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The Randy Lerner thread


CI

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Was just listening to a song and it reminded me of our chairman, Green Day - American Idiot, Randy thats how far you fallen is some supporters minds, isn't there a saying that goes you reap what you sow, well Randy hope you enjoy relegation...

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I'd be interested to see what Sunderland's, Stoke's, Newcastle's and even Spur's wage bill is as a percentage of income. I'm not saying that anybody will fall as hard as we have over the last 2 years, the manager situation has compounded that, but other clubs will have to adress the way they operate, and if we've already sorted our house out we may, repeat may, be in a position to benefit.

Of course it could be that Lerner just doesn't want to spend any money, but it would be nice if the majority on this thread at least acknowledge an alternative argument.

You're miles off target. Spurs and Newcastle are both well run clubs. Spurs make a profit, which will only increase if they qualify for the Champions League. Their wage bill is an entirely manageable 55% of turnover. Same with Newcastle, they've sorted themselves out, and have done it at the same time as having a really good season and improving the team. They made a tiny loss, and their wage bill is 60% of turnover.

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Risso,

Where are you getting your figures from? I know spurs generate a higher income than we do, but there over all wages bill wasn't far off ours a couple of seasons ago. Would expect the % to be lower but not sure I'd have said as low as 55%.

Similarly with Newcastle, there income is not as high as Spurs and they've made a few signings which granted wont be on proper big money but must all be around the £30k a week, and if they're not already they'll need to be with the interest the players are getting from the bigger clubs.

Just interested to know where you fihures came from?

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Villas is 88% or something very similar, I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but it is 80 something %

I know the 80% figure was going around when MON left but we have lost a few players since then.

I dont remeber hearing anything else about it to see if we are in a better position

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Similarly with Newcastle, there income is not as high as Spurs and they've made a few signings which granted wont be on proper big money but must all be around the £30k a week, and if they're not already they'll need to be with the interest the players are getting from the bigger clubs.

quote]

Ahem.... really?

With most of the £35m from Carroll still in the clubs coffers and 50k half naked pissed up Goerdies in the ground every game they're doing very nicely thank you very much.

Every Toon fan wears that god awful barcode at games (well ok, has it with them at least, in case the temperature dips beloew -10) Equally, the revenue streams exploited by Newcastle are very clever.... Ashley is a seriously good businessman. He might be hated, but he knows his shit and used relegation to slim down their operation.

IMO Villa's problem is lack lack of support. Even in the Championship Newcastle were filling their ground. We can't and don't fill ours ever. Even under MON a sell out was not a regular occurance. I know Newcastle is a one horse town but they show a bit of loyalty to the club that is sadly lacking with us. This comparison also negates the economic arguements... you can't tell me that the job situation in Brum is worse than that in Newcastle.

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Risso,

Where are you getting your figures from? I know spurs generate a higher income than we do, but there over all wages bill wasn't far off ours a couple of seasons ago. Would expect the % to be lower but not sure I'd have said as low as 55%.

Similarly with Newcastle, there income is not as high as Spurs and they've made a few signings which granted wont be on proper big money but must all be around the £30k a week, and if they're not already they'll need to be with the interest the players are getting from the bigger clubs.

Just interested to know where you fihures came from?

The company accounts.

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Just interested, question for the legal types on here: would there be any way of sacking AMC without paying him off?

Short of locking him in the safe with Ferguson's letter and pretending he had run away.

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I'm not a 'legal type' but my guess would be that the only way to sack someone without paying them off is if they failed to satisfy a quantifiable condition set out within the contract, where the explicit consequence of which was termination with no financial compensation. That's short of catching him with his pants down, figuratively or literally. Something tells me McLeish wouldn't sign up to something of that nature if he knew there was going to be serious financial belt-tightening to be done this season. It would be tantamount to signing yourself out of the job.

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Krulak used to say that lerner got the experts advice, got the best to do his bidding and listened to them. Well the only people at the club that have decent football knowledge Lerner is ignoring, he is not taking their advice at all . They are the fans. We are the only ones involved with Villa currently who have an ounce of decent football knowledge and we are being treated like idiots. Not only that but we are the lifeblood of the club, the customer base and we are being ignored royally by people who think they know better but obviously do not

Lerner knows FA about football or running a sports franchise, but he should know about a commercial operation. So Lerner imagine Villa as a product, when there is no market for your product what happens to your business? Currently the market for product Villa is dwindling and soon there will be limited market for it.

