Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[blandy]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/19/us-indicates-will-not-block-european-countries-export-f-16-jets-ukraine

Quote

US indicates it will not block European countries exporting F-16s to Ukraine

Shift in stance could allow countries such as the Netherlands to send US-designed fighter jets to Ukraine

 

[ender4]

On 18/05/2023 at 05:56, LondonLax said:

Though if you look at the graph their revenue for energy is in line with historical norms whilst non oil export revenue is way up. It seems the 2022 glut was an outlier. 

Where are they getting all their non-energy revenue from?  Impressive that it's still growing year on year even through a war.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

Where are they getting all their non-energy revenue from?  Impressive that it's still growing year on year even through a war.

That it continues to rise despite being massively affected by sanctions during wartime for the last two years tells you everything. There's no way that's happening 

[wishywashy]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/19/us-indicates-will-not-block-european-countries-export-f-16-jets-ukraine

Big stance change...

[sidcow]

I don't think there is appetite in the USA to drag this out much longer so they probably want it finished as soon as possible. If this helps that's probably why. 

[PussEKatt]

There is one other thing as well.Ukraine do not have an infinite number of soldiers/pilots etc,so this war needs to end before Ukraine runs out of manpower,something the Russians have an abundance of ( and they dont mind throwing lives away )

[Buffs]

Reading the following BBC article it feels like it’s going to be really difficult for the UA to mount their counteroffensive.  To the more informed on here, how are they going to get past these fortifications, especially given they have no air superiority?

Quote

Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault

A beach resort bristling with fortifications. A major road lined with anti-tank ditches. Satellite analysis by BBC Verify has uncovered some of the extensive defences built by Russia as it prepares for a major Ukrainian counter-attack.

After months of stalemate, the expected assault is likely to be a crucial test for Ukraine as it seeks to prove it can achieve significant battlefield gains with the weapons it has received from the West.

By examining hundreds of satellite images, the BBC has identified some key points in the significant build-up of trenches and other fortifications in southern Ukraine since October.

These four locations offer an insight into what Russia expects from the counter-offensive, and what defences Ukrainian forces might encounter.

I’m assuming NATO are helping the UA plan their counteroffensive, but it really does feel like it’s going to be very difficult.  Will they focus on one area and go big or try and spread across multiple areas?  Surely the Russians will see them coming with huge numbers of kit/troops moving forward?

It feels like they have to move soon or they will never regain that ground lost as the Russians will simply keep fortifying.  
 

 

[pas5898]

Looks like something interesting might be happening in Belgorod. Might be false flag or rebels. 

Appears to be tanks crossing + fighting

 

[bickster]

16 minutes ago, Buffs said:

Reading the following BBC article it feels like it’s going to be really difficult for the UA to mount their counteroffensive.  To the more informed on here, how are they going to get past these fortifications, especially given they have no air superiority?

I’m assuming NATO are helping the UA plan their counteroffensive, but it really does feel like it’s going to be very difficult.  Will they focus on one area and go big or try and spread across multiple areas?  Surely the Russians will see them coming with huge numbers of kit/troops moving forward?

It feels like they have to move soon or they will never regain that ground lost as the Russians will simply keep fortifying.  
 

 

Well with regards to the fortifications on the beach in Crimea... Ukraine have zero amphibious assault vehicles, let alone enough to attempt a D-Day style landing. The only reason these are here is a coping mechanism for Russians in Crimea, a total waste of concrete

The dragons teeth are about as much use as a chocolate Tea Pot, plenty of images of older former Soviet tanks just crushing them by driving over them already, they aren't very well made

The artillery at the rear of those positions will not be there when the offensive comes, Ukraine will have used HIMARS or similar to take them out of the game. With the Artillery out of the way the Anti-Tank trench becomes fillable or crossable

Most of those defences in front of the trenches

[Genie]

Is the suggestion that “anti-Putin” troops are rolling into Russian towns? 

 

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

Well with regards to the fortifications on the beach in Crimea... Ukraine have zero amphibious assault vehicles, let alone enough to attempt a D-Day style landing. The only reason these are here is a coping mechanism for Russians in Crimea, a total waste of concrete

The dragons teeth are about as much use as a chocolate Tea Pot, plenty of images of older former Soviet tanks just crushing them by driving over them already, they aren't very well made

The artillery at the rear of those positions will not be there when the offensive comes, Ukraine will have used HIMARS or similar to take them out of the game. With the Artillery out of the way the Anti-Tank trench becomes fillable or crossable

Most of those defences in front of the trenches

I read the article on the BBC with the trenches and dragons teeth and did think that it seems a lot of effort for almost no gain.

You’d only need to move a couple of Dragons teeth aside to get through. Similar for the trenches. One truck load of soil and you’ve got a section to drive a tank over.

The kind of tactics that belong in the early 1900’s.

Edit: actually with the trenches you could simple drop a shell on it and blow it into a nice bowl that could be driven in and out of.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Genie

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

One truck load of soil and you’ve got a section to drive a tank over.

They didn't even take away the soil they dug out, the original soil is still there

[sidcow]

Every army has tanks modified to carry portable bridges that can bridge fairly big rivers. I'm sure trenches will prove no obstacle. 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

Every army has tanks modified to carry portable bridges that can bridge fairly big rivers. I'm sure trenches will prove no obstacle. 

That whole system of defence there relies on the artillery at the rear to make the dragons teeth / trenches difficult to pass. The artillery at the rear will be taken out in advance of the advance. WW1 tactics don't really make much sense in the world of HIMARs and Storm Shadows etc

[ml1dch]

32 minutes ago, pas5898 said:

Looks like something interesting might be happening in Belgorod. Might be false flag or rebels. 

Appears to be tanks crossing + fighting

 

Take with a pinch of salt, obviously:

 

[Anthony]

To add, what they will do is slow down any advance. What's supposed to happen is that the defender then has time to bring in three and fourpence and/or attack the advance with artirelly and the air power. 

Often the Ruzzian defenders, quite reasonably, run when they're attacked, so there goes your point defenders. If what Bicks suggests does indeed happen then without point defenders or artirelly, all this construction will have been pointless. 

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Take with a pinch of salt, obviously:

Wow, thats some ballsy move if true.

The Legion Of Russia is only about 2 battalions strong, I think the Belarussians also have three battalions, maybe they are going too?

It seems like a suicide mission unless they are going over as Russians to avoid Ukraine invading Russia and to take out logistics ahead of the counter-offensive.

Thinking about it that is most likely

Counteroffensive must be close

[Anthony]

22 minutes ago, bickster said:

Counteroffensive must be close

Destroying militarily important objectives is a bonus. 

1. Morale busting: gone is your relaxing R&R away from the front line. 
2. Increased paranoia, whether based in reality or not, takes up resources that could be used to help the war effort. More guards in the rear equals fewer troops at the front. 
3. Perception in the general populace. What? You mean it's actually feasible and viable to fight against the regime without getting immediately arrested? Could become a big headache for Putin. 

[bickster]

 

[pas5898]

40 minutes ago, bickster said:

Wow, thats some ballsy move if true.

The Legion Of Russia is only about 2 battalions strong, I think the Belarussians also have three battalions, maybe they are going too?

Wonder if they might have some new American made shiny weapons just to further destabilise the area and create a headache for Russia.