Israel, Palestine and Iran

[OutByEaster?]

So where are we on the ground today?

I read that the world leaders are all trying to get in and do their photo-op before the ground war starts, so it looks like that is now imminent. I presume the bombing is still continuing?

Do we know how evacuated the North Gaza evacuation has been? How many people are still in there?

The BBC had reports of people fighting over food and water in Southern Gaza, hopefully that's not a precursor to worse to come.

It looks like the Lebanon/Israel border is the driest of dry tinder and might be the site of something nasty any moment too - is that likely?

With Iran pontificating and the most powerful military nation in history hovering offshore - how likely is the whole thing likely to go bank anytime soon?

IT's hard to find anything resembling a hope at the moment isn't it?

 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

I really like this from the club. As balanced as I think you could get given the circumstances.

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, momo said:

Do you want me to get DNA samples? Witnesses? Are you saying that France, Britain, Hungary and Germany has not banned the Palestinian flag? Are you saying that France, Britain, Hungary and Germany have not banned protests for Palestine? If so, you should get out of your own head and look at the society around you. You are just a villatalk admin. You don't hold the power to define what racism is.

As far as I gather from outside my granddaughter’s Jewish school in London this morning people are flying the Palestinian, Islamic Jihad and Hamas flags right in front of the police without repercussion. Your point doesn’t really seem true.

Edited October 19, 2023 by magnkarl

[OutByEaster?]

One of the things I've become more aware of over the course of the last couple of weeks is how little of a jewish community there is in Birmingham. There's a bigger population in London obviously, but Birmingham's low numbers are quite unusual nationally with 0.2% of the population identifying as Jewish - less than half the average (maybe 1,800 people in a big city) - there are fifteen times as many Sikhs here for example as jewish people.

I wonder if that affects my perception of the degree to which life is difficult for Jewish people at the moment, and the degree to which that perhaps differs to for example @magnkarl's experiences as a Jewish man living in London amongst a much more visible and perhaps more exposed Jewish community. 

I'm not sure what point I'm making really, just thinking out loud, but I guess perspectives can be different when it's not something you ever see around you.

[Marka Ragnos]

3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I'm not sure what point I'm making really, just thinking out loud, but I guess perspectives can be different when it's not something you ever see around you.

I really love your vulnerability and open-hearted sharing here. It's inspiring when someone is honestly trying to learn and figure out a confusing situation, and this certainly feels like one to me.

[DJBOB]

33 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

So where are we on the ground today?

I read that the world leaders are all trying to get in and do their photo-op before the ground war starts, so it looks like that is now imminent. I presume the bombing is still continuing?

Do we know how evacuated the North Gaza evacuation has been? How many people are still in there?

The BBC had reports of people fighting over food and water in Southern Gaza, hopefully that's not a precursor to worse to come.

It looks like the Lebanon/Israel border is the driest of dry tinder and might be the site of something nasty any moment too - is that likely?

With Iran pontificating and the most powerful military nation in history hovering offshore - how likely is the whole thing likely to go bank anytime soon?

IT's hard to find anything resembling a hope at the moment isn't it?

 

The US is probably hoping that their offshore presence will dissuade any significant ground attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Deterrence is probably their preferred positions because I really don't think the US can stomach boots on the ground. The populace is here is "happy" that the problem is half a world away seeing as how the federal government can barely function. I think this is the biggest wild card right now as it really becomes a question of how far do Hezbollah and by proxy, Iran, want to push this and does anyone think the US will interject themselves if a ground invasion occurs? Worst case scenario - Hezbollah commits significant forward movement into Israel and the US injects itself to conflagrate a full war.

Israel seems intent on invading and re-occupying at least northern Gaza. I'm not sure what the end game is here. Do they re-occupy northern Gaza, overthrown the current government and acquire the territory? Sounds disastrous. Do they "eliminate Hamas" and then leave to return to the status quo before 7/10? Fraught with problems. Do they pull a Russia and absorb Gaza? A hard ask with the Palestinians that are still there. Do they install their own puppet government and continue the brutal apartheid with control of the government in Gaza? Insurgency problems abound.