Change the product or lose the business

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The issue here is a disconnect between what we consider to be underperforming and what the owner considers to be underperforming.

Inthe Chelsea case the owner and the fans were celarly on the same page, it's very clear what's expected and the funds are in place o ensure that is possible.

At Villa we tend be reluctant to accept that due to financial contraints we have fallen behind other clubs we were regulary finishing above previously. There is a much larger grey area around what is wanted and what is the minimum that is sustainable. Whilst i honestly belive the board thought we should (and I agree) be higher up the table, I dont think they're prepared to sack the guy for finishing 15th. I also think they will have remembered us being around the drop zone for a while last season until a strong finish had us up to 9th. I'm not saying that will def happen again but I think the owner would be reluctant to sack McLeish at this point given our position of relative safety.

Where we finish on the last day of the season may or may not give Lerner a tough decision to make, and I think if we're any closer to the drop zone he may look to replace the manager, but a lot of that will depend on what has been said between the 2 behind closed doors and what managers might be available to us if we were to sack McLeish.

That is an excellent post.
I think it is excellent too but as an excellent example of the kind of passive acceptance that Lerner is getting. The kind that was never afforded to Ellis.

I contributed to the Ellis out cause in words and deeds for a number of years because I thought it was right, I still think it was right to remove him from the club. But this kind of excuse was never given to him.

IMO the club is in a worse state now than then. Ellis may never achieved much success, Lerner looks like he will be looking enviously at the club record under Ellis but that is a different story, but we never had the losses / debt that we have now under Lerner. Losses / debt that do not come with the promised success. He had a limited budget and we are now suffering for that with bad decisions as well.

I will not excuse Lerner, as some do in my opinion, because he is not Ellis. That, to me, seems to be his only saving grace and I would hate to think that the support he gets from a dwindling section of the fan base is purely because that section also campiagned for the removal of Ellis but are too proud to say his replacement is worse, to say Lerner is a bad owner does not remove the justificatiom for years of anti Ellis campaigns.

We would never have excused the managerial decisions taken by Lerner if Ellis had taken them, and certainly not in the way described by the initial post here.

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Krulak used to say that lerner got the experts advice, got the best to do his bidding and listened to them. Well the only people at the club that have decent football knowledge Lerner is ignoring, he is not taking their advice at all . They are the fans. We are the only ones involved with Villa currently who have an ounce of decent football knowledge and we are being treated like idiots. Not only that but we are the lifeblood of the club, the customer base and we are being ignored royally by people who think they know better but obviously do not

Lerner knows FA about football or running a sports franchise, but he should know about a commercial operation. So Lerner imagine Villa as a product, when there is no market for your product what happens to your business? Currently the market for product Villa is dwindling and soon there will be limited market for it.

Change the product or lose the business

I have to ask, when you say that we know more about football than anyone in this club, do you mean anyone as in Randy, Faulkner and the general, or do you mean literally anyone?

When it comes to listening to fans I generally say it would be a mistake. First of all we can't unite on anything so which fans should he listen too? But when he hired AML he really should have. That was the exception to the rule. When so many fans are against a manager from the start it won't be good.

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Krulak used to say that lerner got the experts advice, got the best to do his bidding and listened to them. Well the only people at the club that have decent football knowledge Lerner is ignoring, he is not taking their advice at all . They are the fans. We are the only ones involved with Villa currently who have an ounce of decent football knowledge and we are being treated like idiots. Not only that but we are the lifeblood of the club, the customer base and we are being ignored royally by people who think they know better but obviously do not

Lerner knows FA about football or running a sports franchise, but he should know about a commercial operation. So Lerner imagine Villa as a product, when there is no market for your product what happens to your business? Currently the market for product Villa is dwindling and soon there will be limited market for it.

