Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Follyfoot]

3 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I think I have a timeline,  it will all be done before the 5th in Putin's head.
Only becasue their stock market is off until then in Russia.  They will turn it on when the drop of 40% will be reduced as the violence should have stopped as Ukraine will be surrounded.
They will count on a cease fire of sorts to fix the stocks / currency.

The currency is shot to ****.  Trading at >100 to 1 dollar.  That's almost worthless.

Interest rates at 20% but the money is flowing out the banks as fast as they put it in.

Normal Russians wont feel it yet but they will.  Putin will think a cease fire on the 3rd or 4th March will sort the money side out.  This will not work.  He may be able to occupy a neighbor short term,  if he tries long term he and the Russian economy is finished as it is currently.  With no access to their assets abroad and with Gas / Oil sales now viewed as dirty money,  all the doors are going to shut.  They literally have nothing the world wants anymore.  Europe can't continue to buy oil/gas from them anyway,  they are an unreliable partner who can easily be classed as a terrorist organization as oppose to a country.  Basic company / country governance should prohibit the purchase of goods from Russia now anyway.  Just pretend the pipelines have been blown up and the move to other sources is to be completed as soon as possible anyway.  If this goes on for 1 year plus the lights might actually go off in Moscow.

Negotiate but give them nothing, maybe Crimea is the only thing to give (He has it already)

 

 

How about a return to good old communism to sort out the domestic Russian issues

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I think I have a timeline,  it will all be done before the 5th in Putin's head.
Only becasue their stock market is off until then in Russia.  They will turn it on when the drop of 40% will be reduced as the violence should have stopped as Ukraine will be surrounded.
They will count on a cease fire of sorts to fix the stocks / currency.

The currency is shot to ****.  Trading at >100 to 1 dollar.  That's almost worthless.

Interest rates at 20% but the money is flowing out the banks as fast as they put it in.

Normal Russians wont feel it yet but they will.  Putin will think a cease fire on the 3rd or 4th March will sort the money side out.  This will not work.  He may be able to occupy a neighbor short term,  if he tries long term he and the Russian economy is finished as it is currently.  With no access to their assets abroad and with Gas / Oil sales now viewed as dirty money,  all the doors are going to shut.  They literally have nothing the world wants anymore.  Europe can't continue to buy oil/gas from them anyway,  they are an unreliable partner who can easily be classed as a terrorist organization as oppose to a country.  Basic company / country governance should prohibit the purchase of goods from Russia now anyway.  Just pretend the pipelines have been blown up and the move to other sources is to be completed as soon as possible anyway.  If this goes on for 1 year plus the lights might actually go off in Moscow.

Negotiate but give them nothing, maybe Crimea is the only thing to give (He has it already)

 

 

Short term the West of Ukraine near Hungary, Slovakia and Poland needs to be massively strengthened in anti aircraft. We need to make sure that the Ukranians can defend themselves there and make this an extremely costly war for Putin. People have said 10 days, I think at 10 days Russia will need to fold or get out. Putin won't have cells left to put people in.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

good old communism to sort out the domestic Russian issues

Even the Russians are not conditioned for it anymore.

In 2022,  communism will always fail.  The world is too connected now,  news flows no matter what they do.

Truth > communism

[magnkarl]

FIS (The international skiing committee) has decided to let the Russians compete in Norway this week. The Norwegians have said they don't want a Russian army captain (Bosjunov) to compete along with any of his Belarussian or Russian colleagues, so now it appears that FIS is the only sport body in the world that won't see reason. The local club in Norway hosting the event has said they are going to pull the plug if Russia is allowed to compete. 

It's sad when it's a small Norwegian cross country club that needs to make the decision for FIS, and it's sad for FIS that they seem even worse than FIFA.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

5 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Short term the West of Ukraine near Hungary, Slovakia and Poland needs to be massively strengthened in anti aircraft. We need to make sure that the Ukranians can defend themselves there and make this an extremely costly war for Putin. People have said 10 days, I think at 10 days Russia will need to fold or get out. Putin won't have cells left to put people in.

I wouldn't worry about Nato / Europe.  The US has spent over half a century creating weapons and defensive weapons for this exact eventually,  with almost unlimited funds and research.

Ukraine will lose in the next few days but Putin cannot win now.  

[sne]

2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

FIS (The international skiing committee) has decided to let the Russians compete in Norway this week. The Norwegians have said they don't want a Russian army captain (Bosjunov) to compete along with any of his Belarussian or Russian colleagues, so now it appears that FIS is the only sport body in the world that won't see reason. The local club in Norway hosting the event has said they are going to pull the plug if Russia is allowed to compete. 

It's sad when it's a small Norwegian cross country club that needs to make the decision for FIS, and it's sad for FIS that they seem even worse than FIFA.

All male Norwegian national team skiers coming down with Covid at the same time this week. 

Belarus has pulled out of the competitions apparently. 

[osmark86]

3 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

The energy part of your post is spot on. I just had similar letter from BG, a extra £1000+ to my bill. I actually have no idea how they are expecting people in this country to live. Everythings going up except wages

and the interest rates. but think that is about to change as well.

[OutByEaster?]

1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

Even if russia takes over ukraine who the hell is rebuiding the country after this? The russians wont be able to afford it after all these sanctions. 

An interesting question with a probably predictable answer.

When we do a war nowadays, what we tend to do afterwards is insist that the country we've ruined borrows money from our banks in order to repair itself. This gives us ongoing control of that country through its economy and ownership of its debt - once we have the debt we can insist they play the game of global commerce in accordance with our rules. 

