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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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Failure to get any sort of performance out of Bent while apparently being happy to pay him a massive salary for doing not too much would be my no.5 in that list.

 

But perhaps the post mortem should wait until we actually know if we are going down - I still cling to the idea (not based on evidence, just hope) that we will scrape to survival.

 

If we do go down there will be a lot of blood to be spilt because many of the things that have happened at the club this season have been a shocking disgrace and the fans need to start shouting loud about them.

 

But let's not start wielding the sword just yet. 

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I actually think our path to 40 points is fairly clear.

We need 4 wins against Reading, QPR, Sunderland, Stoke, Fulham, Newcastle, and Wigan or 3 wins and some draws. That seems more than doable with the way we have been playing, especially considering we can pick up some extra points against Liverpool who we always play well or Chelsea in a game where they won't have much to play for and we will want some revenge.

For the first time in a while, I actually feel decent about our survival chances.

Either way, at least we aren't QPR.

 

We'll do well to beat Newcastle in the run-in seeing as we aren't playing them .

 

This is the kind of negativity we can do without...

 

:rant:

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I actually think our path to 40 points is fairly clear.

We need 4 wins against Reading, QPR, Sunderland, Stoke, Fulham, Newcastle, and Wigan or 3 wins and some draws. That seems more than doable with the way we have been playing, especially considering we can pick up some extra points against Liverpool who we always play well or Chelsea in a game where they won't have much to play for and we will want some revenge.

For the first time in a while, I actually feel decent about our survival chances.

Either way, at least we aren't QPR.

We'll do well to beat Newcastle in the run-in seeing as we aren't playing them .
I have it as NC on my schedule. I guess that is Norwich then? Even better.
 

Yes we do still have Norwich away to play.

I see more chance of us picking up a point there, than I would if we were going to Newcastle, with the squad they've now assembled following January.

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Norwich will have nothing to play for so we should get a result

 

I think the same can be said of Fulham, Sunderland and Stoke so including the Norwich fixture I think we could pick up 8 points from those 4 fixtures. If we can start the ball rolling and get a minimum of 4 points from Reading and QPR the picture looks a lot rosier and we may pick up a bonus point from the Plop and Chelski fixtures before we play Wigan.

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Norwich will have nothing to play for so we should get a result

Its not that simple. You have to factor in how crap our team is and how bad Lambert is as a manager. We will lose this fixture

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Norwich will have nothing to play for so we should get a result

Its not that simple. You have to factor in how crap our team is and how bad Lambert is as a manager. We will lose this fixture

 

We drew with Norwich in the league this year and beat the quite emphatically in the end at Carrow Road in the cup, when they were in great form too.

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what frustrates me is that we don't seem to fear any team at the moment for 70 minutes and then turn into terror-stricken kids for the last 20.... you could just see the panic spread across the team in the last 15 against arsenal - suddenly everyone's just looking to hoof it away anywhere as fast as they can.... that is where we need a couple of wise heads just to calm everyone down and say, you know what lads, we're doing ok here, lets just keep going and we'll be fine....

 

if we could get that message through, we'll be fine...

 

UTV

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my personal opinion which is probably lost on everyone else, is that we'll survive somfortably. Think the next 10 games could be some of the best we've seen for a couple of years

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I do'nt want to rain on anyons parade but I do'nt understand this ( they will have nothing to play for ) I have played soccer and rugby league and in both codes I have never come across a team that is not interested in winning ! and I did'nt play proffesional.

So, what I am trying to say is that it does not matter who we pay, no team will just lay down and let themselves get beaten just because they have nothing to play for.If ManUre are 12 points clear with 3 games to play will they lose their last 3 games, just because they have nothing to play for ? I dont think so and I dont think any other team will do that either. 

So, it's going to be a very hard run in to the end of the season.

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Norwich will have nothing to play for so we should get a result

Its not that simple. You have to factor in how crap our team is and how bad Lambert is as a manager. We will lose this fixture

 

We drew with Norwich in the league this year and beat the quite emphatically in the end at Carrow Road in the cup, when they were in great form too.

The sending off didn't help in the home game.

The cup game Norwich rested 6 first teamers so not a straight forward comparison.

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Ive see enough in last few weeks to think we will stay up but wont be comfortable

Ive seen parts all season that show we can stay up, bit ive also seen a lot of shit to believe we will go down. Of we hadn't have lost v wigan and southampton at home and not cenceded the last minute goal v swansea we would be 4 points better off and wigan and soton would be 3 points behind us. Our inability to hold on to leads is what's sending is down

Edited by Jimzk5
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I like a good stat me. 

 

Lets look at Lamberts LEAGUE record with us and how that compares to predecessors and more importantly the relegated teams over the past 5 years: 

 

 

Paul Lambert
Played 27
Won 5
Drew 9
Lost 13

Points per game = 0.89

 

To put that in context the league record of his predecessors:

 

Mcleish     1.00 ppg
Houllier     1.24 ppg
MON         1.49 ppg
www.tinyurl.com/avfcpremcomparison

 

As you can see the decline has been shocking. That only started what is the point of my article. It made me think;

"how many points per game did the relegated teams get last year?"

 

So I looked it up and the 4 seasons before that to make it thorough. What I found makes the current situation even more scary.

In 4 of the past 5 years our current form would have relegated us.

 

The Full tables can be seen at: www.tinyurl.com/avfcform

 

But with our current ppg of 0.89 and Goal Difference. These are the teams that would have stayed above us on form over a season:

11/12
Bolton           36pts 0.95ppg

 

10/11
Blackpool      39pts 1.03ppg
Small heath   39pts 1.03ppg

 

08/09
Newcastle     34pts 0.89ppg (Goal diff 7 better than ours)

 

07/08
Reading         36pts 0.95ppg
Small Heath   35pts 0.93ppg

 

If this form continues, the only thing I can see is Relegation.

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