Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

18 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

Saw on the news that Russia are moaning that Ukraine used a French drone to damage that bridge ?! so,what does it matter who made the drone ? Russia is using stuff from one of the arab countries,FFS

It allows Russia to portray their war as being against NATO.  

It would be deeply embarrassing to fail to beat Ukraine after 18 months.  Its heroic to hold back the NATO invasion for 18 months. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

The ruble continues to crash.  

10 years ago there were 50 rubles to £1

1 year ago there were 70 rubles to £1

Yesterday it hit 125 to £1

It's a similar story against almost every world currency not just the major ones. 

That's despite Russia spending a ridiculous amount of their gold and foreign currencies trying to support it. 

I suspect many Russia people are getting ready to flee abroad before the next mobilisation of cannon fodder. 

 

[bickster]

18 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

Saw on the news that Russia are moaning that Ukraine used a French drone to damage that bridge ?! so,what does it matter who made the drone ? Russia is using stuff from one of the arab countries,FFS

It wasn’t a drone and it wasn’t French.

consensus is that appeared to be a British supplied Storm Shadow

The French only started to deliver their version of the Storm Shadow (SCALP?) this week. Storm Shadow and the French version are made by the same manufacturer with the same parts, the Made in France thing is highly likely even in a Storm Shadow.

Apart from that, what Mandy said

[magnkarl]

Ukraine seems to be dialing back the ground offensive, rather focusing on luring Russian artillery to open up on quick moving infantry and then counter barraging them. The disparity of artillery which was once 1-20 in Russia's favour is now reportedly on Ukraine's side in many areas.

Ukraine is likely waiting for F-16s before committing to more costly frontal assaults, and seem perfectly happy to starve out Russians from salients and taking out logistics. It seems more and more likely to me that Ukraine won't commit to more frontal assaults until they can actually utilize combined arms maneuvers with their air force.

Meanwhile Ukrainian drones seem to be hitting their targets deep within Russia, here at the factory that produces sights, camera equipment, lenses, night vision (the little Russia has) etc.

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by magnkarl

[blandy]

Just now, magnkarl said:

Ukraine is likely waiting for F-16s before committing to more costly frontal assaults, and seem perfectly happy to starve out Russians from salients and taking out logistics. It seems more and more likely to me that Ukraine won't commit to more frontal assaults until they can actually utilize combined arms maneuvers with their air force.

I know little about most of this, but it seems like (as with the initial invasion) it's a heck of a lot harder to take land than it is to defend it. So it's one thing for Ukraine to put up a valiant defence of (most of) their territory, but much, much harder to oust a well dug in opponent from territory they're defending. Like you say, without air superiority (either side) any attacking force is likely going to sustain very heavy losses, whether with Western supplied kit, or with soviet kit.

They can obviously bash away at supply lines, depots, HQ locations etc. using stand off weapons like Storm Shadow or Himars and it all weakens the Russian resources, but it doesn't take back ground.

It seems like Ukraine is (rightly) not willing to do what the Russians did with so little regard for their own troops and just hurl bodies at bullets and mines, so there seems like a stalemate - they want to retake their land, but they don't want to kill all their troops in doing so, so they're stuck on the horns of a dilemma. So it's just attritional long range attacks, mostly, from both sides, each trying to wear down the other. We're still where we've been all along - neither side can win.

[Anthony]

9 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The ruble continues to crash.  

10 years ago there were 50 rubles to £1

1 year ago there were 70 rubles to £1

Yesterday it hit 125 to £1

It's a similar story against almost every world currency not just the major ones. 

That's despite Russia spending a ridiculous amount of their gold and foreign currencies trying to support it. 

I suspect many Russia people are getting ready to flee abroad before the next mobilisation of cannon fodder. 

 

Also this is during a period when the pound hasn't been exactly a stellar performer. 

[ender4]

6 hours ago, blandy said:

It seems like Ukraine is (rightly) not willing to do what the Russians did with so little regard for their own troops and just hurl bodies at bullets and mines, so there seems like a stalemate - they want to retake their land, but they don't want to kill all their troops in doing so, so they're stuck on the horns of a dilemma. So it's just attritional long range attacks, mostly, from both sides, each trying to wear down the other. We're still where we've been all along - neither side can win.

and i guess the autumn rains will come soon and then it's an even longer stalemate until next spring?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 hour ago, Anthony said:

Also this is during a period when the pound hasn't been exactly a stellar performer. 

