Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

During the missile attacked on Sevastopol it was rumoured that Ukrainian Special Forces were in the city.  

The Russian Army and Russian Police sent out security patrols.  

It will come as no surprise that both parties spent most of the night shooting at one another.  At least 4 dead.  

[bickster]

14 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

During the missile attacked on Sevastopol it was rumoured that Ukrainian Special Forces were in the city.  

The Russian Army and Russian Police sent out security patrols.  

It will come as no surprise that both parties spent most of the night shooting at one another.  At least 4 dead.  

Probably what the small arms firing in Moscow was all about too

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Quote

Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable to intensified attacks in the coming months.

As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again

In less than a year since the war began, Russia rebuilt trade in critical components by routing them through countries like Armenia and Turkey. U.S. and European regulators have been trying to work together to curb the export of chips to Russia, but have struggled to stop the flow to pass through countries with ties to Moscow.

Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war. As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html

[Spoony]

Long BAE Systems

[Genie]

17 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html

Can they afford it though? and if so for how long? 2m artillery shells must be mega money, on top of all the other war costs, and then the dip income.

[mjmooney]

Putin's basically having a toddler tantrum now. I can't have what I want, so I'm going to smash it to bits. 

[bickster]

So the story is that it was British Storm Shadows used on the missile attack on Sevastopol Navy Base, hence the Shiogu announcement today. They are clearly trying to claim that occupied Crimea isn't part of the conflict area  

Also the converse of what Shiogu said is obviously that they are ok with their use in the “conflict zone”

Yes, the invading force gets to decide where the zone of conflict is in a war and expects the defending forces to respect that… erm what

 

[LondonLax]

10 hours ago, Genie said:

Can they afford it though? and if so for how long? 2m artillery shells must be mega money, on top of all the other war costs, and then the dip income.

Oil prices have gone back up. They are selling oil again for higher than the supposed cap. Natural gas is still going to Europe. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

41 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Oil prices have gone back up. They are selling oil again for higher than the supposed cap. Natural gas is still going to Europe. 

Sanctions work.  There are always ways to circumnavigate them. But Russia income has fallen drastically whilst the cost of imports has risen drastically. 

The ruble exchange rate shows how bad its got.  Even with 12% interest rates and laws to prevent foreigners withdrawing capital from Russia, the ruble has halved in value in only 12 months.  It was 60 rubles to the pound.  Its now 120.  

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added sumfink

[LondonLax]

41 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Sanctions work.  There are always ways to circumnavigate them. But Russia income has fallen drastically whilst the cost of imports has risen drastically. 

The ruble exchange rate shows how bad its got.  Even with 12% interest rates and laws to prevent foreigners withdrawing capital from Russia, the ruble has halved in value in only 12 months.  It was 60 rubles to the pound.  Its now 120.  

 

Their income has increased recently with the oil price increase orchestrated by their pact with Saudi Arabia.

Watch for next year and the US election cycle. They will drive the oil price through the roof again to cause pain on US voters (and all of us), and this time the US has no strategic oil reserves left to bring it back down again. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

32 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Their income has increased recently with the oil price increase orchestrated by their pact with Saudi Arabia.

Watch for next year and the US election cycle. They will drive the oil price through the roof again to cause pain on US voters (and all of us), and this time the US has no strategic oil reserves left to bring it back down again. 

The only way to drive up prices is to reduce production.  If Russia reduces production it loses more money (proportionately) than every other oil producing nation.  

We are fast approaching the peak year for oil/gas usage.  Russia has wasted what should be its highest earning years.   

Russia is the largest country in the world, it has massive stocks of gas and oil.  Its got agricultural land, raw materials, ports, a space program, fishery, nuclear energy and a large cheap workforce.  It should be an economic super power.  Its not.  Its economy isn't as big as the tiny UK or a single US state like Texas.  

Russia can hurt the west economically in the short term.  But those short term gains are insignificant when you consider the long term damage it does to Russia. 

Would you invest in Russia when their currency is in free fall, your assets could be seized by Putin and you might fall out of a window if you refused to sell your assets at a knockdown price? 

