Relegation

[LondonLax]

After watching QPR and Reading yesterday its impossible to see how Newcastle could concede against QPR.

Yep, I watched that game too. The QPR players didn't give a toss and were laughing and joking with each other at the end. They are on the beach already. Newcastle will turn them over with ease.

We need to do better than Wigan in these last 4 games. I think it will be a straight fight on the last day between us.

[VillaCas]

 

 

 

Positives and negatives for me and it still leaves me unsure of what the future can hold under Lambert. I really hoped that by this point I'd be well convinced that Lambert would be the right man for us.

 

That's a fair enough assessment I think - I'm a bit more positive on him than you are I suspect and for me there are two reasons for persisting - firstly, we need to build some sort of stability and I certainly don't think he's harmful in the same way as the previous manager, and secondly for McLeish, my feeling is that the first half of his season wasn't bad and the second half got worse whereas for Lambert, it feels like we've improved in the second half of the season - in my head, that forms a big curve with the current end pointing upwards - it might not actually be true, I haven't checked whether it stacks up in terms of the stats, but it's how it seems to me.

 

It'd be a lot easier to have faith in having the right man if we had another three or four points though - these are fine margins and I suspect they're gong to be very important.

 

 

 

Here to help - You're spot on with your assessment

 

PS this chart is a big hit with some of our friends here especially Morpheus and BJ10 - hard to argue with the facts though isn't it.

 

Hmmm. This just shows that you can play around with graphs to present a distorted view of the real world. The reality is that, match for match, Lambert has achieved roughly the same level of performance as McLeish. The way that graph is presented blatantly and crudely seeks to present a different impression and is technically questionable because the averaging for this season is split into two parts to overaggerate periods of "progress" under Lambert.

 

It doesn't present the "facts", it portrays them in a particular spin. Different presentations would show a different story.

 

 

In what way is this misrepresenting the facts? I haven't excluded any games? I've shown the average form over two seasons? Whichever way you look at it we got worse under McL and we are getting better under Lambert. What "different presentation" did you have in mind that would produce a different story? The current form tables tell exactly the same story.

 

The reason we are where we are is the we have languished for too long below the 1 point line (relegation form)

 

McLeish clearly got worse and worse throughtout the season - no one with any sense can dispute that

 

Lambert started where McLeish left off but over 10 or 15 games our form improved. We were awful over Christmas but then in 2013 our form has been slowly improving. If you take a league table from the start of the year we would be comfortably mid-table (10th I think) - exactly the same "story" the chart shows.

 

If your problem is spliting the season into two the below chart treats it as one and still shows an improvement, however the story of this season is clear -  slow improvement, wheels come off and then decent improvement again. Just the facts whichever way you look at it

 

[briny_ear]

 

After watching QPR and Reading yesterday its impossible to see how Newcastle could concede against QPR.

Yep, I watched that game too. The QPR players didn't give a toss and were laughing and joking with each other at the end. They are on the beach already. Newcastle will turn them over with ease.

We need to do better than Wigan in these last 4 games. I think it will be a straight fight on the last day between us.

 

That's basically how I see it. There's an outside chance that a higher placed club will have a catastrophic last few games and will slip into the bottom 3 but that's of no concern to us. As long as we do better than Wigan we stay up, even if they do as well. So that should be our main measure of progress (if "progress" is the right word here!)

[PussEKatt]

After 1 full season under Lambert it comes down to having to beat Wigan on the last to stay up  then we have not improved over last season by more than 1%

[dudevillaisnice]

If we do stay up (a big if of course even at this stage of this season which is ridiculous but that's for another day)

 

What happens next season? same position again? We finished 16th last season.. we are still around that with couple of games left.

 

Are we now trying to avoid relegation each season?

[BOF]

Well my take is that these players would not struggle again next season. They were kids this season. The ability is there but the experience wasn't. We've seen them improve both subjectively and objectively over the course of the season and a few careful additions would see us easily midtable. Especially if you consider just how close it all is below 7th over the course of a season. I know not everyone agrees with me but ho hum, that's my view.

[Big_John_10]

PS this chart is a big hit with some of our friends here especially Morpheus and BJ10 - hard to argue with the facts though isn't it.

I noticed this chart that you loved posting and used to argue your improvement by picking a select time seemed to disappear after the Chelsea game.

I don't think anyone has disagreed that we've improved recently.