What we also do is insist that when we lend them the money that the contracts for the rebuilding of the nation are spread evenly between companies and corporations that we pick out for them - these are usually the ones that have spent most money lobbying the US government and media to start the war in the first place.

It's win-win - huge profit for big lobbying arms companies as the war happens, big profit for big lobbying (and usually connected) services companies while the war happens, big profit for the banks and control of more of the global economy and big profit for the big lobbying companies stepping in and rebuilding from the mess.

Now in this case, the Russian's aren't going to be able to do that - they don't have the banking for it - it might well be that their oligarchs are hoping to get a big slice of this pie, but I suspect it's now off the menu. If Russia does end up in a position where they have a long term secure control of Ukraine, then maybe the AIIB provides the money and some sort of Abramovich company provides the concrete and steel - that's possible I guess - but both the control and the recovery seem very unlikely.

What I suspect is more likely is that there's a 40 mile convoy of US lobbyists and bankers lying in wait to turn a quick profit once Putin's efforts come to nought - they'll be supported by the full might of western democracy in the knowledge that they'll be buying long term secure control of Ukraine through its economy. 

Putin will be very aware that if he does fail to secure a complete and long lasting control of Ukraine, all of the damage he's causing to the country will turn into debt owned by his enemies and that'll be making him feel like shit right now; which is good.

 

[OutByEaster?]

This convoy thing is weird.

Why would you leave forty miles of armed ordnance out in the open, in a known position, for twenty four hours?

It was 17 miles from Kyiv yesterday morning.

Is it still there? If not has it moved on Kyiv? If it has, why hasn't that been reported - there will be 3,000+ vehicles in that column if they're in a city surely someone would have noticed ? If it has moved then where has it gone? If it hasn't then what is it doing? Surely it's vulnerable? Is it a diplomatic tool at the moment rather than a military one? Is there difficulty with supply to the column causing it to be bogged down? Are they trying to get out of Villa Park on matchday?

I demand answers!

 

[choffer]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

Is there difficulty with supply to the column causing it to be bogged down?

Probably all out of petrol 

[sne]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

This convoy thing is weird.

Why would you leave forty miles of armed ordnance out in the open, in a known position, for twenty four hours?

It was 17 miles from Kyiv yesterday morning.

Is it still there? If not has it moved on Kyiv? If it has, why hasn't that been reported - there will be 3,000+ vehicles in that column if they're in a city surely someone would have noticed ? If it has moved then where has it gone? If it hasn't then what is it doing? Surely it's vulnerable? Is it a diplomatic tool at the moment rather than a military one? Is there difficulty with supply to the column causing it to be bogged down? Are they trying to get out of Villa Park on matchday?

I demand answers!

 

Maybe the Kiev road toll system is not working?

Trying to cripple the Russian attack by racking up the congestion charge cost.

[Mister_a]

32 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

How about a return to good old communism to sort out the domestic Russian issues

 

[Follyfoot]

3 minutes ago, Mister_a said:

 

Sorted then 

[LondonLax]

6 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

This convoy thing is weird.

Why would you leave forty miles of armed ordnance out in the open, in a known position, for twenty four hours?

It was 17 miles from Kyiv yesterday morning.

Is it still there? If not has it moved on Kyiv? If it has, why hasn't that been reported - there will be 3,000+ vehicles in that column if they're in a city surely someone would have noticed ? If it has moved then where has it gone? If it hasn't then what is it doing? Surely it's vulnerable? Is it a diplomatic tool at the moment rather than a military one? Is there difficulty with supply to the column causing it to be bogged down? Are they trying to get out of Villa Park on matchday?

I demand answers!

 

A 40 mile convoy is essentially a 40 mile traffic jam. It will take time to coordinate that many vehicles to advance. While it's sitting there though the Russian air force will be defending the skys from drone or other air attack. 

[sne]

Norwegian paper VG reporting the Belarusian military has entered Ukraine.

[sne]

[OutByEaster?]

2 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

A 40 mile convoy is essentially a 40 mile traffic jam. It will take time to coordinate that many vehicles to advance. While it's sitting there though the Russian air force will be defending the skys from drone or other air attack. 

But we're also reporting that Russia doesn't have a clear control of the skies over Ukraine at this point. 

Something about the convoy doesn't add up.

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

But we're also reporting that Russia doesn't have a clear control of the skies over Ukraine at this point. 

Something about the convoy doesn't add up.

Hey, stick with the programme. Ukraine is handing Russia its arse cling filmed to a plate, it finishes on day 10.

You may also enjoy: ‘we are doing everything we can on accepting Ukrainians in to the country / close relatives may enter the country / your mum does not count as a close relative.’

 

[avfc1982am]

8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

This convoy thing is weird.

Why would you leave forty miles of armed ordnance out in the open, in a known position, for twenty four hours?

It was 17 miles from Kyiv yesterday morning.

Is it still there? If not has it moved on Kyiv? If it has, why hasn't that been reported - there will be 3,000+ vehicles in that column if they're in a city surely someone would have noticed ? If it has moved then where has it gone? If it hasn't then what is it doing? Surely it's vulnerable? Is it a diplomatic tool at the moment rather than a military one? Is there difficulty with supply to the column causing it to be bogged down? Are they trying to get out of Villa Park on matchday?

I demand answers!

 

It's a deterrent imo. I don't think Russia will try to take Kyiv. They will however stop reinforcements from getting to Kharkiv and any of the northern and south eastern cities. I can see them surrounding Kyiv into submission whilst they watch the fall of a huge part of the country. Putin wont leave until he has land between Russia and the west. 

Putin loves playing these games.  

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

I made this.