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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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59 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Not only is this go e for us. Next season Chelsea, Newcastle will be back. Spurs and United build more. 

So the peak for us was 2023. Time to return to where we belong in mid table.

Chelsea will be back from their back to back midtable finishes. Terrifying.

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1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

Not only is this go e for us. Next season Chelsea, Newcastle will be back. Spurs and United build more. 

So the peak for us was 2023. Time to return to where we belong in mid table.

We do not long 'belong' in mid table.

We are Aston Villa.

We have an elite manager who had demonstrated a capacity to find a winning formula in adverse circumstances. 

We need to rally to the flag here and keep pushing.

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6 minutes ago, omariqy said:

I hope the players don’t have the same attitude. 

Seeing what this is doing to some fans is actually quite worrisome. Im all for passionate support but sport shouldn’t be this devastating to a persons psyche.

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53 minutes ago, Mantis said:

In the grand scheme of things do we really have it so bad? Most clubs would kill to be in the position we're in.

I would say we have. The last couple of seasons have been good under Unai but what did we have before that? Constant relegation battles and losing a lot more than we won, relegation to the Championship with only 6 more points than that awful Derby team got with 3 wins all season and 27 defeats. Getting to the FA Cup final then losing 4-0 to Arsenal. Not won a trophy since 1996 and that was just the Carabao Cup. Not won the FA Cup since 1957. Not played in the biggest European competition since 1983. Even the good seasons over the years, 08-09 when we had top 4 and Champions League pretty much sown up by February, we were about 8 points clear of Arsenal, then completely collapsed and blew our opportunity. And it looks like the same might be happening again. 

 

Compare to the successes of similar sized clubs like Spurs who've had it a lot better. Or Chelsea and City who've had ridiculous success because of money when they had no right to. Even Newcastle, who complained non stop about Mike Ashley, have had more recent success than we've had having played in the Champs League this season and the early 2000s. I would say of similar sized clubs to us, only Leeds have had it worse. Maybe Everton as well but they're only having a bad time at the moment and haven't suffered relegation for 70 years so I'm not sure they've suffered like we have.

Edited by Leeroy
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It's going to be a fight.

A completely opposite scenario than last year's Conference league run. Our team was relatively healthy but we had a mountain to climb and had to go to an absurd 2.2 PPG run to get there after our Arsenal loss in 15 matches.

Now, we're the walking dead trying to crawl across the line while playing in Conference.

But - and this is important context - we would only need about 1.7 PPG to reach 70 points - which should be enough for 4th or 5th.

8 wins and 1 draw to get there.

Home

  • Forest
  • Spurs
  • Wolves
  • Brentford
  • Bournemouth
  • Chelsea
  • Liverpool

Away

  • Fulham
  • Luton
  • West Ham
  • City
  • Arsenal
  • Brighton
  • Palace

You could argue wins against: Forest, Brentford, Bournemouth, Luton, Palace, Fulham - yes anything can happen and none of those will be easy matches but on paper, we have mostly decent records against those sides with the exception of Bournemouth. But that still means we're going to have pick up at least 6-8 points vs Spurs, Wolves, Cheslea, Liverpool, City, West Ham, Arsenal, and Brighton. Got to be 3 wins in there somewhere.

Like last season - it might go all the way down to Palace - who hopefully have booked their tickets to Mallorca at that point in the season.

Edited by DJBOB
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Hang on a second. Spurs?

We have won the league since Spurs last won it. We have come as close as Spurs to winning it in the PL era (2nd place finish) and we have won as many trophies as they have since 96. It has been crap for us since 2010 but we still played in three major finals (league cup ×2 and FA Cup).

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3 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

It's going to be a fight.

A completely opposite scenario than last year's Conference league run. Our team was relatively healthy but we had a mountain to climb and had to go to an absurd 2.2 PPG run to get there after our Arsenal loss in 15 matches.

Now, we're the walking dead trying to crawl across the line while playing in Conference.

But - and this is important context - we would only need about 1.7 PPG to reach 70 points - which should be enough for 4th or 5th.

8 wins and 1 draw to get there.

Home

  • Forest 
  • Spurs 
  • Wolves 
  • Brentford 
  • Bournemouth 
  • Chelsea 
  • Liverpool 

Away

  • Fulham 
  • Luton 
  • West Ham 
  • City 
  • Arsenal 
  • Brighton 
  • Palace 

Like last season - it might go all the way down to Palace - who hopefully have booked their tickets to Mallorca at that point in the season.