The ruble is crashing against EVERY world currency.  Its not just the £, €, ¥ and $.  

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Spelling mishsteaks

[LondonLax]

14 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The only way to drive up prices is to reduce production.  If Russia reduces production it loses more money (proportionately) than every other oil producing nation.  

We are fast approaching the peak year for oil/gas usage.  Russia has wasted what should be its highest earning years.   

Russia is the largest country in the world, it has massive stocks of gas and oil.  Its got agricultural land, raw materials, ports, a space program, fishery, nuclear energy and a large cheap workforce.  It should be an economic super power.  Its not.  Its economy isn't as big as the tiny UK or a single US state like Texas.  

Russia can hurt the west economically in the short term.  But those short term gains are insignificant when you consider the long term damage it does to Russia. 

Would you invest in Russia when their currency is in free fall, your assets could be seized by Putin and you might fall out of a window if you refused to sell your assets at a knockdown price? 

The ruble is crashing against EVERY world currency.  Its not just the £, €, ¥ and $.  

 

 

I think they will be looking short term at influencing the US election cycle. Economic pain in the US next year will increase the chances of voters removing Biden. If that leads to the US reducing support for Ukraine it will be a price Russia will be willing to pay. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

10 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I think they will be looking short term at influencing the US election cycle. Economic pain in the US next year will increase the chances of voters removing Biden. If that leads to the US reducing support for Ukraine it will be a price Russia will be willing to pay. 

As I said. Short term success leading to long term failure.  

Ten years ago there were 50 ruble to the pound.  It hit 125 a few weeks ago.  That's not a sign of a healthy and well run economy.  It's a long term failure caused by thousands of bad decisions by Putin.  

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Genie]

Flipping heck, moments away from full blown WW3

Quote

A Russian pilot tried to shoot down an RAF surveillance plane after believing he had permission to fire, the BBC has learned.

The pilot fired two missiles, the first of which missed rather than malfunctioned as claimed at the time.

Russia had claimed the incident last September was caused by a "technical malfunction".

The UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) publicly accepted the Russian explanation.

But now three senior Western defence sources with knowledge of the incident have told the BBC that Russian communications intercepted by the RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft give a very different account from the official version.

The RAF plane - with a crew of up to 30 - was flying a surveillance mission over the Black Sea in international airspace on 29 September last year when it encountered two Russian SU-27 fighter jets.

The intercepted communications show that one of the Russian pilots thought he had been given permission to target the British aircraft, following an ambiguous command from a Russian ground station.

However, the second Russian pilot did not. He remonstrated and swore at his wingman when he fired the first missile.

The Rivet Joint is loaded with sensors to intercept communications. The RAF crew would have been able to listen in to the incident which could have resulted in their own deaths. 

The MoD will not release details of those communications.

Responding to these new revelations an MoD spokesperson said: "Our intent has always been to protect the safety of our operations, avoid unnecessary escalation and inform the public and international community."

link

[chrisp65]

33 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The only way to drive up prices is to reduce production.  If Russia reduces production it loses more money (proportionately) than every other oil producing nation.  

We are fast approaching the peak year for oil/gas usage.  Russia has wasted what should be its highest earning years.   

Russia is the largest country in the world, it has massive stocks of gas and oil.  Its got agricultural land, raw materials, ports, a space program, fishery, nuclear energy and a large cheap workforce.  It should be an economic super power.  Its not.  Its economy isn't as big as the tiny UK or a single US state like Texas.  

Russia can hurt the west economically in the short term.  But those short term gains are insignificant when you consider the long term damage it does to Russia. 

Would you invest in Russia when their currency is in free fall, your assets could be seized by Putin and you might fall out of a window if you refused to sell your assets at a knockdown price? 

The ruble is crashing against EVERY world currency.  Its not just the £, €, ¥ and $.  

 

 

…just on the approaching peak oil point. We obviously are approaching peak oil, but back in my student days I did a study that suggested peak oil was 1987. Then years later I was back in my old college and they were taking part in a multi uni study of when peak oil would be, and it was 2007.

I’d suggest the rolling back of the ice cap and advances in drilling technology is probably only going to help push the end of oil back another few decades.