Iran I think is content to continue using proxies to commit small scale terror acts and continually provoke IDF reactions. The same misinformation bots that Russia deployed are on full effect here (see the Al-Alhi hospital). I'm not entirely sure misinformation campaign can force the West to force Israel into capitulating but they can certainly rile up all of the other surrounding nations to press for action against Israel.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

One of the things I've become more aware of over the course of the last couple of weeks is how little of a jewish community there is in Birmingham. There's a bigger population in London obviously, but Birmingham's low numbers are quite unusual nationally with 0.2% of the population identifying as Jewish - less than half the average (maybe 1,800 people in a big city) - there are fifteen times as many Sikhs here for example as jewish people.

I wonder if that affects my perception of the degree to which life is difficult for Jewish people at the moment, and the degree to which that perhaps differs to for example @magnkarl's experiences as a Jewish man living in London amongst a much more visible and perhaps more exposed Jewish community. 

I'm not sure what point I'm making really, just thinking out loud, but I guess perspectives can be different when it's not something you ever see around you.

I don’t knowingly have any Jewish friends, so yes, it can definitely be difficult to fully empathise with a daily discrimination as described that I just don’t get to witness. I have no idea on the number of Jewish people around here.

But it’s simpler than that isn’t it. Nobody anywhere should be discriminated against due to their colour or religion or whatever.

[Awol]

USS Carney just intercepted 2-3 anti ship missiles fired at her in the Red Sea from Yemen - will be Iran aligned Houthi rebels 

[magnkarl]

22 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

One of the things I've become more aware of over the course of the last couple of weeks is how little of a jewish community there is in Birmingham. There's a bigger population in London obviously, but Birmingham's low numbers are quite unusual nationally with 0.2% of the population identifying as Jewish - less than half the average (maybe 1,800 people in a big city) - there are fifteen times as many Sikhs here for example as jewish people.

I wonder if that affects my perception of the degree to which life is difficult for Jewish people at the moment, and the degree to which that perhaps differs to for example @magnkarl's experiences as a Jewish man living in London amongst a much more visible and perhaps more exposed Jewish community. 

I'm not sure what point I'm making really, just thinking out loud, but I guess perspectives can be different when it's not something you ever see around you.

I’m happy for your thoughts either way mate!

The Jewish community isn’t really big on replying to census questionnaires either way, as it has often led to the obvious throughout history, so the community in Birmingham is a lot larger than you think. It is often fairly mixed in with the local population where there isn’t a choice to go to Jewish specific schools and such.

I often try to talk to my daughter about not having her kids in the Jewish school as it often is targeted by various groups, but she thinks it’s a good idea. Generally the community isn’t all that big on indicating where our places of worship etc are either as we tend to not want to stand out. A lot of us don’t really go to synagogue to worship either, and prefer to do it at home. With the culture comes a lot of scepticism of people in power, internally including rabbis and the so called ‘council’.

PS: I don’t live in London, I’ll have you. I live 45 minutes outside

Edited October 19, 2023 by magnkarl

[TheAuthority]

@Awol Is there a chance that Hezzbollah will invade Northern Israel with troops?

I imagine that the IDF would be able to repel them with ease, or am I mistaken?

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, TheAuthority said:

@Awol Is there a chance that Hezzbollah will invade Northern Israel with troops?

I imagine that the IDF would be able to repel them with ease, or am I mistaken?

IDF have already taken out several atgm/artillery crews inside Lebanon/Syria, as per the usual ‘What stupid things did Russian troops do today’-channels on Reddit.

Hezbollah doesn’t have a hope in hell against Israel’s air power. 

[OutByEaster?]

15 minutes ago, Awol said:

USS Carney just intercepted 2-3 anti ship missiles fired at her in the Red Sea from Yemen - will be Iran aligned Houthi rebels 

Oh boy - that'll go well.