However in terms of a whole season we still average the exact amount of points a game and are sitting in around the same league position.

The improvements in wins and goals scored are balanced out by losing more and conceding more.

[Big_John_10]

Well my take is that these players would not struggle again next season. They were kids this season. The ability is there but the experience wasn't. We've seen them improve both subjectively and objectively over the course of the season and a few careful additions would see us easily midtable. Especially if you consider just how close it all is below 7th over the course of a season. I know not everyone agrees with me but ho hum, that's my view.

I think the experience will help some of our players a lot.

But for me I just can't see this defence somehow clicking next year.

It needs improvement, either with new players or the manager organising better.

[Ponky]

Or form since that disastrous new year period has been pretty much mid table form. That's pretty encouraging for next season in my view.

[darrenm]

Keep Benteke, invest in a couple of quality additions and keep the recent upturn going then I'd be very confident about next season. It's just the invest bit, I thought this would happen in January.

[Zatman]

 

 

Wigan - Spurs. Told you so :-/ Could've been worse but could've been better. Now to take care of bi'ness.

 

Wigans point at weekend doesnt really make a difference to the grand scheme of things.  3 points would have.

 

I just said I could see Wigan getting something from the game and then being told by many that they wouldn't. Never ignore the spidey sense when it tingles, for it is a sense currently unexplainable by science...

 

 

must not have been on here where peopel are overrateing Wigan as if they were Bayern Munich and win every game until end of season. also they think Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke will do the same but Villa will pick up nothing.

 

funny enough similar people said QPR would be out of trouble 

[villa-revolution]

Well my take is that these players would not struggle again next season. They were kids this season. The ability is there but the experience wasn't. We've seen them improve both subjectively and objectively over the course of the season and a few careful additions would see us easily midtable. Especially if you consider just how close it all is below 7th over the course of a season. I know not everyone agrees with me but ho hum, that's my view.

 

I agree with this. If we can only just stay up there is cause for optimism next season. A new left back, two Centre halves (one to cover Vlaar's absence due to calf injuries) plus that dominant ball winning/playmaking Midfielder we all crave & another top striker to add to Benteke, Gabby & Weimann & to replace Bent who I assume will be sold & we should be fine.

 

Then there is the added bonus of Lambo talent spotting further squad additions & hidden gems from the lower leagues.

 

Please, please, please Villa..............JUST STAY UP!

[VillaCas]

 

PS this chart is a big hit with some of our friends here especially Morpheus and BJ10 - hard to argue with the facts though isn't it.

I noticed this chart that you loved posting and used to argue your improvement by picking a select time seemed to disappear after the Chelsea game.

I don't think anyone has disagreed that we've improved recently.

However in terms of a whole season we still average the exact amount of points a game and are sitting in around the same league position.

The improvements in wins and goals scored are balanced out by losing more and conceding more.

 

 

No getting one past you is the BJ - we improved from the start of the season up until the Chelsea game, then the improvement stopped.

 

I stopped showing the chart then because we stopped improving, no mystery there! I didn't pick any "select period" I just used all the games from last season and all the games played up until the improvement stopped.

 

If the team had continued on the run that they went on over Xmas for an extended period then I may have understood your (constant) criticism (of everything). Fortunately, the management and team responded to the poor run and began another comparitably good period.

 

If we took a league table for 2013 we would be 10th - no consolation given we are 17th in the actual league table, but a clear indication that we are improving.

 

You say that we are no better than last season but that is you being selective - last season we started averagely and ended awfully and this season has been exactly the opposite. Sunderland, Newcastle, Wigan and Norwich are our rivals at the moment and our form this year is better than all of them.

 

There are no guarantees that our good form will continue but I'm optimistic that we can beat Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan and get a point from Chelsea.

[bickster]

I can see two wins and two draws from the last 4 games.

I see us beating Sunderland tonight. The DiCanio "revival" was a win in a local derby against Newcastle, a completely woeful Newcastle and a win against an "on the beach" Everton. One side is woeful, the other have had nothing to play for for weeks. We have home advantage, I see us winning, it's the first time they'll come up against a team that actually cares

Norwich away - I see us winning this one too, they are on the slide and we won there 4-1 in the cup QF, we're looking a better side than then, they are looking worse. I think we have the measure of them now (at the start of the season they were the better side)

Chelsea at home, I've gone for a draw but I can realistically see us actually winning too. This is Chelsea's least important fixture in an 11 day period assuming they qualify for the EL final on May 15th. 6 days before its Man Utd away, 3 days before Its Spurs at Home, two tough games that will probably shape their approach to the game and tire them at the business end of the season, no matter what, if they go through against Basle (likely) they will also have one eye on a European final which despite its second string appeal will mean something to Benitez at least, its his only chance to not be a failure and being the type of manager he is, I'd expect him to rest players in our game too.

