Generic Virus Thread

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

It's never to my knowledge been claimed that it prevents infection.

My recollection is that it has been stated multiple times that it prevents infections, by the media, quoting SAGE. Stuff like (when we were first getting jabbed) “AZ gives 70% protection against getting infected and Pfizer gives 80% protection” (from memory). Given those figures are based on trials result statistics - i.e. out of 100 AZ jabbed people, only 30 showed any sign of infection, that seemed at the time very reassuring, and to be evidence based.

Maybe the media misreported, maybe (like I said) we need to be clear what we mean when we say “catch Covid”, but my perception has been that vaccinated people are less likely to become infected (“catch Covid”)

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

My recollection is that it has been stated multiple times that it prevents infections, by the media, quoting SAGE. Stuff like (when we were first getting jabbed) “AZ gives 70% protection against getting infected and Pfizer gives 80% protection” (from memory). Given those figures are based on trials result statistics - i.e. out of 100 AZ jabbed people, only 30 showed any sign of infection, that seemed at the time very reassuring, and to be evidence based.

Maybe the media misreported, maybe (like I said) we need to be clear what we mean when we say “catch Covid”, but my perception has been that vaccinated people are less likely to become infected (“catch Covid”)

You can be COVID positive and exhibit no symptoms at all. You still have the infection at that point and can spread it, though at a much reduced level. That has always been my understanding

I know plenty of people who have been COVID positive and exhibited no symptoms whatsoever, they've still had to isolate.

As I remember those efficacy percentages (they are about right from memory), they were about preventing hospitalisation and severe illness and not preventing you contracting Covid

 

[DCJonah]

4 hours ago, CVByrne said:

 

With people in Hospital with Covid a fraction of the previous peak it's hardly under massive pressure yet. Issue is more staff out atm with Covid who will be back soon.

The data from London is showing no wave of hospitalisations which is so far very good news about Omicron. I'd say by Fri we'll know if Omicron is the best news we've had since the Vaccines. Estimates from South Africa saying it's up 30 times less severe. That would be amazing news if the data from London backs that up.

The Sage modelling is clearly garbage because of the parameters they have used about severity and speed of spread. Modelling hospital admissions based on a 50% less severe disease with Omicron as the "best case". Why don't the use modelling for multiple down to 30x less severe and have that presented as the best case. Then see how the London data fits the different projections. 

So far from London data we've seen 2 things emerge. 1) Cases peaking quickly, 2) No spike in hospital admissions, just slow drift upwards.

If we see this data hold true for next 4 days then we know 1) The estimation of the number of cases we will see was again miles off. 2) The severity estimations are in line with South African data.

The Government are doing the right thing. They need to see this London data on hospital admissions. They were given projections on Monday 13th from Sage and they can see how the real data fits those projections before making a decision. 

 

I'm not sure of country wide issues. But GP's and hospitals in Birmingham certainly are. 

Like I said, have you been to A&E recently or needed an ambulance? It's absolutely ****. 

[The Fun Factory]

10 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I'm not sure of country wide issues. But GP's and hospitals in Birmingham certainly are. 

Like I said, have you been to A&E recently or needed an ambulance? It's absolutely ****. 

A friend of mine was in hospital recently. They said that  the person next to them in the ward tried to call for an ambulance and was told it would be a 12 hour wait.

[DCJonah]

2 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

A friend of mine was in hospital recently. They said that  the person next to them in the ward tried to call for an ambulance and was told it would be a 12 hour wait.

Yep, the system is absolutely broken. And people won't care until them or their loved ones need it in an emergency. 

[sidcow]

19 minutes ago, blandy said:

My recollection is that it has been stated multiple times that it prevents infections, by the media, quoting SAGE. Stuff like (when we were first getting jabbed) “AZ gives 70% protection against getting infected and Pfizer gives 80% protection” (from memory). Given those figures are based on trials result statistics - i.e. out of 100 AZ jabbed people, only 30 showed any sign of infection, that seemed at the time very reassuring, and to be evidence based.

