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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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Fail to win against Burnley and it will be very difficult to get back ahead of Spurs when they leapfrog us into the top 4. Fifth is probably the realistic target at this point. Anything higher would be a bonus. 

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Like-for-like vs. last season, we are now 8 points up. So looking at a 69 point finish if we just match last season's results for the remainder (which would include a loss to Burnley, before anyone starts panicking in case it's anything but a win on Saturday...)

For us to not make top 5 at this point would require us to underperform against last season AND for one of Man Utd, West Ham, Newcastle or Brighton to go at 2ppg for the remainder of the season.

 

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19 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Like-for-like vs. last season, we are now 8 points up. So looking at a 69 point finish if we just match last season's results for the remainder (which would include a loss to Burnley, before anyone starts panicking in case it's anything but a win on Saturday...)

For us to not make top 5 at this point would require us to underperform against last season AND for one of Man Utd, West Ham, Newcastle or Brighton to go at 2ppg for the remainder of the season.

 

As it's probably gonna come down to us and Spurs for 4th, probably worth looking at how they look like-for-like against last season. They are currently 9 points up on last season, so if they match last season's results for the remainder, they are looking at a... 69 point finish.

As they won away at Brighton last year, a win tomorrow night won't change this, and anything but a win would leave them with a worse year-on-year performance than us at the halfway stage of this season.

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2 hours ago, Tayls said:

Fail to win against Burnley and it will be very difficult to get back ahead of Spurs when they leapfrog us into the top 4. Fifth is probably the realistic target at this point. Anything higher would be a bonus. 

Why are spurs guaranteed to leapfrog us? 

They've had worse spells than us this season. And we beat them. 

Edited by DCJonah
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37 minutes ago, Brumstopdogs said:

 

Mmm, not having it. Sounds a lot like high horse BS.

Four poor performances in a row. There's reasons to be frustrated and worried about wasting a good start.

If we lose the next five games we'll be on 39 from 24. Projected for more points than last season. Something that would have been viewed as a positive before the season started. Wonder if they'll still be saying it then?

Let's lift it and start playing well again.

Edited by Tomaszk
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1 hour ago, Tayls said:

They’re currently playing better than us. 

Funny that but I seem to remember us beating the Champions and Arsenal over a few days just a fortnight ago. Not to mention Spurs on their own patch just before that. 
We’ll be above Spurs still by February. Have some confidence we’re about to play our ninth game in a month. Spurs are still behind us despite easier and far less fixtures.

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7 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Mmm, not having it. Sounds a lot like high horse BS.

Four poor performances in a row. There's reasons to be frustrated and worried about wasting a good start.

If we lose the next five games we'll be on 39 from 24. Projected for more points than last season. Something that would have been viewed as a positive before the season started.

Let's lift it and start playing well again.

M’mmm not having it sounds like a lot of negative bs to me. 
We’re still third after a draining month where we will have played nine games. Our squad has been deprived of important players through injury and suspension

However we have still beaten Man City, Arsenal and Spurs in that month. We also topped our European group and qualified. 
How anyone can be negative about that is a tad annoying and mystifying.

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9 minutes ago, Galway Lion said:

M’mmm not having it sounds like a lot of negative bs to me. 
We’re still third after a draining month where we will have played nine games. Our squad has been deprived of important players through injury and suspension

However we have still beaten Man City, Arsenal and Spurs in that month. We also topped our European group and qualified. 
How anyone can be negative about that is a tad annoying and mystifying.

What's negative sorry?

Worried about wasting a good start?

Let's lift it and start playing well again?

Four poor performances in a row?

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34 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Mmm, not having it. Sounds a lot like high horse BS.

Four poor performances in a row. There's reasons to be frustrated and worried about wasting a good start.

If we lose the next five games we'll be on 39 from 24. Projected for more points than last season. Something that would have been viewed as a positive before the season started. Wonder if they'll still be saying it then?

Let's lift it and start playing well again.

I mean that's just a very random negative stance. 

We're not going to lose the next 5 games. We're not losing 6 consecutive games under Emery with the squad. 

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Just now, DCJonah said:

I mean that's just a very random negative stance. 

We're not going to lose the next 5 games. We're not losing 6 consecutive games under Emery with the squad. 

I'm saying if that near impossible situation arises, we're still on a great points tally!

That's when the calm down calm down tweets can come out.

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7 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Will only know 100% in May really if English teams are in the finals of the three competitions. So straight away we can make 5th far more likely by getting to at least last four of the conference league.

That we can improve our chances of qualifying for CL by winning the UCL has been a point missing through most of yhe 'league or a cup?' discourse. 

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11 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Romero injured so I don't think Spurs will be above us for long even if they win tomorrow.

Udogie suspended for tomorrow night so I assume they're putting out one of those scratch defences like v us of Dier and Emerson Royal as CBs and Davies at LB.

Annoyingly Mitoma is out for Brighton but they should still be creating a decent amount against that backline.

Will be a 3-2 either way game I think.

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1 hour ago, Tomaszk said:

What's negative sorry?

Worried about wasting a good start?

Let's lift it and start playing well again?

Four poor performances in a row?

We’ve taken seven points from them four poor performances. Considering we’re struggling with injuries and suspensions, obviously the form will dip. Look at Newcastle, Spurs, Utd, all missing players and all losing games. We’ve lost ONE in 11! Spurs 5, Newcastle 6 and Utd 5. 
Maybe we might lift it when we get players back and solidify our superb year.

Supporting the team through this patch is what they need. It’s easy to support them when they’re winning.

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27 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Udogie suspended for tomorrow night so I assume they're putting out one of those scratch defences like v us of Dier and Emerson Royal as CBs and Davies at LB.

Annoyingly Mitoma is out for Brighton but they should still be creating a decent amount against that backline.

Will be a 3-2 either way game I think.

We're all Seagulls 

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59 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Udogie suspended for tomorrow night so I assume they're putting out one of those scratch defences like v us of Dier and Emerson Royal as CBs and Davies at LB.

Annoyingly Mitoma is out for Brighton but they should still be creating a decent amount against that backline.

Will be a 3-2 either way game I think.

Wasn't Udogie suspended for their game against Everton? Or was it a 2 match ban because he got a red earlier in the season?

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