I often wonder with this type of thing - is their expectation that the missile will get through, or is it more a symbolic/political manoeuvre?

Ah well, perhaps the US will give the Saudi's a discount on some ordnance by way of reprisal.

The potential for this to get worse is quite worrying isn't it?

[villa4europe]

6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I’m happy for your thoughts either way mate!

The Jewish community isn’t really big on replying to census questionnaires either way, as it has often led to the obvious throughout history, so the community in Birmingham is a lot larger than you think. It is often fairly mixed in with the local population where there isn’t a choice to go to Jewish specific schools and such.

I often try to talk to my daughter about not having her kids in the Jewish school as it often is targeted by various groups, but she thinks it’s a good idea. Generally the community isn’t all that big on indicating where our places of worship etc are either as we tend to not want to stand out.

PS: I don’t live in London, I’ll have you. I live 45 minutes outside

Manchester has a large Jewish population doesn't it?

And you saying about it bring mixed it's one of those wierd things in life coming from an English town in the Midlands... I don't think I've ever knowingly met someone who is Jewish, seen some guys at airports and new York but never properly met or spoken to them

[Awol]

Just now, TheAuthority said:

@Awol Is there a chance that Hezzbollah will invade Northern Israel with troops?

I imagine that the IDF would be able to repel them with ease, or am I mistaken?

The only way they could invade (a major raid realistically) would be to catch the IDF unawares, as Hamas did from Gaza. What they do have in spades is indirect fire capability, so everything from mortars and artillery through to 100’s of 1000’s of rockets of various calibres. Not homemade efforts like Hamas, either. 

In addition we could expect them to now have an advanced UAV capability, including loitering munitions and larger one way (so called suicide) drones. They also have many thousands of anti tank guided munitions with ranges up to 5 or 6kms. 

[Awol]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

Oh boy - that'll go well.

I often wonder with this type of thing - is their expectation that the missile will get through, or is it more a symbolic/political manoeuvre?

Ah well, perhaps the Us will give the Saudi's a discount on some ordnance by way of reprisal.

The potential for this to get worse is quite worrying isn't it?

If a missile gets through, bonus. If not, we now have to think about convoying civilian vessels through southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. That soaks up resources that can’t deploy to either the Med, or Gulf of Oman to protect freedom of navigation through the Straits of Hormouz - in case Iran kicks of directly. 

The potential for a full regional conflict is the closest it’s been in my lifetime. 

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

If a missile gets through, bonus. If not, we now have to think about convoying civilian vessels through southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. That soaks up resources that can’t deploy to either the Med, or Gulf of Oman to protect freedom of navigation through the Straits of Hormouz - in case Iran kicks of directly. 

The potential for a full regional conflict is the closest it’s been in my lifetime. 

How’s the iron dome against Iranian loitering and suicide drones, you reckon?

[Awol]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

How’s the iron dome against Iranian loitering and suicide drones, you reckon?

No problem, so long as it has sufficient reloads. The aim of Hezbollah would be saturating Israeli air defenses. Iron Dome is designed to deal with dozens of rockets at a time, not thousands. 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, Awol said:

The potential for a full regional conflict is the closest it’s been in my lifetime. 

Time to fill up the car and get on a long fixed energy tariff.

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

No problem, so long as it has sufficient reloads. The aim of Hezbollah would be saturating Israeli air defenses. Iron Dome is designed to deal with dozens of rockets at a time, not thousands. 

I’m guessing we’ll see a lot more preliminary strikes from the IDF at Hezbollah launch sites and logistics then, and likely US backup if Hezbollah decides to ramp it up a notch?

[Awol]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

Time to fill up the car and get on a long fixed energy tariff.

I’ve actually been wondering whether some of the shuttle diplomacy recently has been trying to avoid a repeat of the 1973 oil embargo. Sunak doing the rounds is really important after they all cancelled seeing Biden. A chance for messages to be carried, received, and passed in all directions.