hippo Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, nick76 said: Just a quick thought. Based on everything we are likely to finish around top ten, maybe a few places higher, maybe a few places lower. That’s the 90% likely to happen scenario. My question though is which, if you were a betting company, was “realistically” more likely from a pure betting point of view rather than hope… 1) Gerrard achieves a top 7 finish next season or 2) Gerrard gets sacked at some point next season Again this is not your personal hope view but a betting view. I'd bet on neither. Mid table ish finish and Stevie G keeps his job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said: If you were a betting company you set your odds based purely on bets placed. They don’t have an army of football analysts or for that matter horse racing, cricket, golf, politics or anything else. The science is betting not opinions, no matter how valid through analysis they are. How to kill the vibe of my question mate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woody1000 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, nick76 said: How to kill the vibe of my question mate That will teach you for trying to spark a conversation Nick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, hippo said: I'd bet on neither. Mid table ish finish and Stevie G keeps his job. Anything above 14th would be spun as a moderately successful season. Gerrard would ask for more money for the team and if in the following season there is no more progression he may then be sacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaFaninLondon Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Around 60 points should be the aim. I've been going through the fixtures and I think 60 is achievable, although that is +15 points on last season which doesn't happen too often. At the minimum I think 55 points is what this squad is capable of. I've gone through the fixtures and I have us winning 17, drawing 9 and losing 12. I have us picking up 28 points from 16 games prior to the break for the World Cup which is four more points than we managed in those equivalent fixtures last season when we finished 14th so a fairly reasonable expectation given we want to do much better than last season. My predictions are fairly obvious ones, I haven't gone for us to beat any of the top 6 only taking a couple of draws against them, and got us drawing 4 times and losing twice against West Ham, Leicester and Newcastle. I think if we get the lower of what we should be aiming for (55) we should finish top half, if we get the higher (60+) then top 7 is achievable. So my predictions are obviously quite optimistic and as this is Villa then you can almost be certain they'll fail to live up to expectations, but based on what we should be looking for points-wise, 60 is absolutely not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Anything above 14th would be spun as a moderately successful season. Gerrard would ask for more money for the team and if in the following season there is no more progression he may then be sacked. It can be spun all it wants but it wont be accepted by the owners Bottom half is a sackable offence unless amazing circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Zatman said: It can be spun all it wants but it wont be accepted by the owners Bottom half is a sackable offence unless amazing circumstances What if finished bottom half but won a cup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonVillian Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Anything above 14th would be spun as a moderately successful season. Gerrard would ask for more money for the team and if in the following season there is no more progression he may then be sacked. I think the owners will be expecting top 10 this season to be honest. Don't think that would fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: What if finished bottom half but won a cup? Would depend still on where in bottom half.if 11th probably be fine, 15th would be shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Zatman said: Would depend still on where in bottom half.if 11th probably be fine, 15th would be shocking It would be but we haven’t won a cup in over 25 years. I’d take 15th and a trophy any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Vive_La_Villa said: It would be but we haven’t won a cup in over 25 years. I’d take 15th and a trophy any day. Would the owners? Massively increasing the wage bill to get further away from Champions League Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Zatman said: Would the owners? Massively increasing the wage bill to get further away from Champions League Probably not but it would get us in to Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Brentford, Palace, Brighton are teams we should finish ahead of. We are at least as good as Wolves and Newcastle on paper at least. West Ham are in Europe so might struggle to be consistent just like they and Leicester did last season. Things can happen, window not closed yet and yada yada but I'm certain everyone at the club, Gerrard included would see finishing outside the top-10 a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 I think most Villa fans would take finishing 15th and winning a Cup now, we haven't won a Cup in over twenty-five years and is something that needs addressing, for me winning a cup and finishing 17th would be a more succesful season than finishing say 7th, franky I would take it over finishing top four, as winning trophies is what it should be about. Also when you talk about final positions, the way those positions are achieved can have difference on how the season is perceived, if we were to finish say tenth after challenging around top eight for most of the season but dropping a few places towards the end then that season would be percieved differently to an alternative hypothetical season where we also finish tenth, but do so after being around say 15th or 16th for most of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Winning a cup but finishing 15th would be great. But I'd also probably sack the manager next season since it points to him not being able to handle the squad for both cup and league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: It would be but we haven’t won a cup in over 25 years. I’d take 15th and a trophy any day. Whatever context, 15th would be failure of the core part of the job, the league. It would most likely mean less points than last season which cannot be acceptable under any circumstances with the squad we have. It would have to be seen as failure. Winning a cup would be fantastic obviously and a great achievement but when you analyse the season, really poor performance over 38 games in the league couldnt be negated by success in half a dozen games in the cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, LondonVillian said: I think the owners will be expecting top 10 this season to be honest. Don't think that would fly. Could boil down to about 3-4 points. Is that sackable? Purslow has gone out of his way to bring Gerrard in. If bottom half is not acceptable then we will be looking at a new ceo, coach, and management team in the summer then. Can't see it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Finishing outside the top 10 is unacceptable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, useless said: I think most Villa fans would take finishing 15th and winning a Cup now I don’t believe that to be true. Under less ambitious owners I would maybe concede but under these owners fans are more ambitious so I don’t agree with your point and 15th wouldn’t be acceptable to most fans with a cup. They would be delighted with a cup but would want the manager out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Zatman said: Would the owners? Massively increasing the wage bill to get further away from Champions League Depends on how much you buy into the owners ambitions - sure the stated aim is Europe - but is that realistic ? - they publicly say that - but are they honestly expecting Europe anytime soon ? - if they do they are misguided IMO. For us to achieve Europe - it has to be that our team is greater than the sum of all the parts - it has to be a cohesive unit that just clicks. As it stands I think the amount of sheer talent on the books means we will pick up most of points by outgunning the smaller clubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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