cheltenham_villa Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I think we'll finish 11th, so many below us will be fighting for points in the run in, teams like us who are safe but with little to play for typically tail off. We are in the group that everyone wants to play now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said: I think we'll finish 11th, so many below us will be fighting for points in the run in, teams like us who are safe but with little to play for typically tail off. Yeah I somewhat agree, I’m just hoping that some of them know they are playing for their futures at Villa because they all know this will be the first big transfer window Emery has to make changes in the summer, and he will, and their places are under pressure. Just hoping to get that 10th place, it would be so nice to finish top half. Edited March 16, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I just want this season to be over with. Far too much damage was done by the previous clown who was here. Can't wait to see what Unai can do with his own players and a fresh slate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I think Fulham are there to be overtaken, they've overperformed relative to their numbers for much of the season and you'd normally expect that to level out as things play out. Kind of feel like anything beyond that would be a bit of a bonus, I'd be happy with a top 10 finish for the first time in god knows how long considering how poor of a start it was pre-Emery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted March 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) double postage.... Edited March 16, 2023 by romavillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted March 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2023 On 08/03/2023 at 14:29, tomsky_11 said: If Fulham, Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton continue on the same ppg, and we continue on Emery's amazing 1.83ppg, then end of the season that would mean... Brighton 63 pts Brentford 59 pts Aston Villa 56 pts Fulham 55 pts Chelsea 50 pts Which would see us squeak 9th. I've rounded down, even when it was .96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 hours ago, romavillan said: If Fulham, Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton continue on the same ppg, and we continue on Emery's amazing 1.83ppg, then end of the season that would mean... Brighton 63 pts Brentford 59 pts Aston Villa 56 pts Fulham 55 pts Chelsea 50 pts Which would see us squeak 9th. I've rounded down, even when it was .96. Updated for last night's games. Added projection for finish at season to date ppg and also at ppg of current manager for remainder of season. The latter sees a small points drop for Brighton and Chelsea and us still leapfrogging both Chelsea and Fulham into 9th. Have also added the remaining schedule strengths of each side according to average position of opponent in current ppg table. While a few of us (myself included) are expecting Fulham to tail off, their remaining schedule looks by this method the strongest, though they do have fewer games remaining than all but Spurs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Updated for last night's games. Added projection for finish at season to date ppg and also at ppg of current manager for remainder of season. The latter sees a small points drop for Brighton and Chelsea and us still leapfrogging both Chelsea and Fulham into 9th. Have also added the remaining schedule strengths of each side according to average position of opponent in current ppg table. While a few of us (myself included) are expecting Fulham to tail off, their remaining schedule looks by this method the strongest, though they do have fewer games remaining than all but Spurs. With Brentfords tricky away games and the fact they've been over performing I can see them tailing off quite a bit. Chelsea should improve, Brighton and Fulham will both regress to their mean slightly, but with Fulham's easier run they shouldn't really drop much. I also suspect we won't maintain 1.8. Could find it being very tight between 11th and 7th at the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, villakram said: Missing out on Europe, We were never in the race to miss out. Said it for months. We have nowhere near the squad for it in any case. Hopefully within the next few years we can start to push for that 6th/7th spot but it's going to be very difficult. Aside from the 7 obvious ones, you now have the likes of Brighton and Brentford to contend with. Can't help thinking we got these owners 10 years too late, as I think even getting a regular top half finish is going to be a huge ask nowadays. What's really annoying, is that whilst we have been told we plan to put together a "sustainable" model, lesser teams have flown past us. Again. I genuinely think our best hope to get into Europe in the next 5 years will be to win a trophy and yet every time we enter one, we chuck it away. Whilst Europe may be possible in the coming years via a 6th or 7th placed finish, I believe its never been harder and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we didn't get a single top 7 finish for a very long time. Then again, maybe we will? Edited March 16, 2023 by GlobalVillan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Thing is people can say all they like: "We were never in the race", "Nowhere near", "Aren't ready".... But Villa are very much still in the race, so many points to play for and we still have to play Newcastle, Fulham, Brentford and Brighton. On that logic we can still have a major say in who finishes top ten and Europe. It will likely all come down to winning our last game against Brighton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Thing is people can say all they like: "We were never in the race", "Nowhere near", "Aren't ready".... But Villa are very much still in the race, so many points to play for and we still have to play Newcastle, Fulham, Brentford and Brighton. On that logic we can still have a major say in who finishes top ten and Europe. It will likely all come down to winning our last game against Brighton. Sure we are still in the race but if we are honest we are close to being the rank outsider to be Top 