Change the product or lose the business

I have every faith that Lerner knows exactly what he's doing with AVFC from a business perspective. I would be pretty sure that unlike most of us fans he's not that bothered about where we finish in the league this season or next season, rather where we will be in five years, ten years, and fifteen years from now. That's the difference in his perspective as a business owner, guarding his asset long term, and our perspective as fans, wanting success for the club at all times. Like any large investment the short/medium term is pretty much negligible for him. He's looking at the long term. I'm sure his team will have drawn up contingency plans for all manner of likelyhoods that make take place in the PL over the next five - ten years. It's what they are paid huge amounts of money to do.

I'm also sure that Lerner and his advisors, will have had contingency plans for relegation factored in from day one of their original five year plan, and likewise will have expected the goal posts to change with regard to CL qualification and the likes of Man City distorting things. They will simply adjust their long term goals for the club accordingly.

I'm sure that Lerner and his gang will know the implications of falling attendances on the club's revenue, as is well aware of the reasons for the falling attendances. He knows that it will take two or three years of spending to get the team and likewise the attendances back toward the top of the table (in his view of things that would be more or less overnight). For all we know he might be planning this for the 2017-18 season. Villa is his asset, and as such he will be planning how to maximise it at all times even if it takes 20 years to do it.

Also, I would be sure that Randy has access to all the capitol he would ever need to run the club. His divorce, global economic downturn etc will have had minimal impact on his access to money, despite what the press would have us think.

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How far into the long term was Randy looking when he allowed wages to spiral out of control to 80+% of our revenue? How far into the future was he looking when he appointed a manager with a history of heart problems or one who was unlikely to be accepted by a huge proportion of the fan base with a negative impact upon our revenue?

I'm sorry but I think you way off the mark.

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How far into the long term was Randy looking when he allowed wages to spiral out of control to 80+% of our revenue? How far into the future was he looking when he appointed a manager with a history of heart problems or one who was unlikely to be accepted by a huge proportion of the fan base with a negative impact upon our revenue?

I'm sorry but I think you way off the mark.

How many Toon fans would level similar criticisms at Ashley prior to this season?

I'm still clinging onto some feint hope that this is all part of Randy's masterplan.

I also lick buses.

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Krulak used to say that lerner got the experts advice, got the best to do his bidding and listened to them. Well the only people at the club that have decent football knowledge Lerner is ignoring, he is not taking their advice at all . They are the fans. We are the only ones involved with Villa currently who have an ounce of decent football knowledge and we are being treated like idiots. Not only that but we are the lifeblood of the club, the customer base and we are being ignored royally by people who think they know better but obviously do not

Lerner knows FA about football or running a sports franchise, but he should know about a commercial operation. So Lerner imagine Villa as a product, when there is no market for your product what happens to your business? Currently the market for product Villa is dwindling and soon there will be limited market for it.

Change the product or lose the business

I have to ask, when you say that we know more about football than anyone in this club, do you mean anyone as in Randy, Faulkner and the general, or do you mean literally anyone?

The ones that count, ie the ones making the decisions and I include in that Lerner, Faulkner, anyone at board level and Mcleish
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How far into the long term was Randy looking when he allowed wages to spiral out of control to 80+% of our revenue? How far into the future was he looking when he appointed a manager with a history of heart problems or one who was unlikely to be accepted by a huge proportion of the fan base with a negative impact upon our revenue?

I'm sorry but I think you way off the mark.

The point I was making is that that amount of spending on both fees and wages for that amount of time has minimal impact on Lerner's overall picture. To him it was a risk worth taking. He's even said he has no regrets over any of O'Neill's signings.

Do you really think he's going to make such a high profile investment (regardless of value), and run it as haphazardly as everyone on here thinks he's doing? Do you think people are unwilling to do business with Lerner's other companies because of his supposed incompetency in the handling of Villa's finances or recruitment policy?

Lerner and his pals have grown up in big business. He doesn't see the running of club the way the fans do, and as he's clearly demonstrated he doesn't care for the fans' opinions on how to run the club. He will do it like he does his other businesses (successful and unsuccessful).

The appointment of managers is a slightly different issue, but needless to say he's making decisions based on the recommendations of a recruitment agency (certainly in Houllier's case, pretty sure in McLeish's). But again McLeish's stint will be negligible in the overall picture IMHO. It's probably why he'll be here for the next season at least.

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and still does, as much as I do not want him anywhere near the running of the club and was vehemently opposed ( and still am ) to his ownership.

I can tell you for a fact how gutted he is at the current state of the team.

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