The ruble is crashing against even the obscure currencies I haven't heard of. 

It's lost 33% of its value in one year against the Zambian Kwacha

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[sidcow]

54 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The ruble is crashing against even the obscure currencies I haven't heard of. 

It's lost 33% of its value in one year against the Zambian Kwacha

 

Kwacha talking about? 

[avfc1982am]

4 hours ago, blandy said:

I know little about most of this, but it seems like (as with the initial invasion) it's a heck of a lot harder to take land than it is to defend it. So it's one thing for Ukraine to put up a valiant defence of (most of) their territory, but much, much harder to oust a well dug in opponent from territory they're defending. Like you say, without air superiority (either side) any attacking force is likely going to sustain very heavy losses, whether with Western supplied kit, or with soviet kit.

They can obviously bash away at supply lines, depots, HQ locations etc. using stand off weapons like Storm Shadow or Himars and it all weakens the Russian resources, but it doesn't take back ground.

It seems like Ukraine is (rightly) not willing to do what the Russians did with so little regard for their own troops and just hurl bodies at bullets and mines, so there seems like a stalemate - they want to retake their land, but they don't want to kill all their troops in doing so, so they're stuck on the horns of a dilemma. So it's just attritional long range attacks, mostly, from both sides, each trying to wear down the other. We're still where we've been all along - neither side can win.

I think your right Blandy, good post. I too think we are slowly heading into another winter of sporadic fighting and a general stalemate across the frontlines.

From a Ukrainian POV I think they'll be pretty disappointed in the little ground they've been able to take back in the grand scheme of things this summer. Personally, I fail to see how they expected to take back any large chunks of land without heavy loses or air superiority anyway, which they have never had. The only way this could happen is if Russia withdrew from occupied territory, which they wont now most of their defensive lines are pretty stable. Russians will keep digging in now and Ukraine will continue going nowhere fast unless something drastic happens. 

At this moment I just don't see any way Ukraine can recover all their land without another few years of this and thousands more loses, they just don't have the manpower or logistical strength to overcome Russia. Do they really have the appetite for potentially another decade of war, I'm not so sure tbh. 

 

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, ender4 said:

and i guess the autumn rains will come soon and then it's an even longer stalemate until next spring?

Yep.. Russia can then reinforce defensive positions further. 

[LondonLax]

We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

The Ukrainian’s are getting the upper hand on artillery in some sectors. They dominate in counter battery fire and Russia have been losing large numbers of artillery pieces for weeks now.

It is only going to need a breakthrough in one sector to force a large rout, and there have been reports that Russia is not backfilling sectors with new units as quickly as it was a few weeks ago. 

However for the moment it seems like the Russians are holding territory or at least failing back slowly enough to fortify the next fallback position. 

If Ukraine can’t make a breakthrough before winter it will be a stalemate for another year. 
 

 

[sidcow]

14 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

The Ukrainian’s are getting the upper hand on artillery in some sectors. They dominate in counter battery fire and Russia have been losing large numbers of artillery pieces for weeks now.

It is only going to need a breakthrough in one sector to force a large rout, and there have been reports that Russia is not backfilling sectors with new units as quickly as it was a few weeks ago. 

However for the moment it seems like the Russians are holding territory or at least failing back slowly enough to fortify the next fallback position. 

If Ukraine can’t make a breakthrough before winter it will be a stalemate for another year. 
 

 

Yes, surely the best plan is to breakthrough, outflank and then starve them out/wait till they run out of ammo. 

By all accounts moral is very low, I don't think the Ruskies will hold out long. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russia defence spending will soon account for 33% of its total spending. 

That compares with NATO countries who tend to spend 2.5%.  

But NATO countries are much wealthier.  For instance,  Russia and Texas are roughly equal in economic terms.  

A stalemate suits NATO.   Russia cannot maintain "war" spending. 

