tonyh29 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 i agree with Pete , don't see May going early for an election .... amongst other things Corbyn isn't going anywhere so she'll want to secure 5 more years in 2020 rather than seeing him off in 2017 and facing someone competent next time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted November 16, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: i agree with Pete , don't see May going early for an election .... amongst other things Corbyn isn't going anywhere so she'll want to secure 5 more years in 2020 rather than seeing him off in 2017 and facing someone competent next time out Competence has very little to do with election results nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Competence has very little to do with election results nowadays. Level of competence depends on whether you are a sore loser or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted November 16, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: Level of competence depends on whether you are a sore loser or not That's true, but it's not the point I was making - it's not that Trump is competent or not, it's that it's no longer a defining feature of a winning campaign - politics has moved on. The things that are happening in the way elections are being conducted makes a Corbyn victory possible, purely on the likelihood that things are more random - a young science is being perfected in the PR houses of our world - there's a move to 'feel', not fact - a move encouraged by politicians who don't have any use for facts and power that doesn't have a great deal of use for politicians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 16, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted November 16, 2016 40 minutes ago, Awol said: Any opposition party that refuses an explicit shot at the title is commiting long term suicide, imo I think Labour's already committed metaphorical suicide, (twice) unfortunately. Whatever anyone's political views, the system we have needs a strong opposition to stop whoever the Gov't is from, well, doing the sort of crap that the tories are currently doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Opened a bottle of Prosecco this evening, to toast Boris Johnson, a man who is to diplomacy as cholera is to a school kitchen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, peterms said: Opened a bottle of Prosecco this evening, to toast Boris Johnson, a man who is to diplomacy as cholera is to a school kitchen. I think the bigger question is why the Italian minister felt the need to make a private conversation that took place in September public now , why it's like they have a referendum coming up or something and need a distraction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 9 hours ago, tonyh29 said: I think the bigger question is why the Italian minister felt the need to make a private conversation that took place in September public now , why it's like they have a referendum coming up or something and need a distraction He has explained his frustration with the UK government and with Johnson: Quote “Somebody needs to tell us something, and it needs to be something that makes sense,” he told Bloomberg. “You can’t say that it’s sensible to say we want access to the single market but no free circulation of people. It’s obvious that doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.” Calenda, a former Italian envoy to Brussels, said: “There’s lots of chaos and we don’t understand what the position is. It’s all becoming an internal UK debate, which is not OK. The British government needs to sit down, put its cards on the table and negotiate.” I expect if there had been a more sensible and open approach, he would not have gone into the detail of the conversation. I think the bigger question is why we have a bumbling oaf as Foreign Secretary, and why he is being allowed to sour relations with countries with which we are trying to reach an accommodation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 17, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 17, 2016 Explaining his frustration is all well and good but I don't think that explains the timing which was the point Tony was making. If so frustrated why wait two months to air that? I think it's fair to consider his agenda for doing so and to therefore question the validity of his version of events. I'm also not sure that frustration is justification for putting private conversations into the public domain. Where would politics or internal relations or diplomacy be if all took that approach? You seem to be saying leaking private conversations is okay if you don't deem what the other person is saying is sensible. As for the wider point on Boris, I agree he shouldn't be in the role. We are though negotiating rather than seeking an accommodation, there are going to be opposing views expressed, let's hope not everyone feels justified to leak conversations every time they hear something they don't want to hear or they need to further their own agenda. I'm not even sure what Boris said is all that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The EU wants the best deal for them and the worst deal for us to deter other potential leavers in the group. They are (mistakenly imo) viewing Brexit as a zero sum game. It didn't have to be like that but for now at least that's their approach. It makes sense therefore to use any point of pressure available to try and tease out details of the UK negotiating strategy and our bottom lines up front, in order to weaken our negotiating position and set the minimum we will accept as the maximum they will agree to. They understand that it's easiest to burrow into and undermine the UK position along the seams that exist in the UK body politic, which are the divisions of responsibility between the various departments dealing with Brexit. Johnson is seen as a prime target, both for his apparent incompetence (which I'm not judging one way or the other) and the animosity the opposition parties (and some in his own party) feel towards him for leading the Leave campaign. The 'get Boris' phenomenon will continue at home and abroad for some time, with the goal of pushing him out of office, to both weaken the government position and undermine the Brexit process. These negotiations will be a full contact sport, but at least the EU is clearly pinning its colours to the mast well in advance. Game on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Awol said: It makes sense therefore to use any point of pressure available to try and tease out details of the UK negotiating strategy and our bottom lines up front, in order to weaken our negotiating position and set the minimum we will accept as the maximum they will agree to. What massive secrets are there about the UK economy? They already know our negotiating position because it's abundantly plain that we will ask for some sort of special arrangement regarding market access and free movement. Any other possibility would be prohibitively unpopular. The relevant data about the UK economy is available via Eurostat, or whatever. All May is attempting to do is hide the inherent weakness of our position by a load of crap analogies to poker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 17, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 hours ago, Awol said: The EU wants the best deal for them and the worst deal for us to deter other potential leavers in the group. They are (mistakenly imo) viewing Brexit as a zero sum game. It didn't have to be like that but for now at least that's