia is no longer “yeah, we got this” super confident. 2 years later Russia is throwing lives and equipment and aircraft at trying to gain ground. So no, it’s not comparable to a sort of surprise attack intended to grab control of Ukraine in a few days. SitRep, this is 2+ years into an ill conceived invasion, not the opening days of a war.

[Panto_Villan]

7 minutes ago, blandy said:

2 years later Ukraine has western missile defences. 2 years later they have the benefit of NATO intel. 2 years later Russia is desperate to announce gains. 2 years later Russia is no longer “yeah, we got this” super confident. 2 years later Russia is throwing lives and equipment and aircraft at trying to gain ground. So no, it’s not comparable to a sort of surprise attack intended to grab control of Ukraine in a few days. SitRep, this is 2+ years into an ill conceived invasion, not the opening days of a war.

I don’t believe NATO has complete information on every air-to-air kill Ukraine claims to make. NATO was flying AWACS planes everywhere in the early days of the war and apparently they couldn’t tell whether a massive transport plane was shot down or not; ergo they don’t have perfect information.

You seem to be talking about something else entirely so I’m not sure there’s any point continuing this discussion.

[avfc1982am]

Mental if true.

Ukraine war: Seven Indians on holiday issue plea after being forced into Russian army (msn.com)

A distressing plea has emerged from a group of young men from India who claim to have been deceived into military service in Russia's war against Ukraine.

In a video circulated on social media platform X, seven individuals in military-style winter gear plead for assistance from the government, highlighting their dire predicament.......

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

I'm glad I'm not a Russian artilleryman at the moment.

[bickster]

Just now, avfc1982am said:

Mental if true.

Ukraine war: Seven Indians on holiday issue plea after being forced into Russian army (msn.com)

A distressing plea has emerged from a group of young men from India who claim to have been deceived into military service in Russia's war against Ukraine.

In a video circulated on social media platform X, seven individuals in military-style winter gear plead for assistance from the government, highlighting their dire predicament.......

Already stolen the tanks that were sent for repair, now they are conscripting their citizens

Going on holiday to Russia right now is mental enough 

[avfc1982am]

Just now, bickster said:

Already stolen the tanks that were sent for repair, now they are conscripting their citizens

Going on holiday to Russia right now is mental enough 

F****** crazy I'd say. Obviously I say that with a pinch of salt because what are 7 Indian males doing there in the first instance. I doubt Russia the new party capital of Eastern Europe 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, avfc1982am said:

F****** crazy I'd say. Obviously I say that with a pinch of salt because what are 7 Indian males doing there in the first instance. I doubt Russia the new party capital of Eastern Europe 

It's also the most racist country I've ever visited, many years ago at the end of the 80s but I've seen absolutely nothing that would change my opinion

[magnkarl]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

Already stolen the tanks that were sent for repair, now they are conscripting their citizens

Going on holiday to Russia right now is mental enough 

Smells of mercenaries who, when faced with the reality of Russia's mental society and the war's actuality, has had a change of heart. Who goes on holiday to Russia at the moment!?

Either way I expect that Russia will release them and make a big deal about it.

Edited March 6 by magnkarl

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

You seem to be talking about something else entirely so I’m not sure there’s any point continuing this discussion.

Oh. OK. Wasn't trying to do anything other than put across my take. But cool. Have a good one, Panto.

[chrisp65]

If the story is legit, and that’s a sizeable if, then perhaps it’s an illustration of ‘our’ news versus news around the world. We would think it crazy to go to Russia on our holibobs because we see pictures from the frontline and magnakarl’s kill stats. 

But perhaps the news in India isn’t quite so involved and the seven guys aren’t that interested and there are lots of places that aren’t as poorly rated on trip advisor as Kharkiv.

So I guess it’s just as possible some Indians could go to Russia, as some English guys could accidentally go to Colima in Mexico with a murder rate of 2%.

 

 

 

[Mr_Dogg]

52 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If the story is legit, and that’s a sizeable if, then perhaps it’s an illustration of ‘our’ news versus news around the world. We would think it crazy to go to Russia on our holibobs because we see pictures from the frontline and magnakarl’s kill stats. 

But perhaps the news in India isn’t quite so involved and the seven guys aren’t that interested and there are lots of places that aren’t as poorly rated on trip advisor as Kharkiv.

So I guess it’s just as possible some Indians could go to Russia, as some English guys could accidentally go to Colima in Mexico with a murder rate of 2%.

 

 

 

Ya, I don't think it's such a crazy story, Moscow is quite the place  especially if you are somewhat wealthy.