Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[villa89]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

I think there will be many instances whereby huge amounts of Russian resources are being wasted on something quite pointless. I wonder if in many instances the waste of resources is done on purpose. "Sorry we cannot come to the frontline, we're too busy doing other essential special operation stuff". Like making sand castles?

You'd imagine any experienced solider and ground commander would be making sure they are stationed miles away from the killing block. They would know this war is a lost cause and would be just trying to get home in 1 piece. 

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, villa89 said:

You'd imagine any experienced solider and ground commander would be making sure they are stationed miles away from the killing block. They would know this war is a lost cause and would be just trying to get home in 1 piece. 

100%. It may have started off as an adventure to rob and kill for some, but I bet the horror stories are definitely having an affect on soldiers and commanders 12 months on with many looking for all sorts of reasons and excuses not to go. Any half sane individual would come straight into that category. 

They ain't fighting for appliances anymore, but yards of dirt and rubble now. 

[avfc1982am]

Soo..... Wagner have stalled the last 3 days in Bakhmut with no gains at all. If there is the possibility of a counter attack against a weakened Wagner that would be a massive.  

 

[avfc1982am]

 

[magnkarl]

17 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

From this I'm judging that UAF are still very confident in their artillery and defensive positions around the town. People on the ground are now saying that for every 1 UA soldier lost Russia lose at least 5-7.

[PussEKatt]

There is one thing that no one has mentioned yet.Ukraine does not have an unlimited supply of soldiers/males,so if Russia continue as they are it will not matter how many weapons they recieve or how lethal they are,Ukraine will not have the manpower to use them.

[Genie]

16 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

There is one thing that no one has mentioned yet.Ukraine does not have an unlimited supply of soldiers/males,so if Russia continue as they are it will not matter how many weapons they recieve or how lethal they are,Ukraine will not have the manpower to use them.

Russia don’t have unlimited resources either.

Ukraine are being backed by NATO, Russia are going cap in hand to places like North Korea. 

I know who my money is on to run out of weapons first. 

[PussEKatt]

Im not talking about running out of weapons,im talking about running out of men.Im sure Russia have twice as many men as Ukraine.

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

Im not talking about running out of weapons,im talking about running out of men.Im sure Russia have twice as many men as Ukraine.

It isn't as clear cut as that. Russia has three times the population as Ukraine but Ukraine only has 3.5% of Russia's land mass. The Russian landmass needs far more people to make it work as a country than Ukraine does. Ukraine also hasn't quite suffered the brain drain that Russia has. SOmewhere between 1 and half a million men of conscript age has just buggered off out of Russia in the last year, and Russia was already suffering a working age intellectual deficit as thanks for it educating its people highly.

All sorts of other factors also come into play but just comparing population sizes really isn't the answer to the question.

[sidcow]

52 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

Im not talking about running out of weapons,im talking about running out of men.Im sure Russia have twice as many men as Ukraine.

Remember this?

[avfc1982am]

Russia is also massively skewing their losses in manpower. I saw a report yesterday that up to 50K Russian are MIA, that not the number in captivity but those that haven't been heard from in over 2 months. The difference between MIA and KIA isn't death in Russia. It's a payout. Apparently many Russians are being told family members are MIA when they're dead as dodos. 

[avfc1982am]

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

From this I'm judging that UAF are still very confident in their artillery and defensive positions around the town. People on the ground are now saying that for every 1 UA soldier lost Russia lose at least 5-7.

If certain reports are true the Ukraine are reinforcing Bakhmut from Kharkiv and Slovyansk. That means Wagner are serious exposed on their northern flank and may become surrounded themselves if they're not careful. Either way it sounds more positive than for weeks so I'm trying to be optimistic.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

it would appear the younger generations are pretty clued up, the older ones, not so much

[avfc1982am]

27 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

it would appear the younger generations are pretty clued up, the older ones, not so much

They are. These is also mostly sensible compared to most the vids he puts out and many of the opinions received. But yeah, the younger generation are generally those most opposed to war. They've still got another 30-40 years of indoctrination to go though and I'm sure Russia will have turned them by then. 

[LondonLax]

The US is now claiming it was Ukrainians who blew up Nord Stream, which certainly makes far more sense than the far fetched idea that Russia crippled their own infrastructure. 

It seems pretty unlikely that the job was solely a private operation though. 

Quote

WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

[tinker]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

They are. These is also mostly sensible compared to most the vids he puts out and many of the opinions received. But yeah, the younger generation are generally those most opposed to war. They've still got another 30-40 years of indoctrination to go though and I'm sure Russia will have turned them by then. 

My guess is most of them will have been arrested for appearing in this video. 

[pas5898]

19 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

Im not talking about running out of weapons,im talking about running out of men.Im sure Russia have twice as many men as Ukraine.

There's a huge difference. Ukraine has half it's population who will willingly / voluntarily risk their lives to save their country on top of a well equipped military.

With Russia, after the professional military and conscripted prisoners there's not many normal civilians who fancy getting thrown into the meat grinder.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 hours ago, pas5898 said:

There's a huge difference. Ukraine has half it's population who will willingly / voluntarily risk their lives to save their country on top of a well equipped military.

With Russia, after the professional military and conscripted prisoners there's not many normal civilians who fancy getting thrown into the meat grinder.

I would hope that better training,  equipment, tactics and hardware make up some of this gap.  

Currently the Russians need a win of any sort so they keep coming.  Their death rate currently that we know of is mind blowing. 

The below is just what I hope will happen I suppose but the good news is the sanctions are hurting Russia bad and there seems to be a worker shortage in some industries / Areas.

The further they move the longer the logistics so they stretch these as they move.  I don't know what's going to happen but I hope it's Ukraine with a big push through the lines with a few 100 vehicles and infantry.  It can't be long away. 

The towns the Russians are theoretically getting hold of have been costly,  maybe too costly in the big scheme of things.

The sanctions are hurting them bad and they will start running out of certain types of Ammo / Hardware at a certain point.  If the West get a few Combined Arms Battalions on the go with  with the new Western MBT's later when the ground is better things will immediately change.

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Euromaidan 2.0 going down in Tbilisi

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

7 hours ago, pas5898 said:

With Russia, after the professional military and conscripted prisoners there's not many normal civilians who fancy getting thrown into the meat grinder.

It's also almost totally dependent to where they live,  as a percentage of the mobilized soldiers, the total from St Petersburg and Moscow is almost Zero at the moment.  This is for political reasons.

The men in these cities I suggest are protected so they get them from far away at the moment.  As we know some towns are now almost without men from a certain age.

Putin won't run out of people but a large part of the countries population are not useable IMO.  He cannot under any circumstances end up in a Tiananmen Square situation where population control is not complete and total.