Wigan away. Draw. I suspect WIgan may need a point from this game and we'll already be safe, typical end of season draw.

I might be mad but that is how I see our run in

[HeyAnty]

I can see two wins and two draws from the last 4 games.

I see us beating Sunderland tonight. The DiCanio "revival" was a win in a local derby against Newcastle, a completely woeful Newcastle and a win against an "on the beach" Everton. One side is woeful, the other have had nothing to play for for weeks. We have home advantage, I see us winning, it's the first time they'll come up against a team that actually cares

Norwich away - I see us winning this one too, they are on the slide and we won there 4-1 in the cup QF, we're looking a better side than then, they are looking worse. I think we have the measure of them now (at the start of the season they were the better side)

Chelsea at home, I've gone for a draw but I can realistically see us actually winning too. This is Chelsea's least important fixture in an 11 day period assuming they qualify for the EL final on May 15th. 6 days before its Man Utd away, 3 days before Its Spurs at Home, two tough games that will probably shape their approach to the game and tire them at the business end of the season, no matter what, if they go through against Basle (likely) they will also have one eye on a European final which despite its second string appeal will mean something to Benitez at least, its his only chance to not be a failure and being the type of manager he is, I'd expect him to rest players in our game too.

Wigan away. Draw. I suspect WIgan may need a point from this game and we'll already be safe, typical end of season draw.

I might be mad but that is how I see our run in

 

Totally disagree.  When Everton played Sunderland they were in with a good chance of Champions league football so to say they were on the beach is 100% wrong.  Also no matter how bad Newcastle are, an away Derby match is always difficult.

[LondonLax]

Well we will know a lot more at 10pm tonight.

[BOF]

I might be mad but that is how I see our run in

Yeah you're mad. A nice mad though.

[Big_John_10]

No getting one past you is the BJ - we improved from the start of the season up until the Chelsea game, then the improvement stopped.

I stopped showing the chart then because we stopped improving, no mystery there! I didn't pick any "select period" I just used all the games from last season and all the games played up until the improvement stopped.

Well I find it hard to consider our worst start in premiership history signs of improvement. And when discussing where the club would be come the start of January I think you'll find myself and Morpheous were pretty much spot on when compared to what you thought.

There's no doubt we've improved recently, hopefully that improvement will be enough to keep us up but at the moment that's not a given just yet.

You say that we are no better than last season but that is you being selective

No, I think you'll find its you who is being selective. You're the one picking certain period and certain aspects.

I'm looking at everything involved in last season and this. League position, points, goals scored, wins, goals conceded and losses. I'm not selecting one area to base my opinion on and I'm not selecting certain periods that suit my argument.

Potential to be better is much higher with Lambert over Mcleish and at times the football is much better to watch.

Edited April 29, 2013 by Big_John_10

[BOF]

I think the experience will help some of our players a lot.

But for me I just can't see this defence somehow clicking next year.

It needs improvement, either with new players or the manager organising better.

Yeah but that's fine. If the 'careful additions' need to be in defence then make them there. Overall, as I said, a few additions and the overall maturing of the squad and we shouldn't be struggling next season.

[briny_ear]

Or form since that disastrous new year period has been pretty much mid table form. That's pretty encouraging for next season in my view.

This is a much quoted stat recently but the fact is we were 17th on 31 December and we are 17th now so whatever improvement there has been hasn't been enough to help us climb the table (unlike Southampton who have risen from 18th to 13th over the same period). We were on the same points as Wigan (now 2 ahead) 2 behind Newcastle (now 3), 3 behind Fulham (now 6), 3 behind Sunderland (now 3), and so it goes on...

 

The reality is we have just about managed to edge ahead of Wigan and as long as we keep our heads we will just about force them into the final relegation place.

 

That's the long and short of our performance this calendar year and any talk of "mid-table" performance levels is misplaced.