Bollitics: VT General Election Poll #6 - Leaders Debate 3

[Gringo]

Another one, Dover Port

beeb"]The Port of Dover board applied to privatise the facility in January but all the candidates for Dover and Deal say they are opposed to the idea.

Conservative Charlie Elphick admitted his party changed its mind on the issue but claimed Labour supported the move.

But Labour's Gwyn Prosser and Liberal Democrat John Brigden said they were also opposed to privatising the port.

During the 2005 election campaign the Conservatives supported a sell-off but Mr Elphick told the BBC: "At the last election we made a case with which I do not agree.

So none of the above

[mykeyb]

So if Labour get stuffed at the polls next Thursday. Its not because the public have had enough of the way they have mismanaged the economy, its because the media have it in for Gordon.

What a load of shite

[leviramsey]

OK, so what's just happened?

17:00

hung parliament 8/11 (59% likelihood)

tory majority 6/4 (41%)

18:00

hung parliament 6/5 (46% likelihood)

tory majority 10/11 (54%)

Going to be some serious stuff in tomorrow's newspapers I guess.

18:30

hung parliament 7/5 (42% likelihood)

tory majority 8/11 (58%)

The Indy"]

David Cameron has increased his party's lead over his opponents to 10 points, which suggests that he may be able to secure an outright Conservative victory this Thursday, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday today.

After weeks of opinion polls predicting a hung parliament due to the surge in support for Nick Clegg, the Tories are up two points to 38 per cent, ahead of Labour on 28 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 25 per cent. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have slipped one point since last Wednesday.

It is the largest Conservative lead in a ComRes poll since February.

If repeated on 6 May, this would still result in a hung parliament, as Mr Cameron would be 11 short of an overall majority, on 315 seats. Labour would have 236 seats and the Lib Dems just 69. To be sure of an outright win, Mr Cameron needs to achieve a figure of 39 or 40 per cent.

But the trend across all polls since the third and final debate last Thursday suggests the Tory leader has regained the momentum needed to reach the steps of Downing Street. Other surveys this weekend also showed the Conservatives beginning to stretch their lead.

The third place for the Lib Dems is a blow to Nick Clegg, who had been until last week the runaway success of the campaign after his performance in the first two TV debates.

The Lib Dem leader had been hoping to secure key electoral reforms by assuming the role of power-broker in a hung parliament, but today's poll suggests that the "Cleggmania" bubble may have not exactly burst, but in the words of one pundit be showing signs "of a slow puncture". In fact, today's poll figures are similar to those taken before the leaders' debates.

It also indicates that Mr Clegg's description of the contest as a two-horse race between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats may be out of date.

Immediately following his stunning first debate performance, Mr Clegg enjoyed a personal rating as high as 61 per cent, while the Lib Dems as a party reached 34 per cent and were ahead of Conservatives and Labour on more than one occasion.

A ComRes/IoS poll on 11 April, at the start of the campaign, had the Lib Dems on just 16 per cent, behind the Tories on 39 per cent and Labour on 32. It was the fastest and highest poll surge for a third party in an election campaign ever, and the biggest change for any party in a campaign.

The Conservative fightback began with Mr Cameron's victory in the third debate last week, in which he talked of getting down to work as prime minister on Friday.

The poll suggests that the Tory strategy of warning that a hung parliament would be bad for the economy appears to have worked, with support for a political stalemate dropping among voters.

Some 31 per cent now say they would prefer to see the Conservatives form a government with an overall majority, compared to 25 per cent on 18 April.

By contrast, support for the Tories going into coalition with the Lib Dems has nearly halved, from 28 per cent last month to 15 per cent today.

Just 22 per cent want to see Labour form a government with support from the Lib Dems, compared to 28 per cent last month. The proportion of people who want Labour to form a government with an overall majority has remained the same, at 19 per cent.

In a further sign that Cleggmania could be short-lived, today's poll shows the number of voters who think he should play a part in the next government has fallen from 64 per cent in the wake of the first TV debate to 47 per cent today – although this figure is five points higher than the percentage who think he should not have a government role.

Surprisingly, 75 per cent of people say the three televised leaders' debates had not changed their minds over voting intention, with just 19 per cent saying they had.

Gordon Brown may be able to draw some comfort from the finding that 85 per cent say they had not changed their mind about who to vote for because of the Prime Minister calling Gillian Duffy, a Rochdale grandmother, a "bigoted woman".

One in 10 said this would change their vote – although this figure rises to one in five among the low-skilled DE social group.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, said he had "personally paid a very high price" for his comments, which were picked up on a TV microphone last Wednesday.

With electoral reform pushed to the top of the agenda as the three parties' poll positions have narrowed, some 55 per cent of people think the voting system should be changed, compared to 47 per cent in February.

Following The IoS One of the Above campaign to increase turnout, the poll finds that 69 per cent say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. This suggests turnout will surpass the 70 per cent mark on Thursday and could match the 71.5 per cent who voted in the 1997 election. Turnout slumped to around 60 per cent for the last two elections.

A YouGov poll for The Sun yesterday put the Conservatives on 34 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent, up one point, and the Lib Dems unchanged on 28 per cent.

Last night, an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph showed a similar lead developing for Mr Cameron. The Tories were up three points to 36 per cent, Labour up one to 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down one to 27 per cent.

Poll of the pollsters: What the experts predict and how they’ve shifted

Ben Page, chief executive, Ipsos MORI: "It's a mug's game calling this election, with half the voters saying they may still change their minds."

11 April: Hung parliament with the Tories 25 seats short of a majority.

18 April: Conservative lead, from 20 short of a majority to a majority of 20 seats.

Now: Conservative lead, from 20 short of a majority to a majority of 20 seats.

Robert Salvoni, President, Harris Interactive: "Cameron is viewed as the strongest leader, but he only has a few days left to convince the electorate that he is in touch with the nation and that his policies are strong enough to deliver on the challenges ahead."

11 April: Conservatives win with 2-10 seat majority.

18 April: Conservatives win with 10 seat majority.

Now: Conservatives win with 10 seat majority.

Martin Boon, head of social & government research, ICM Research:"It's fairly apparent to all that the debates were a real game changer and the Lib Dem surge means it's fairly impossible to predict the share of the vote, never mind seats."

11 April: Conservatives win with 20 seat majority.

18 April: Conservatives win with 15 seat majority.

Now: Hung parliament with the Conservatives four or five seats short of a majority.

Andrew Cooper, founder and strategic director, Populus: "There is nothing that Gordon Brown can do to recover his position. They are rejecting him, his arguments and his government. Labour are likely to be not merely defeated, but purged."

11 April: Conservatives win with 10+ seat majority.

18 April: Conservatives win with 10+ seat majority.

Now: Conservatives win with an overall majority of 10+ seats.

Andrew Hawkins, executive chairman, ComRes: "Had Gordon Brown or David Cameron seen Michael Cockerell's excellent documentary 'How to win a TV debate' they would never have agreed to it."

11 April: Conservatives win with 32 seat majority.

18 April: Hung parliament with the Conservatives 11 seats short of a majority.

Now: Hung parliament with the Conservatives 11 seats short of a majority.

Andy Morris, research director, Vision Critical: "The first debate was the defining moment of the campaign. The Lib Dem surge that followed caused a redefinition of campaign tactics by all three parties."

11 April: Conservatives win with 40-50 seat majority.

18 April: Conservatives win with 30-40 seat majority.

Now: Hung parliament with the Conservatives between one and 10 seats short of a majority.

Johnny Heald, managing director, Opinion Research Business: "Labour's defence of their title never really got going ... and there must be slight questions over their strategy. The momentum appears to be with Cameron. "

11 April: Conservatives win with 40+ seat majority.

18 April: Conservatives win with 40+ seat majority.

Now: Conservatives win with a 20+ seat majority.

[avfc89]

So if Labour get stuffed at the polls next Thursday. Its not because the public have had enough of the way they have mismanaged the economy, its because the media have it in for Gordon.

What a load of shite

How will the Tories improve us? The answer is they won't.

[JulieB]

Gordon Brown has just been on Sky News giving a sermon about helping humanity and never again just standing by whilst innocence is slaughtered...

but someone's just sent me an email about a school full of children being shelled by the Israelis' in Gaza recently. As it happens a film crew happened to be in the area filming a festival at the school and caught the whole incident from start to finnish. Unbeleivably the Israelis have used White Phosporous in the shells.. and the results are sickening.

Can't beleive the photos I'm looking at!! I think they deserve a thread of their own....

Never mind the election.....What are the politicians not just Gordon Brown doing about this?

Any use of White Phosporous powder against civilians is a war crime!!

Disgusted!

[b23avfc]

None of them have the solution.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

I have a solution.

Coup d'etat.

[PauloBarnesi]

None of them have the solution.

But maybe together they have?

[drat01]

None of them have the solution.

But maybe together they have?

Just as long as you are not gay - The Tory party seemingly have clear views on them

Rising Tory star Philippa Stroud ran prayer sessions to 'cure' gay people

A high-flying prospective Conservative MP, credited with shaping many of the party's social policies, founded a church that tried to "cure" homosexuals by driving out their "demons" through prayer.

