Genie Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 3 hours ago, sne said: Over 100k confirmed cases world wide now Around 60,000 cured. Ratio of infected to cured getting smaller? Qty of infected around 40,000, less than it was a week ago I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, coda said: South Korea has tested 140,000 with mortality rate of 0.6%. UK has tested about 28,000 with 2 deaths = 0.007% But I d agree S Korea is a more useful guide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Just now, Genie said: Around 60,000 cured. Ratio of infected to cured getting smaller? Qty of infected around 40,000, less than it was a week ago I think. Again you can’t make that assumption, it could be going crazy right now in the US or Indonesia with thousands more infected but we just don’t know about it because they are not testing people in those countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, bickster said: UK has tested about 28,000 with 2 deaths = 0.007% But I d agree S Korea is a more useful guide Surely a mortality rate should be expressed as a percentage of those people who catch the illness? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 6, 2020 Just now, Risso said: Surely a mortality rate should be expressed as a percentage of those people who catch the illness? You are of course correct. But even that's only currently around 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1% is going to translate into a lot of dead old people if this goes, er, viral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 I work at a large insurance/mortgage provider in Solihull and there are emails preparing us to remain at home. An over reaction but I will take it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bickster Posted March 6, 2020 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Risso said: 1% is going to translate into a lot of dead old people if this goes, er, viral. Agreed, my only was in comparison to the 3.4 or whatever it was Lots of dead Tory voters and lots of dead Brexiteers Less pensions to pay Reduce House prices, especially bungalows Just trying to stay positive 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, bickster said: You are of course correct. But even that's only currently around 1% I might have misunderstood the post from coda but I thought he was saying that in South Korea they have tested 180000 people (i.e. a relatively big sample size) and of the numbers of people they have found carrying the virus only 0.6% were dying. If we don’t know how many people have the virus (and we don’t know that because we’re not testing widely enough) then we can’t know the mortality rate and it is likely lower than the values stated. Korea seems like it is doing the best at finding out a true number though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Apart from the old and vulnerable, The ignorant and the foolish will suffer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, bickster said: Agreed, my only was in comparison to the 3.4 or whatever it was Lots of dead Tory voters and lots of dead Brexiteers Less pensions to pay Reduce House prices, especially bungalows Just trying to stay positive Bye bye boomers baby goodbye!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 minute ago, LondonLax said: and we don’t know that because we’re not testing widely enough We've actually tested 28,000 people, thats a lot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 I love working for a small firm. The M.D. has told me today he doesn’t want me risking my health on the tube, I’m to use taxis, regardless of the expense. So that’s a train in to Paddington and then taxis around town. I’m saved! He’s also given me a water bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 59 minutes ago, bickster said: UK has tested about 28,000 with 2 deaths = 0.007% But I d agree S Korea is a more useful guide Hope so. It’s strange how different the figures in Italy are. If you look at today’s totals there, it’s 4636 infected and 197 deaths. A straightforward comparison gives you a case fatality rate (CFR) of 4.25%. One of the earlier videos Dr John Campbell did on YouTube said to get a more accurate CFR you needed to compare data points differently, because the severe complications leading to death occurred 7-21 days after infection. Looking again at the Italy figures, on Thursday 27th of Feb the total number of detected infections was 655. Seven days later on Thursday 5th of March, the total number of deaths was 148. Using those figures produces a CFR of 22.59%. Whether that’s the correct methodology or not, there does seem to be something qualitatively different about the virus in Italy. It can’t simply be down to demographic profile as the causal factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Seat68 said: I work at a large insurance/mortgage provider in Solihull and there are emails preparing us to remain at home. An over reaction but I will take it. Our workplace has already issued emails to encourage people to work from home. 2 people who work for us have it (1 in the UK) I've been WFH all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 6, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 6, 2020 To be completely honest mortality rates can only be accurately determined after the fact, everything right now is guesswork to some extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kingman said: Bye bye boomers baby goodbye!.. I could do with a nice bungalow in the Cotswolds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) The wife had a text from the kids school today asking her to reply confirming her email address. It’s so if the school has to close at short notice they can email some work for the children. I guess they are poised for a situation over the weekend. Edited March 6, 2020 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Awol said: Hope so. It’s strange how different the figures in Italy are. If you look at today’s totals there, it’s 4636 infected and 197 deaths. A straightforward comparison gives you a case fatality rate (CFR) of 4.25%. One of the earlier videos Dr John Campbell did on YouTube said to get a more accurate CFR you needed to compare data points differently, because the severe complications leading to death occurred 7-21 days after infection. Looking again at the Italy figures, on Thursday 27th of Feb the total number of detected infections was 655. Seven days later on Thursday 5th of March, the total number of deaths was 148. Using those figures produces a CFR of 22.59%. Whether that’s the correct methodology or not, there does seem to be something qualitatively different about the virus in Italy. It can’t simply be down to demographic profile as the causal factor. Looks like the Chinese report from some weeks ago that it could be have some form of airborne/aerosol spread might be right: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/06/air-conditioning-systems-could-spread-coronavirus-research-shows/ Also, according to ITN news report just now, 10% of Italian patients, not 5% quoted elsewhere, require intensive care and most of them require ventilation. Guess it might be due to the age demographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, bickster said: To be completely honest mortality rates can only be accurately determined after the fact, everything right now is guesswork to some extent This site is just about the most accurate for live updates mate. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-growth-outchina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts