Ratings & Reactions: Villa v Brighton

[alreadyexists]

5 hours ago, WHY said:

Could someone please explain how xG works. Actually don’t bother as it’s pointless. Yesterday we had 9 shots on target scoring 6, Brighton had 3 shots on target, scoring 1. In the fantasy world of expected goals, Brightons xG was higher than ours, which was 1.49

It does just feel like a way of letting the teams off their defeats by saying that the xG was higher… 

football only cares your how many goals you score Vs how many the opponents score. 

[Brumstopdogs]

 

[TRO]

12 hours ago, The_Rev said:

 

 

It's computer model based on the quality of chances created.  Basically every shot that ever happens in the Premier League (and other major leagues) gets recorded and put into the data so there is a record for every position which can be compared to the shot you just took.  Brighton's xG was high yesterday because Ansu Fati's goal was him shooting into an unguarded net from four yards, compare that to  JJ's which was from outside the box with defenders and the keeper to beat. Depending on whose model you use, Fati's goal was worth something like 0.6 while JJ's was worth 0.05 (source) and the own goal was worth nothing at all because own goals don't count for xG. 

 

 

You can see it here, Brighton had three "big" opportunities, which I believe would have been Estupinan's shot which was comfortably saved by Dibu, the header Solly March put into row Z and their goal, but xG isn't supposed to be a metric used to show who should have won an individual match. It doesn't account for things like the defenders backing off of JJ yesterday and inviting him to shoot, it doesn't care who the chances fall to either, so Estupinan's chance would be worth the same regardless of whether it fell to him or to Harry Kane.   The main point of xG is reading into longer term trends, the obvious one is it highlights good strikers who will consistently overperform their xG because they are reliable finishers but it can be used to highlight areas of the pitch where it's worth trying to get the ball into (why do you think cutbacks into the six yard box have suddenly become so popular?) and it can show which teams are over reliant on certain players or which teams have a striker holding them back. 

 

TLDR:  Don't worry about it.  

Thats why there is no substitiute for the eye test.

[briny_ear]

On 01/10/2023 at 01:24, TRO said:

just going by the bible " Aston Villa the Complete Record"......(no need to apologise), I went through the League results at home and there was no 13 game consecutive wins, in that year to my knowledge.

The BBC have better resources than me, but I couldn't detect it.

I don't know the answer to your question....but I suspect 10 consecutive home league wins wasn't done very often....its impressive.

In 1980/81 when we won the league Title, we won 16 home games from a possible 21....those sequences went 2-5-5-2-2

I would suspect to match 10 consecutive Home wins in the League, will take some tracking down.

As far as I can see we had a run of 13 home wins in the league between 12 Feb  and 15 Oct 1983. This obviously straddles two seasons but then so does our current run of 10. In 1983 it started with a 2-0 win against `Everton and ended with 1-0 against Small Heath. Next home match we crashed to earth with a 2-6 defeat by Arsenal.

So I think @robby b and the BBC are right.

[Lochheads twin]

Great news. we are still under the radar after this weekends win.

• Shock horror! Both Manchester clubs lost.
• VAR prevented both Spurs & Liverpool getting 3 points
• Chelsea are involved in a mid-table west London derby
• Arsenal beat Bournemouth 
• The Ryder Cup.

Lets continue in stealth mode until the season ends and we creep up on the Sky 6

Onwards!

Edited October 2, 2023 by Lochheads twin

[BOF]

Andrew Madley has now been responsible for 2 of the 3 worst refereeing performances we've seen in the league this season (according to VillaTalk referee post match ratings). The hiding at Newcastle and this one, proving it doesn't need to be a defeat for us to think he's a bit shit.

[TRO]

1 hour ago, briny_ear said:

As far as I can see we had a run of 13 home wins in the league between 12 Feb  and 15 Oct 1983. This obviously straddles two seasons but then so does our current run of 10. In 1983 it started with a 2-0 win against `Everton and ended with 1-0 against Small Heath. Next home match we crashed to earth with a 2-6 defeat by Arsenal.

So I think @robby b and the BBC are right.

Yep, Correct, I have spotted it...apologies.

ended to Arsenal once again losing 1-4 on 29 Oct 1983 under Tony Barton.

[HKP90]

I keep seeing comments regarding 'stealth' and 'going under the radar' as the preferred MO. I don't disagree as such, but I'm not sure our marketing dept. would want it like that. We're after more fans, especially with the upcoming increased ground capacity.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I don't see how you can consistently challenge by 'going under the radar'. In the end you run out of money, cos no f***er wants to buy your merch. 