their approach. It makes sense therefore to use any point of pressure available to try and tease out details of the UK negotiating strategy and our bottom lines up front, in order to weaken our negotiating position and set the minimum we will accept as the maximum they will agree to. They understand that it's easiest to burrow into and undermine the UK position along the seams that exist in the UK body politic, which are the divisions of responsibility between the various departments dealing with Brexit. Johnson is seen as a prime target, both for his apparent incompetence (which I'm not judging one way or the other) and the animosity the opposition parties (and some in his own party) feel towards him for leading the Leave campaign. The 'get Boris' phenomenon will continue at home and abroad for some time, with the goal of pushing him out of office, to both weaken the government position and undermine the Brexit process. These negotiations will be a full contact sport, but at least the EU is clearly pinning its colours to the mast well in advance. Game on. I broadly agree, but there are a few differences - I don't think "they" is the right term. There are different opinions on the continent. "They" are not speaking with one united voice on all aspects of the thing. The priorities for France lie around not wanting to give Le Pen a sniff, so "punishment" is in their view essential. Germany has a different view ,Spain another and so on. Where they are all currently agreed is on the Freedom of movement/Trade thing. The boiled down argument for their approach on that is bonkers - essentially being "if we give the UK free trade and immigration control then everyone will want it" which is basically recognising that "the EU" is preventing something everybody wants from happening. The thing with Johnson I view totally differently. The objection to "leaking" is spurious IMO. Speaking to the media about the broad tenet of meetings is normal. Johnson is a bell end, and it's no surprise that people get hacked off with his bell endery. I don't think it's positioning prior to negotiations, it's just frustration at inconsistent signals and different UK people saying different stuff (because the UK hasn't got a scooby what it wants). 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: All May is attempting to do is hide the inherent weakness of our position by a load of crap analogies to poker. She's trying to avoid what happened to Cameron with his jollies round the EU pre referendum. Let out any detail and the press and the nutters start slagging it off, skewing the presentation of things out of her control. Niggling away obsessively to undermine anything without enough raw meat in it. The analogies about cards and stuff is utter rubbish, I agree. It's nothing to do with negotiating hands and everything to do with the right wing media and fruitcakes like Redwood and Tebbit and that posh speccy clearing in the woods whose name I forget. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 38 minutes ago, blandy said: The thing with Johnson I view totally differently. The objection to "leaking" is spurious IMO. Speaking to the media about the broad tenet of meetings is normal It wasn't an objection , it was as Trent followed up on , the timing I found interesting ,why 2 months later ? ... Although the Italian referendum isn't directly linked to the EU , depending on who wins the re-percussions for the EU appear to be huge . What better way than to take a leaf from Yes Minister and replace sausages with Prosecco and get everyone forgetting the real agenda It's like all our sceptics have suddenly stopped being sceptical .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 17, 2016 Author Moderator Share Posted November 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: It wasn't an objection Trent seemed to be objecting. Replacing sausages with prosecco sounds brilliant, until you consider the sausage and egg butty. It would go all soggy. Pah, fancy foreign muck! Gimme a pizza any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tonyh29 Posted November 17, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted November 17, 2016 13 minutes ago, blandy said: Trent seemed to be objecting. Replacing sausages with prosecco sounds brilliant, until you consider the sausage and egg butty. It would go all soggy. Pah, fancy foreign muck! Gimme a pizza any day. reminds me ...... I had one of them Hawaiian pizzas the other day , but somehow I burnt it In the oven , think I should have cooked it on aloha setting 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: reminds me ...... I had one of them Hawaiian pizzas the other day , but somehow I burnt it In the oven , think I should have cooked it on aloha setting The joke thread from 5 days ago wants its joke back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: The joke thread from 5 days ago wants its joke back bugger but my delivery was better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Seems Farage may have misused funds during the Brexit campaign ....could actually see the end of UKIP as they might have to pay it back and lose future funding ..coupled with the lose of donors of late I wonder if they can still survive ? on a lighter side , is it just me that finds it amusing that he appears to have used EU money to fund his leave the EU campaign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 17, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: on a lighter side , is it just me that finds it amusing that he appears to have used EU money to fund his leave the EU campaign On a similar theme I find the fact he will be drawing an EU pension pretty amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 7 hours ago, Awol said: The EU wants the best deal for them and the worst deal for us to deter other potential leavers in the group. They are (mistakenly imo) viewing Brexit as a zero sum game. It didn't have to be like that but for now at least that's their approach. It makes sense therefore to use any point of pressure available to try and tease out details of the UK negotiating strategy and our bottom lines up front, in order to weaken our negotiating position and set the minimum we will accept as the maximum they will agree to. They understand that it's easiest to burrow into and undermine the UK position along the seams that exist in the UK body politic, which are the divisions of responsibility between the various departments dealing with Brexit. Johnson is seen as a prime target, both for his apparent incompetence (which I'm not judging one way or the other) and the animosity the opposition parties (and some in his own party) feel towards him for leading the Leave campaign. The 'get Boris' phenomenon will continue at home and abroad for some time, with the goal of pushing him out of office, to both weaken the government position and undermine the Brexit process. These negotiations will be a full contact sport, but at least the EU is clearly pinning its colours to the mast well in advance. Game on. Exactly. The E.U. would be nothing short of moronic to not have their starting position as is currently being portrayed, especially given they have the Swiss & Norwegian models to trivially fall back on without any loss of face. May and her merry band of Britishers on the other hand are painting themselves into a very strange strategic place. It might result in a good deal for the UK (Swiss etc. models are sort of good to go), but their political careers won't get to see it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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