The Russian economy will never recover whilst it occupies Crimea.  Crimea will come back to Ukraine but not as quickly as hoped. 

 

[brommy]

10 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Ukraine seems to be dialing back the ground offensive, rather focusing on luring Russian artillery to open up on quick moving infantry and then counter barraging them. The disparity of artillery which was once 1-20 in Russia's favour is now reportedly on Ukraine's side in many areas.

Ukraine is likely waiting for F-16s before committing to more costly frontal assaults, and seem perfectly happy to starve out Russians from salients and taking out logistics. It seems more and more likely to me that Ukraine won't commit to more frontal assaults until they can actually utilize combined arms maneuvers with their air force.

Meanwhile Ukrainian drones seem to be hitting their targets deep within Russia, here at the factory that produces sights, camera equipment, lenses, night vision (the little Russia has) etc.

 

Russian media are apparently saying that part of the factory was being leased to a pyrotechnics company that had a malfunction causing the explosion. Chinny reckon!

[magnkarl]

32 minutes ago, brommy said:

Russian media are apparently saying that part of the factory was being leased to a pyrotechnics company that had a malfunction causing the explosion. Chinny reckon!

Yes so much so that there’s artillery shells in the debris several miles from the factory, along with optics usually having nitrogen inside lenses etc it makes for a bad place to be smoking.

[Jareth]

It's stalemate isn't it? Perhaps the idea was to get Ukraine fully bolstered militarily and if they retook their ground then great - but otherwise they now have the equipment they need to hold what they have. Russia won't get another chance to pull this crap again and will be poorer in the long term. Can't see any other outcome.

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

It's stalemate isn't it? Perhaps the idea was to get Ukraine fully bolstered militarily and if they retook their ground then great - but otherwise they now have the equipment they need to hold what they have. Russia won't get another chance to pull this crap again and will be poorer in the long term. Can't see any other outcome.

How will they be poorer in the long term? They’ll have more land, more coast, more ports.

Do you imagine that ‘the West’ will keep up a full trading embargo against them 50 years after hostilities cease? 10 years after? I would bet that it would be months after any sort of semi official ‘stalemate’ agreement that we would start offering banking and insurance services.

If they gain land, they won. If they won, there’s incentive to do it again. It’s that simple.

Our aim has always been to draw this out, to hope for death by a thousand cuts regime change in Russia. Except we like the strategy of the long game, but lack the concentration span for that sort of long term thinking (Iraq, Afghanistan). There is a scenario where Trump becomes President, U.S. aid all but stops. Trump makes some unilateral declaration of peace and resolution like he did for the Palestinians. Europe decides, well ok, we’ll have to do this as europe not NATO. Then it all gets a bit expensive and we decide stirring speeches will be of more benefit than actual weaponry. It’s playbook stuff.

I mentioned very early on that it suited ‘us’ to drag this thing out, supplying just enough, just in time, to keep this unwon by either side. That’s clearly still our intention. Let’s see in 12 months if its still within our economic desire to keep on keeping on.

[bickster]

38 minutes ago, Jareth said:

It's stalemate isn't it? Perhaps the idea was to get Ukraine fully bolstered militarily and if they retook their ground then great - but otherwise they now have the equipment they need to hold what they have. Russia won't get another chance to pull this crap again and will be poorer in the long term. Can't see any other outcome.

We've actually seen very little if any of the modern(ish) NATO ground attack equipment in battle yet. Ukraine haven't committed this into battle yet, they appear to be just probing away and biding their time to preserve lives on their side. You won't see it until a front collapses completely.

I do think as someone else posted that Ukraine may well be awaiting the F16s unless a front completely unravels.

[LondonLax]

 

1 hour ago, bickster said:

We've actually seen very little if any of the modern(ish) NATO ground attack equipment in battle yet. Ukraine haven't committed this into battle yet, they appear to be just probing away and biding their time to preserve lives on their side. You won't see it until a front collapses completely.

I do think as someone else posted that Ukraine may well be awaiting the F16s unless a front completely unravels.

I still think they are waiting to receive a good deal of equipment. The Abrams tanks for example will not arrive in Ukraine until Autumn.