[briny_ear]

3 hours ago, HKP90 said:

I keep seeing comments regarding 'stealth' and 'going under the radar' as the preferred MO. I don't disagree as such, but I'm not sure our marketing dept. would want it like that. We're after more fans, especially with the upcoming increased ground capacity.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I don't see how you can consistently challenge by 'going under the radar'. In the end you run out of money, cos no f***er wants to buy your merch. 

I think the point about flying under the radar is that you do it until you are within reach of your target, then strike when it’s too late for your opponents to stop you. So not seeking permanent anonymity, just getting stronger without anyone noticing or taking special efforts to work you out until you are unstoppable. 

Anyhow, I’m not sure beating Brighton so spectacularly is the best way to keep your heads down so maybe it’s over anyway.

[OutByEaster?]

I watched the full ninety minutes again today.

I reckon there are four or five situations where you'd normally expect a Brighton player to have been booked and you'd usually see Fati sent off for kicking Konsa up the backside in their squabble.

It really was a very strange refereeing performance.

 

[oishiiniku_uk]

Watch the guy to the right of the players who wipes out - looks like he fell down a hole or something! 

[tinker]

3 hours ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

Watch the guy to the right of the players who wipes out - looks like he fell down a hole or something! 

Two of them go straight down on their arses.

[TRO]

20 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

I watched the full ninety minutes again today.

I reckon there are four or five situations where you'd normally expect a Brighton player to have been booked and you'd usually see Fati sent off for kicking Konsa up the backside in their squabble.

It really was a very strange refereeing performance.

 

It also bothers me, that so many can see the infringement of Zaniolo possibly impeding Steele's view for Ollies second goal.....but the same level of reference was not afforded to the recent impeding of Martinez's view, after a conceded goal.

We can't play this "Heads you lose ,tails you lose" game with the pundits.

I accept we as Villa fans want to be fair in our assessments, but folk outside of B6, seem to want to be selective.....quite frankly, I'm not having it.

[oishiiniku_uk]

On 02/10/2023 at 17:52, OutByEaster? said:

I watched the full ninety minutes again today.

I reckon there are four or five situations where you'd normally expect a Brighton player to have been booked and you'd usually see Fati sent off for kicking Konsa up the backside in their squabble.

It really was a very strange refereeing performance.

 

I thought they got a lot of the 50-50 calls go their way, but we had the rub of the green on several key decisions (potential offside on goal 2, foul in the build-up of goal 3, Konsa escaping a second booking when grabbing Fati after being provoked). Don't think any would have changed the result as we were rampant, but it might have made the scoreline less emphatic. Still, if this is some kind of big club bias in action, I will gladly take it!
Also, I listened to a couple of Brighton podcasts to see what they made of the game and the amount of whingeing they did not only about the decisions that went against them, but also saying we're an overly physical, nasty side etc. I don't think I've heard that from any other opposition fans, so I can only guess that they were annoyed that we completely out-fought, outplayed and out-thought them (hint for De Zerbi: don't play the 2 most feeble-looking CMs in the league against a 3 of Dougie, McGinn and Kamara). Brighton fans seem to think their team are the last hope for the beautiful game or something!

Edited October 4, 2023 by oishiiniku_uk

[TRO]

2 hours ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

I thought they got a lot of the 50-50 calls go their way, but we had the rub of the green on several key decisions (potential offside on goal 2, foul in the build-up of goal 3, Konsa escaping a second booking when grabbing Fati after being provoked). Don't think any would have changed the result as we were rampant, but it might have made the scoreline less emphatic. Still, if this is some kind of big club bias in action, I will gladly take it!
Also, I listened to a couple of Brighton podcasts to see what they made of the game and the amount of whingeing they did not only about the decisions that went against them, but also saying we're an overly physical, nasty side etc. I don't think I've heard that from any other opposition fans, so I can only guess that they were annoyed that we completely out-fought, outplayed and out-thought them (hint for De Zerbi: don't play the 2 most feeble-looking CMs in the league against a 3 of Dougie, McGinn and Kamara). Brighton fans seem to think their team are the last hope for the beautiful game or something!

If they think we are physical or nasty....they need to see more of our games, its been a feature of my frustration, over the years.

As for the being fortunate with decisions.....it would be nifty to have a toting up excercise, where some of our injustices have resulted in the rule changes ( Man City away)....We have been short changed many, many times, about time we had a bit of a fortune change.

They got royally dumped on their proverbial....alas, they have plenty of games left to recover.

[TRO]

On 03/10/2023 at 08:03, oishiiniku_uk said:

Watch the guy to the right of the players who wipes out - looks like he fell down a hole or something! 

Perhaps he was trying to see what brand of boots they were wearing