Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

What happened the the ~12,000 Ukrainian troops that were encircled?

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

11 hours ago, bickster said:

Rumours spreading quite wildly that Kadyrov has kidney failure

I was really hoping for a Pancreatic type thing for him,  this will have to do.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

By using different tech in their drones electronic warfare systems in Russia has a very hard time jamming all frequencies, meaning that it's much more likely that they'll hit targets. Compared to Russia's Iran drones who all operate on very few frequencies and are easily shot down or hijacked the UA drones seems to have been wildly effective.

Geek time (again). I’m not sure where that explanation came from, but it’s not quite right. The drones (I hate that term) will almost certainly not have “electronic warfare” systems, but they will have systems which they rely on to get to their targets, for example command and control and data links which connect the ground operators with the air vehicle and stuff like GPS which tells the aircraft where it is.

At the start of all this, your basic drones would have used frequencies available from the spectrum which are assigned for general purposes (my term, because otherwise too geeky). They would be using off the shelf radio links in the UHF and/or S bands, with low RF power. Everyone knows these frequencies are used for what they are and they are easily jammed. GPS is also quite easy to locally jam. Again the exact frequencies are known and the drones will have been using GPS L1. So all in all, not that great in terms of resistance to jamming.

But, the UA, perhaps with assistance from outside, have moved things on. Instead of commercial GPS chips and hobby radio chips, if you change to, say, military anti jam GPS tech or have a back up I.N. and use frequency hopping radio links in a different part of the spectrum, or to dual band, or to multiple links (e.g. say a S band link, plus a satcom link, plus a UHF link) then you can make your aircraft and UAS more resistant to countermeasures.  Starlink is the obvious example of things being adapted.

Russia can’t really do that, or not so easily. Because sanctions.

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Geek time (again). I’m not sure where that explanation came from, but it’s not quite right. The drones (I hate that term) will almost certainly not have “electronic warfare” systems, but they will have systems which they rely on to get to their targets, for example command and control and data links which connect the ground operators with the air vehicle and stuff like GPS which tells the aircraft where it is.

At the start of all this, your basic drones would have used frequencies available from the spectrum which are assigned for general purposes (my term, because otherwise too geeky). They would be using off the shelf radio links in the UHF and/or S bands, with low RF power. Everyone knows these frequencies are used for what they are and they are easily jammed. GPS is also quite easy to locally jam. Again the exact frequencies are known and the drones will have been using GPS L1. So all in all, not that great in terms of resistance to jamming.

But, the UA, perhaps with assistance from outside, have moved things on. Instead of commercial GPS chips and hobby radio chips, if you change to, say, military anti jam GPS tech or have a back up I.N. and use frequency hopping radio links in a different part of the spectrum, or to dual band, or to multiple links (e.g. say a S band link, plus a satcom link, plus a UHF link) then you can make your aircraft and UAS more resistant to countermeasures.  Starlink is the obvious example of things being adapted.

Russia can’t really do that, or not so easily. Because sanctions.

Sorry if I miswrote, I didn't mean to write that the drones have EW systems onboard, I meant that Russia has EW systems to try to combat the drones and that this is made hard due to UA moving the drone industry at a pace which is unbelievable.

[magnkarl]

Russia has apparently staged a fake attack in Bryansk that they claim 'ua saboteurs' are conducting. Thing is, Russia and the world are so used to Russia doing this thing that no one is having it.

I guess it's for the internal audience.

Edit; the group is claiming that they're Russian resistance, but they've got Russian army gear all over and they're using yellow tape which Ukraine stopped using over half a year ago. Not buying it.

Edited March 2, 2023 by magnkarl

[astondalston]

Looks more likely it’s a genuine sabotage mission to distract/confuse.

 

[pas5898]

I really appreciate this thread fellas. I have close ties to Lithuania and my wife has cousins in Kyiv. 

Getting reliable information off Twitter, Reddit is really difficult to decipher whereas with this thread I have a pretty good idea of what's going on.

Thanks all. 

[magnkarl]

27 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Russia has apparently staged a fake attack in Bryansk that they claim 'ua saboteurs' are conducting. Thing is, Russia and the world are so used to Russia doing this thing that no one is having it.

I guess it's for the internal audience.

Edit; the group is claiming that they're Russian resistance, but they've got Russian army gear all over and they're using yellow tape which Ukraine stopped using over half a year ago. Not buying it.