Home

  • Forest - W
  • Spurs - L
  • Wolves - L
  • Brentford - W
  • Bournemouth - W
  • Chelsea - L
  • Liverpool - L

Away

  • Fulham - L
  • Luton - W
  • West Ham - L
  • City - L
  • Arsenal - L
  • Brighton - L
  • Palace - W

We don't do draws so.

 

 

Edited by AshVilla
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4 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

Home

  • Forest - W
  • Spurs - L
  • Wolves - L
  • Brentford - W
  • Bournemouth - W
  • Chelsea - L
  • Liverpool - L

Away

  • Fulham - L
  • Luton - W
  • West Ham - L
  • City - L
  • Arsenal - L
  • Brighton - L
  • Palace - W

We don't do draws so.

 

 

We've got 4 draws this season so can probably sprinkle in a draw for a few of the losses. I have similar thoughts there. Villa pessimism says we lose every single match against our competitors around the table, but I don't think it'll happen.

And for context, that form you have there is 1.07 PPG which is barely escaping relegation form in a normal season.

Something for VT to think about when predicting these matches.

Edited by DJBOB
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1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

I’m still confident we can get 6th but Man U and Spurs will have a much stronger finish to the season. 

And Newcastle. They’re all winning games and not necessarily playing brilliantly. Grinding out the wins whilst are on a nosedive in form. 

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1 minute ago, Captain_Townsend said:

Hang on a second. Spurs?

We have won the league since Spurs last won it. We have come as close as Spurs to winning it in the PL era (2nd place finish) and we have won as many trophies as they have since 96. It has been crap for us since 2010 but we still played in three major finals (league cup ×2 and FA Cup).

Trophy wise we've been pretty even since the early 80s with us probably edging it as we won league and European Cup but last 15-20 years they've been far more successful, top 4 at least half dozen times, top players like Bale and Modric and Kane and Son to watch, an incredible new stadium, and much higher revenues than us.

 

They complain about Levy over there but he's done an incredible job considering 15 years ago we really were on a par with them in the football world. We made some absolutely woeful football decisions while they made some brilliant ones. Building a new stadium being one while we dither about on Villa Park expansion and ignore building a whole new stadium as we don't want to upset the fans. 

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6 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

Home

  • Forest - W
  • Spurs - L
  • Wolves - L
  • Brentford - W
  • Bournemouth - W
  • Chelsea - L
  • Liverpool - L

Away

  • Fulham - L
  • Luton - W
  • West Ham - L
  • City - L
  • Arsenal - L
  • Brighton - L
  • Palace - W

We don't do draws so.

 

 

That’s a worse prediction than me! I have us on 63 points come the end of the season. Before the Man U game I said 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses… 

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27 minutes ago, omariqy said:

I hope the players don’t have the same attitude. 

They seem to like losing and playing like a Sunday league team at the minute.. so they probs do! 

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3 minutes ago, Tayls said:

They seem to like losing and playing like a Sunday league team at the minute.. so they probs do! 

Yeah because I'm sure a Sunday league team would've largely dominated Man United yesterday and only narrowly lost 2-1.

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1 minute ago, Mantis said:

Yeah because I'm sure a Sunday league team would've largely dominated Man United yesterday and only narrowly lost 2-1.

Stop taking things so literally man. Lighten up a little! New week and all that jazz 

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Just now, Stevo985 said:

After we beat Arsenal, Man Utd we’re 8 points behind us. 
 

Now they’re 5 points behind us. 
 

All of that poor form, all of these shit games, and they’ve caught up 3 points. And that’s because they fluked a result against us last night 

 

Dont underestimate how difficult it will be to overtake us 

Yes - even though it doesn't feel like it, we're still in the driver's seat where we often were not in the driver's seat last year.

Better starting position, all tires flat and the engine keeps backfiring. Is it going to be enough to get over the line? 😬

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1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

After we beat Arsenal, Man Utd were 8 points behind us. 
 

Now they’re 5 points behind us. 
 

All of that poor form, all of these shit games, and they’ve caught up 3 points. And that’s because they fluked a result against us last night 

 

Dont underestimate how difficult it will be to overtake us 

Honestly your confidence is great. But, let’s not kid ourselves here. We look likely to lose 3 or 4 in a row. Utd have hit form and manage to grind out results whilst being so rediculously boring to watch. We are bad at the moment, injuries means we struggle to get a consistent starting 11. Defence has taken an absolute battering. We won’t stay ahead of United for much longer. 

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7 minutes ago, Tayls said:

Stop taking things so literally man. Lighten up a little! New week and all that jazz 

Ok but we genuinely played well against United last night? It wasn't like the Chelsea or Newcastle games at all.

And that's without mentioning the demolition of Sheffield United. Yeah they're shit but if we really were as bad as people are making out, we wouldn't have won that game so easily.

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