7. If they did percentages we’d probably be much less than 5% of it happening because so many things would have to happen to get us there, that why we aren’t really in the race. We can affect it, try for it but so many things need to happen for us to get it but we will have influence on it as you say. Edit: 55 points would be a good achievement for us now. Brighton who are 7th, have 13 games left and if they get 13 points, thus 1ppg will get 55 points and they are playing much better than 1ppg. Edited March 16, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 48 minutes ago, MrBlack said: With Brentfords tricky away games and the fact they've been over performing I can see them tailing off quite a bit. Would you rather have a tricky home or away run? I'd have thought given that on average teams take around 50% more points home than away, you'd rather have the easy home run, as it's a 50% bump on a higher expected points return? 57 minutes ago, MrBlack said: Chelsea should improve Chelsea's run in is terrible. I think they'll improve, but any improvement is from a low bar for them. Can't see them doing anywhere near enough to threaten top 7. An advantage for them is that their easier games at home include 5 of the other 7 teams between 4th and 11th. Though their only victory against any of these sides this season was against us under Gerrard, when they were arguably the worst side. 1 hour ago, MrBlack said: Brighton and Fulham will both regress to their mean slightly, but with Fulham's easier run they shouldn't really drop much. Fulham better run could be looked at as a lot of games against relegation threatened teams. Their other games are away at us and Liverpool, who are arguably both better than current league position, plus the top three (they've not earned a point in 7 games against the current top 5 so far this season). It's tougher than it initially looks. Can't see Brighton dropping below 60 at this point. 1 hour ago, MrBlack said: I also suspect we won't maintain 1.8. Nope, probably not. Our remaining fixtures look harder than Emery's to date (avg current position played is 10.5, 10.3 home and 10.7 away so pretty reflective of difficulty over an entire season). But I don't think the drop will be much, maybe 1.5ppg for remainder of season which gets us to 53. 1 hour ago, MrBlack said: Could find it being very tight between 11th and 7th at the end of the season. Personally think it's going to be 8th-11th (us, Brentford, Fulham, Chelsea) then a gap to 7th with them to 4th also being tight. 1 hour ago, GlobalVillan said: We were never in the race to miss out. Said it for months. We have nowhere near the squad for it in any case. If you compare us under Emery to the other sides 4th to 11th under their current managers this season, we are ahead of everyone but Spurs (who are only ahead of us by the equivalent of 0.3 points over an entire season). We've got a lot of good youth players, like A Ramsey, Archer, Iroegbunam that could be integrated into the side better with the additional fixtures. And presumably money to spend this summer to get the squad more ready, while european football might also expand our range of options in terms of who we could buy. If we somehow qualified this season we'd absolutely be ready for it IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Thing is people can say all they like: "We were never in the race", "Nowhere near", "Aren't ready".... But Villa are very much still in the race, so many points to play for and we still have to play Newcastle, Fulham, Brentford and Brighton. On that logic we can still have a major say in who finishes top ten and Europe. It will likely all come down to winning our last game against Brighton. We haven't even been in the top half this season and you think we are in the race for Europe? Personally I think that's just wishful thinking. I'd be chuffed with 10th as I've said all season but I have my doubts as to achieving that. On your last point, you think it's "likely" that qualifying for Europe will come down to our home game against Brighton? I think that's extremely UNLIKELY for about a million reasons. I don't even think Brighton will qualify for Europe for a start, the usual top 6 plus Newcastle will finish top 7 and I'd be thrilled if we finish within 10 points of a European place. I fear there are some wildly unrealistic expectations going on here and usually that manifests with fans moaning and complaining every time we pass backwards or mishit a cross. Emery is doing well and in the coming years we may be in the conversation but it won't be this year and absolutely not because of our game against Brighton. That game will be one of many midtable clashes that had no bearing on anything. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, nick76 said: Sure we are still in the race Yup, that's all I was saying really.... 6 hours ago, GlobalVillan said: We haven't even been in the top half this season and you think we are in the race for Europe? Personally I think that's just wishful thinking. I'd be chuffed with 10th as I've said all season but I have my doubts as to achieving that. On your last point, you think it's "likely" that qualifying for Europe will come down to our home game against Brighton? I think that's extremely UNLIKELY for about a million reasons. I don't even think Brighton will qualify for Europe for a start, the usual top 6 plus Newcastle will finish top 7 and I'd be thrilled if we finish within 10 points of a European place. I fear there are some wildly unrealistic expectations going on here and usually that manifests with fans moaning and complaining every time we pass backwards or mishit a cross. Emery is doing well and in the coming years we may be in the conversation but it won't be this year and absolutely not because of our game against Brighton. That game will be one of many midtable clashes that had no bearing on anything. All very presumptive, lots of "I think...." and the form table nor Emery will listen to your negativity. They will all still be aiming for Europe. It's positivity. Thing is the league is close around the places sixth to tenth or perhaps fifth to eleventh...a couple of back to back wins elevates Villa right in there. Relegation is a close one too...just