Couple that with the Russian system not really being accountable for having to close down any level of state assistance for the people in order to divert resource and prioritise its number one goals and divert all state funds in to the war. They need more money, close down some far flung outpost hospitals or schools or whatever. They are working on a different metric to us and the people have a different pain threshold and a different level of expectation.

They can play a long grinding game. We get bored and don’t like petrol being £1.54

 

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

…just on the approaching peak oil point. We obviously are approaching peak oil, but back in my student days I did a study that suggested peak oil was 1987. Then years later I was back in my old college and they were taking part in a multi uni study of when peak oil would be, and it was 2007.

I’d suggest the rolling back of the ice cap and advances in drilling technology is probably only going to help push the end of oil back another few decades.

Couple that with the Russian system not really being accountable for having to close down any level of state assistance for the people in order to divert resource and prioritise its number one goals and divert all state funds in to the war. They need more money, close down some far flung outpost hospitals or schools or whatever. They are working on a different metric to us and the people have a different pain threshold and a different level of expectation.

They can play a long grinding game. We get bored and don’t like petrol being £1.54

 

I think it's real this time.

Petrol cars are going to be banned in most territories shortly, but even before that people are adopting them rapidly because they're just better.  And they will likely have price parity with ICE vehicles soon.  Very few people are going to pay more money for a worse product that costs more to run.

Oil fired boilers are likely to be banned in the near future, and again other than stories in The Sun/Telegraph/Mail/SKY people who use oil heaters are enthusiastic because they're a pain to refill and cost a ton to run.  Heat Pumps make more sense in every metric other than installation cost, and again that's going to plummet.

There have been many false dawns but this is the real deal, there is no turning back because the economics don't stack up to continue.

I genuinely think Russia knows this and the land grab is more about stealing fertile farming land and minerals than anything else.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by sidcow

[Genie]

Gas boilers are banned in new homes from 2025 too so that should have an impact.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

46 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

…just on the approaching peak oil point. We obviously are approaching peak oil, but back in my student days I did a study that suggested peak oil was 1987. Then years later I was back in my old college and they were taking part in a multi uni study of when peak oil would be, and it was 2007.

I’d suggest the rolling back of the ice cap and advances in drilling technology is probably only going to help push the end of oil back another few decades.

Couple that with the Russian system not really being accountable for having to close down any level of state assistance for the people in order to divert resource and prioritise its number one goals and divert all state funds in to the war. They need more money, close down some far flung outpost hospitals or schools or whatever. They are working on a different metric to us and the people have a different pain threshold and a different level of expectation.

They can play a long grinding game. We get bored and don’t like petrol being £1.54

 

Good points.  But.....

When a currency significantly drops in value it tends to recover by itself.  Imports become more expensive but exports become dirt cheap.  The increase in exports helps the economy and increases demand for the currency.  Thereby adding value to the currency. 

That isn't working with Russia.  The currency is tumbling and demand for their exports (however cheap) is very limited.   

Russia will (and already does) sacrifice state assistance for its population. That's why they have one of the lowest life expectancies in Europe.  

To wage war you need millions of young fit men who are willing to die for their country or thousands of young fit men using cutting edge weapons and technology. 

Our sanctions are making Russia take more and more extreme short term measures that will destroy their ability to wage war in the long term.  

The USSR was bigger than Russia, had more people, a bigger army, more resources and more allies.  Decades of sanctions brought it to it's knees.  When it fell its "allies" such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and many more joined the west and began distancing themselves from Russia.   Can Russia succeed where the USSR failed against a much larger west and maintain an real war at the same time?  Maybe.  But I think its demise will come much quicker.  

 

 

[villa89]

26 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think it's real this time.

There have been many false dawns but this is the real deal, there is no turning back because the economics don't stack up to continue.

The problem with peak oil is that countries like India, Pakistan, the entire continent of Africa, lots of the middle east and Asia won't be able to switch to heat pumps, renewables or electrification. They will buy up all the oil the west used to buy. Oil consumption might go down in first world countries but it will be replaced by growth elsewhere. 

Russia will be able to make money from oil and gas for a long long time.