Edit again, it appears that it might actually be the Freedom of Russia legion, they're saying it is on telegram. If so, and I'm still doubtful, the conflict has officially turned into an insurgency in Russia too.

Podolyak's comment is "Russia should be vary of its own partisans"..

Local authorities in Russia say nothing of the sort is happening.

Confusing to say the least. The flag they're holding is that of the Russian Liberation Army which assisted the nazis during WW2, and not an ounce better than Russia's current regime. Smells of Putin trying to frame nazis, "look Ukraine are working with Russian nazis now!". The uniforms look too pristine, the tape is far too obvious and the guys in the video look like actors..

Putin has called off the security council meeting he was due to have, I guess he figured that everyone found out that it was as bad as that time when the GRU signed that letter from a supposed Ukrainian nazi with "Insert signature" or whatever.

Edited March 2, 2023 by magnkarl

[villa89]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Putin has called off the security council meeting 

How is he still able to call them would be the better question.

[avfc1982am]

I found this short report pretty interesting. 4 jets 150 personnel. 

 

[ender4]

25 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I found this short report pretty interesting. 4 jets 150 personnel. 

 

That guy in Estonia (@1:45) who thinks NATO are the facists taking over their airspace 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

5 hours ago, Genie said:

What happened the the ~12,000 Ukrainian troops that were encircled?

I think you are referring to Bakhmut which is almost encircled but not quite.  

Ukraine has 12,000 troops in that area forming 3 lines of defence.  Those troops rotate between all 3 lines. It would take an amazing assault to break all 3 lines and encircle 12,000 troops.

Ukraine has been losing ground very slowly and I get the feeling that Bakhmut will soon become untenable and Ukraine will withdraw. 

Russia will claim a massive victory.  But the land to the west is very hilly and perfect for defence.  Ukraine will have their pride dented.  But defensively most people agree that they should have withdrawn by now.  They are taking heavy loses. The only consolation is that Russia is taking even heavier loses. 

[avfc1982am]

18 minutes ago, ender4 said:

That guy in Estonia (@1:45) who thinks NATO are the facists taking over their airspace 

Unfortunately, there is a lot of this garbage coming from Russians elsewhere. Funny thing is there is an article floating about on how the Russians are the most well educated population globally. Canada 2nd, followed by Japan, the US with the UK in 6th. I didn't bother reading because it was undoubtedly bollocks.   

[LondonLax]

6 hours ago, magnkarl said:

UAs tactics are formidable, simply put. They're playing chess while Russia plays WW1 reenactment human wave formations.

The trouble is the human wave attacks are actually pretty hard to stop in places like Bahkmut where there is decent cover. 

Ukraine doesn’t have the ammunition and rate of fire to stop the attacks and will lose more ground. 

We in the west measure defeat in the number of lives lost but the Russian regime doesn’t consider that a defeat. It’s a victory for them if the land is captured. 

[blandy]

43 minutes ago, ender4 said:

That guy in Estonia (@1:45) who thinks NATO are the facists taking over their airspace 

Since NATO forces deployed there Russia has mounted an information offensive on social media etc. planting stories (false ones) about behaviour and so on. People fall for that stuff.

[stuart_75]

26 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Unfortunately, there is a lot of this garbage coming from Russians elsewhere. Funny thing is there is an article floating about on how the Russians are the most well educated population globally. Canada 2nd, followed by Japan, the US with the UK in 6th. I didn't bother reading because it was undoubtedly bollocks.   

As high as 6th you say?

[avfc1982am]

I think what really concerns me about the situation around Bakhmut in general is Ukrainians are dying on their swords in large numbers now instead of being smart, retreating in good order and living to fight another day. If the mentality of the commanders is hold at all costs then the costs will end up being to high for Ukraine to maintain elsewhere. It's all very well having the better tech, trained forces but if they're being misused to hold something which is depleting them as much as the Russians then it becomes fruitless and negligent. 

 

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, stuart_75 said:

As high as 6th you say?

Yep...the dizzy heights. 

[Genie]

27 minutes ago, blandy said:

Since NATO forces deployed there Russia has mounted an information offensive on social media etc. planting stories (false ones) about behaviour and so on. People fall for that stuff.

One of the things we’ve learned from the last few years is that “we” need to be much better at spotting and deleting this industrial scale misinformation which countries like Russia pump into social media.

[sidcow]

22 minutes ago, stuart_75 said:

As high as 6th you say?

Does Russian propaganda know no bounds?