the like the battle for Europe. Hence likely to remain close right up to the last game and three points could massive if it is all still rather close. Teams above Villa are faltering and we are keeping form. I'd sure like to hear those million reasons Edited March 16, 2023 by Zhan_Zhuang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Yup, that's all I was saying really.... All very presumptive, lots of "I think...." and the form table nor Emery will listen to your negativity. They will all still be aiming for Europe. It's positivity. Thing is the league is close around the places sixth to tenth or perhaps fifth to eleventh...a couple of back to back wins elevates Villa right in there. Relegation is a close one too...just the like the battle for Europe. Hence likely to remain close right up to the last game and three points could massive if it is all still rather close. Teams above Villa are faltering and we are keeping form. I'd sure like to hear those million reasons Negativity? You see, that really frustrates me. Just because my head isn't in the clouds with unrealistic expectations, it doesn't mean its negativity. Its called reality. I don't think we will win the title next year either. Is that also negativity? For you to suggest us "likely" that the race for Europe will come down to the Villa v Brighton game in May isn't just optimistic, it's patently absurd. Could it happen, I suppose so. Is it likely? Of course it isn't. We are 30/1 to finish in the top 7. If you think it's that likely then you should sell everything you own and get down the bookies. And if you don't do that then I'd like to know why the negativity. Being realistic and managing expectations is not being negative and you shouldn't go around dressing it up as such. Not being happy clapper levels of delusional does not make someone a worse fan. In fact, unrealistic expectations amongst a fan base can, and does, have a negative effect, as I stated in my post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Yup, that's all I was saying really.... All very presumptive, lots of "I think...." and the form table nor Emery will listen to your negativity. They will all still be aiming for Europe. It's positivity. Thing is the league is close around the places sixth to tenth or perhaps fifth to eleventh...a couple of back to back wins elevates Villa right in there. Relegation is a close one too...just the like the battle for Europe. Hence likely to remain close right up to the last game and three points could massive if it is all still rather close. Teams above Villa are faltering and we are keeping form. I'd sure like to hear those million reasons It's not negativity just because people have a different view. We have 35 points after 26 games with 12 games left, if we average 1.67 points per game for those remaining games we will get 55 points which will be a fair haul for us it means that Brighton ONLY needs 13 points from 13 games thus 1 ppg to get the same amount of points which obviously they are far exceeding that run rate at moment and if anything are looking stronger. Liverpool despite not playing well are (in the league) 4 wins, a draw and a loss in the last 6 games and 7 points ahead. So aside from Fulham, which clubs are faltering? I assume you might say Newcastle but they are 9 points ahead, a game in hand and 26 goal difference better than us...that's huge with only a third of the season left. So.... Liverpool are 7 points ahead, 13 points in the last six games at the run rate of 2.16 ppg and they arent even playing well Brighton are 7 points ahead, 1.833 ppg in the last six games and flying at the moment and a game in hand Brentford are 6 points ahead, 1.833 ppg in the last six games... We only have 7 points in the last 6 games but that includes games against Man City and Arsenal, but otherwise we are in really good form but there are a million reasons why we are not close to Europe as GV says, we need 4 teams to fall below us who have far better goals differences than us (Liverpool +25, Brighton +22, Brentford +16 than our goals difference), Brighton have a game in hand over us and all have more points than us and even have better ppg in the latest form. Additionally Liverpool and Chelsea arent playing well but still picking up ppg equivalent or better than us in the last six games and have much better squads so if they do start playing well will continue or beat that current ppg. Brighton are flying and are very impressive, Brentford continue to pick up a win every other game. This then assumes we really continue to fly, and arguably we really need to overachieve in the next 12 games to get close to 60 points to achieve that 7th place spot. I think Emery is brilliant but we started so far behind because of Gerrard that to think we have a chance of top 7 now is fantasy land...a strong finish to the season and getting into the Top 10 will be a strong finish. To think the Villa v Brighton game could be a decider just seems fantasy land and Brighton to collapse before then...7 points, a game in hand and 22 goal difference puts Brighton probably at >95% of being above us in the league. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 7 hours ago, GlobalVillan said: Negativity? You see, that really frustrates me. Just because my head isn't in the clouds with unrealistic expectations, it doesn't mean its negativity. Its called reality. I don't think we will win the title next year either. Is that also negativity? For you to suggest us "likely" that the race for Europe will come down to the Villa v Brighton game in May isn't just optimistic, it's patently absurd. Could it happen, I suppose so. Is it likely? Of course it isn't. We are 30/1 to finish in the top 7. If you think it's that likely then you should sell everything you own and get down the bookies. And if you don't do that then I'd like to know why the negativity. Being realistic and managing expectations is not being negative and you shouldn't go around dressing it up as such. Not being happy clapper levels of delusional does not make someone a worse fan. In fact, unrealistic expectations amongst a fan base can, and does, have a negative effect, as I stated in my post. Add in hypercritical too whilst we are at it... "Head in the Clouds" WTF? Villa are seven points off seventh with 36 points to play for. Presumably you've seen the form table? Others above and around us are losing form. It's mathematically possibly, no need to say much more or rant and rave. By the way who said anything about who was a better fan? You went there.... Nor did I say anything about winning the league, sounds like you are the delusional one making up stuff.... Then you go with the Happy Clapper, sweet....the last ten years have been doom-laden. Cheer up, smile. It's only football. 