Philippa Stroud, who is likely to win the Sutton and Cheam seat on Thursday and is head of the Centre for Social Justice, the thinktank set up by the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, has heavily influenced David Cameron's beliefs on subjects such as the family. A popular and energetic Tory, she is seen as one of the party's rising stars.

..............

Following on from Graylings comments its obvious that homophobia is alive and well in the Tory party

[drat01]

Tory councillor tells Brown to "fall under" a car

A Conservative councillor this morning said the prime minister should "fall under" a car. John Hills, 73, heckled Gordon Brown as he arrived in heavy rain in Eltham for the first of ten visits around London today.

The prime minister had just emerged from a Safer Neighbourhoods centre on an estate in the area when Hills confronted him from across the road. He repeatedly shouted: "You're rubbish." He then added: "Don't forget to take your microphone off you might call someone a bigot. There's a car - fall under it."

The Conservative party said they were preparing a statement about the behaviour of Hills, who is councillor for Coldharbour New Eltham. He arrived at the campaign event with several other Tory activists holding placards.

Now I am sure that all parties have similar but it seems that the Tory party are "employing" more and more who are turning this whole election thing into a real nasty event. Let's hope that Cameron acts quickly

[Gringo]

With a discredited govt, years of unchecked destruction, with an unpopular leader who had disposed of the incumbent, overseeing a massive failure of economic management, then surely the opposition are a shoo-in.

Surely a massive majority is a foregone conclusion.

Well it was in 1997

So how come the tories are faltering so much? There is no similar example graph showing that the people have yearned for change for years and years. Another example that the majority of the country wants to be led from the left.

Time to break the hegemony of 31 years of right wing rule and vote lib dem and bring in reform that sees the outcome of elections reflect the desire of the majority of the country.

[PauloBarnesi]

The Tories have bought in Marlon Harewood in our constituency.

[Jondaken]

Hey, where's not voting gone?

Not voting.

Will you be going to the polling stations to leave a blank slip then? 8)

[Gringo]

Hey, where's not voting gone?

Not voting.

Will you be going to the polling stations to leave a blank slip then? 8)

Still no votes for the SNP I see. So over three polls that's a grand total of zero.

[PauloBarnesi]

Now I am sure that all parties have similar

I am afraid you have really overstepped the mark. For weeks I ve stood by and listened to your blanket condemnation of political parties. We aren’t all the same. At no time has a single member of the The Party for the reintroduction of the European Beaver have done anything like this. I wish you would realise that we are different. Viva La Beaver!

[Chindie]

I'm quite encouraged to see no support for the SNP.

Had 2 letters this week from the Lib Dems. One from the party itself saying how important Wales is to them and how in many parts of Wales Labour and the Tories can't win, and how we should feel let down by Labours dominance in London and Cardiff (where Plaid props them up). And the other from the local candidate who is seemingly bloody popular, for reasons beyond my knowledge, gunning for the student vote in Aber, which apparently is one of the closest seats in the country, only 219 in it apparently according to the letter between Liberals and Plaid, the only parties that can win here (the Labour candidate is actually a student, I've worked with him, dunno why he's bothering).

Interestingly the candidate letter notes that the Tories are planning to raise interest rates on student loans. I'm utterly naive when it comes to finance, so a silly question - assuming, God forbid, Cameron gets a majority and he puts through an interest rise on student loans, does that affect the loans I already have taken out, or do they stay under the rates I had taken them under under Labour? Apologies for how stupid that sounds :oops:.

[Gringo]

OK, so what's just happened?

17:00

hung parliament 8/11 (59% likelihood)

tory majority 6/4 (41%)

18:00

hung parliament 6/5 (46% likelihood)

tory majority 10/11 (54%)

Going to be some serious stuff in tomorrow's newspapers I guess.

So the odds started shifting again this afternoon, first the tories moving out towards evens and then a quick jump back below 10/11, and over the last hour to 11/10.

More opinion polls on their way suggesting a hung parliament?

[bickster]

The polls aren't really calling this one like they usually do are they?

[Gringo]

The polls aren't really calling this one like they usually do are they?

The only time the polls were more than the 3%+/- margin of error out was in 1992 when the tories flooded marginals with postal votes. After that, labour set up their own organisation specifically targetted to postal voters both in the UK and abroad.

[bickster]

No what I mean is, this time the polls are not quite as homogenous in their predictions between different polling companies, or maybe its my imagination. It just seems to me that they are having difficulty calling it though.