Maybe the media misreported, maybe (like I said) we need to be clear what we mean when we say “catch Covid”, but my perception has been that vaccinated people are less likely to become infected (“catch Covid”)

Those high percentages have always stated as against SERIOUS disease, at least in all reports I've seen.  But people latch on to it and say all my mates have been jabbed but still got it so it proves the jabs are rubbish. At the same time saying they don't know anyone who's got seriously ill so the disease can't be that bad

I've seen reports that vaccines help prevent transmission but never seen stats so I assume they are quite low.  I think the message is put out that it stops transmission because even if it only stops eg 2% of transmissions that still equates to a hell of a lot of real world infections, but if you said 2% a load of throbbers would jump on it saying it proves vaccines are rubbish. 

[SuperTed]

Tested positive this morning so that’s my Christmas ruined.

 

When will it end! 

[El Zen]

7 minutes ago, SuperTed said:

Tested positive this morning so that’s my Christmas ruined.

 

When will it end! 

Sorry to hear that. I’m out of isolation on Thursday, but half expecting Zen Jr’s test to come back positive today, which would mean we’re spending another few days to ourselves, missing xmas with the rest of the family. 

[Xann]

30 minutes ago, blandy said:

So what should be done about it?  Social media is full of people saying don’t trust the BBC it’s biased, for example. It’s full of people saying “the state should leave people to make their own decisions” and shouting “censorship” and “free speech”. Many of those people are well meaning, but, how to put this politely, unwilling or unable to consider the wider picture around maintaining trust in expertise, around collective interest or around the role of “the state” in our lives. 

Oof, there's a question.

The answer's a tome, I think Pete?

One thing I'm certain of, whilst the Tories are in we're getting further away from a solution.

Education should be the start, but obviously schools being turned into academies and run for profit rather than enabling sound critical thinking, suits the Eton chums down to the ground.

Since you've asked, I should offer something positive?

Hmmm? So what's reasonable short term patch, before our influence savvy generation saves us in 2040?

A hitlist of utter words removed?  Doomsday weapon?

Let's start small, with the people we can control and with legislation most sides can get on with.

If a media outlet (maybe social media pages with sizeable followings too) is found to be publishing erroneous information? The correction and apology needs to be given equal or greater standing to the original article.

You put bullshit on your front page, the retraction also goes on your front page.

Tiny step, but a good one I think?

[The Fun Factory]

21 minutes ago, SuperTed said:

Tested positive this morning so that’s my Christmas ruined.

 

When will it end! 

Sorry to hear that

[SuperTed]

13 minutes ago, El Zen said:

Sorry to hear that. I’m out of isolation on Thursday, but half expecting Zen Jr’s test to come back positive today, which would mean we’re spending another few days to ourselves, missing xmas with the rest of the family. 

Hope you and your lad are okay mate. Fingers crossed he doesn’t test positive and you can have some semblance of a Christmas 

[El Zen]

26 minutes ago, SuperTed said:

Hope you and your lad are okay mate. Fingers crossed he doesn’t test positive and you can have some semblance of a Christmas 

Thanks. We’re absolutely fine. All symptoms have passed for me, and were very mild anyway, and the boy has been largely unsymptomatic, but has a touch of the sniffles. 

But if his test is positive, we’ll almost certainly be spending xmas eve isolating. 

[MCU]

59 minutes ago, SuperTed said:

Tested positive this morning so that’s my Christmas ruined.

 

When will it end! 

How you feeling?

[blandy]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

As I remember those efficacy percentages (they are about right from memory), they were about preventing hospitalisation and severe illness and not preventing you contracting Covid

Right. Now I'm on a computer, I did a yahooglemooney and found this from the US CDC. There's loads of other studies showing the same/similar.

Quote

CDC COVID-19 Study Shows mRNA Vaccines Reduce Risk of Infection by 91 Percent for Fully Vaccinated People

Vaccination Makes Illness Milder, Shorter for the Few Vaccinated People Who Do Get COVID-19

A new CDC study finds the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the Food and Drug Administration (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) reduce the risk of infection by 91 percent for fully vaccinated people. This adds to the growing body of real-world evidence of their effectiveness. Importantly, this study also is among the first to show that mRNA vaccination benefits people who get COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated (14 or more days after dose 2) or partially vaccinated (14 or more days after dose 1 to 13 days after dose 2).

“COVID-19 vaccines are a critical tool in overcoming this pandemic,” said CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH. “Findings from the extended timeframe of this study add to accumulating evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective and should prevent most infections — but that fully vaccinated people who still get COVID-19 are likely to have milder, shorter illness and appear to be less likely to spread the virus to others. These benefits are another important reason to get vaccinated.”

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

Those high percentages have always stated as against SERIOUS disease, at least in all reports I've seen.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm

Quote

During December 14, 2020–April 10, 2021, data from the HEROES-RECOVER Cohorts,* a network of prospective cohorts among frontline workers, showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were approximately 90% effective in preventing symptomatic and asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in real-world conditions (1,2). 

 

[sidcow]

7 minutes ago, blandy said:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm

 

OK, I've not seen that type of claim before.

Clearly bollocks though

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Xann said:

Oof, there's a question.

The answer's a tome, I think Pete?

One thing I'm certain of, whilst the Tories are in we're getting further away from a solution.

Education should be the start, but obviously schools being turned into academies and run for profit rather than enabling sound critical thinking, suits the Eton chums down to the ground.

Since you've asked, I should offer something positive?

Hmmm? So what's reasonable short term patch, before our influence savvy generation saves us in 2040?

A hitlist of utter words removed?  Doomsday weapon?

Let's start small, with the people we can control and with legislation most sides can get on with.

If a media outlet (maybe social media pages with sizeable followings too) is found to be publishing erroneous information? The correction and apology needs to be given equal or greater standing to the original article.

You put bullshit on your front page, the retraction also goes on your front page.

Tiny step, but a good one I think?

Yeah, it would be a start. Covid misinformation, particularly deliberately placed, knowingly false stuff is not the only problem, obviously. There's the wider political and societal stuff.

Personally I separate out things like "schools being turned into academies and run for profit rather than enabling sound critical thinking" because I think the two things are seperate. It's not my belief that critical thinking is only taught or possible in state run schools, for example. You're right around lack of critical thinking, and you're right about privatisation, but I don't think they are directly linked. "Teaching a misplaced sense of entitlement" yes, absolutely.

On legislation, Government needs to be really strict with social media companies, and they're not. "Take this shit down immediately it's put up, or face severe penalties" is more my line of thinking.

On China and Russia, I think it's the case that the US was very strong with China on Computer hacking and so on. The same could apply to bot farms spreading Covid, or other misinformation, from Russia or elsewhere. You're right that the Tories are too tied in to Russian money to act effectively if at all, so getting the baby eaters out will be a start. And not having an instinctive Russian sympathiser as Labour leader is also a good thing, I think (sorry).

But yeah, it's awfully difficult and long term to get a better informed population, while at the same time allowing the state to be more restrictive in some areas of media life and to remove vested interests and dirty money from it all.

But it's too important not to try. How many people have dies as a result of Covid misinformation leading to them not getting the vaccine? It's not a small number.

[blandy]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Clearly bollocks though

Tongue in cheek?

It's clearly not bollocks.

[villakram]

The massive outbreaks in highly vaccinated locals around the world must be ignored. Instead, let's concentrate on a specific study with a specific population at a specific time in a specific area with specific issues. Then we can all feel better.

[CVByrne]

2 hours ago, DCJonah said:

I'm not sure of country wide issues. But GP's and hospitals in Birmingham certainly are. 

Like I said, have you been to A&E recently or needed an ambulance? It's absolutely ****. 

No but my friend is an A&E doctor in London. She was saying it was very busy right now but it is because of a backlog of surgeries that they had to juggle A&E patients with and trying to plan for a surge in hospitalisations meant they've had to cancel many of those surgeries to be prepared.