3 hours ago, nick76 said: It's not negativity just because people have a different view. We have 35 points after 26 games with 12 games left, if we average 1.67 points per game for those remaining games we will get 55 points which will be a fair haul for us it means that Brighton ONLY needs 13 points from 13 games thus 1 ppg to get the same amount of points which obviously they are far exceeding that run rate at moment and if anything are looking stronger. Liverpool despite not playing well are (in the league) 4 wins, a draw and a loss in the last 6 games and 7 points ahead. So aside from Fulham, which clubs are faltering? I assume you might say Newcastle but they are 9 points ahead, a game in hand and 26 goal difference better than us...that's huge with only a third of the season left. So.... Liverpool are 7 points ahead, 13 points in the last six games at the run rate of 2.16 ppg and they arent even playing well Brighton are 7 points ahead, 1.833 ppg in the last six games and flying at the moment and a game in hand Brentford are 6 points ahead, 1.833 ppg in the last six games... We only have 7 points in the last 6 games but that includes games against Man City and Arsenal, but otherwise we are in really good form but there are a million reasons why we are not close to Europe as GV says, we need 4 teams to fall below us who have far better goals differences than us (Liverpool +25, Brighton +22, Brentford +16 than our goals difference), Brighton have a game in hand over us and all have more points than us and even have better ppg in the latest form. Additionally Liverpool and Chelsea arent playing well but still picking up ppg equivalent or better than us in the last six games and have much better squads so if they do start playing well will continue or beat that current ppg. Brighton are flying and are very impressive, Brentford continue to pick up a win every other game. This then assumes we really continue to fly, and arguably we really need to overachieve in the next 12 games to get close to 60 points to achieve that 7th place spot. I think Emery is brilliant but we started so far behind because of Gerrard that to think we have a chance of top 7 now is fantasy land...a strong finish to the season and getting into the Top 10 will be a strong finish. To think the Villa v Brighton game could be a decider just seems fantasy land and Brighton to collapse before then...7 points, a game in hand and 22 goal difference puts Brighton probably at >95% of being above us in the league. We have to play many of those teams, hence the reason why it's possible. As the form table suggests we are in good shape and capable of winning those games. It often seems like people want us to fail, good job you aren't managing Aston Villa. Everything from the top down is always super-positive. Of course it's negative to say something isn't possible when it actually is. It could also be called cynical and pessimistic... Why would I choose that perception when a more positive one is still achievable? I'm done, the narrative is circular. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Add in hypercritical too whilst we are at it... "Head in the Clouds" WTF? Villa are seven points off seventh with 36 points to play for. Presumably you've seen the form table? Others above and around us are losing form. It's mathematically possibly, no need to say much more or rant and rave. By the way who said anything about who was a better fan? You went there.... Nor did I say anything about winning the league, sounds like you are the delusional one making up stuff.... Then you go with the Happy Clapper, sweet....the last ten years have been doom-laden. Cheer up, smile. It's only football. We have to play many of those teams, hence the reason why it's possible. As the form table suggests we are in good shape and capable of winning those games. It often seems like people want us to fail, good job you aren't managing Aston Villa. Everything from the top down is always super-positive. Of course it's negative to say something isn't possible when it actually is. It could also be called cynical and pessimistic... Why would I choose that perception when a more positive one is still achievable? I'm done, the narrative is circular. At no point did I say it wanst possible. In fact I clearly stated it WAS possible. It's just not likely. And that's the point I was making since you stated it was. Edited March 17, 2023 by GlobalVillan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said: At no point did I see it wanst possible. In fact I clearly stated it WAS possible. It's just not likely. And that's the point I was making since you stated it was. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: I choose positivity... Especially in the respect to 'hopefully' qualifying for Europe. Nor is it being a happy clapper or head in the clouds as you refer to... In the same manner, I choose being hopeful and excited for each game. I also understand the reality of our position, what is needed and all the factors that need to happen for us to attain Top 7. That isn’t being negative, it’s just assessing us, the other teams, us as a squad, form of the teams, coming from a fair distance back and the short amount of games left…a sense of realism. I’m hopeful of winning the lottery, dating Ana de Armas and retiring back to Sydney one day and I know the reality of those…the first two are head in the clouds but the third is a high possibility. I can have positivity on all those but the chances of each happening are very different…it’s not being negative to think that the first two aren’t going to happen, it’s just reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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