Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[avfc1982am]

20 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I think sleepy Joe will be six foot under before this war ends. 

I think that's very much a possibility. 

They'll be rolling him out like that Harry Enfield sketch 'Mr Dead'...." He lives in a box and looks like a horse....he's dead of course". 

[TheAuthority]

5 hours ago, Enda said:

That might be true, but I think the simpler explanation is that they just don’t want to commit that much kit. Biden for example is under pressure from Republicans for spending so much on Ukraine in the first place.

Russians manipulation and infiltration (albeit surreptitiously) of the GOP has been one of the most brilliant pieces of warfare in modern history. Make the enemy tear itself apart.

[LondonLax]

There is also a strong subculture in the US of no longer wanting to be the ‘world’s police’ and have their military fund ‘forever wars’ in foreign lands all over the globe. 

After Afghanistan, Iraq etc there is a big group of people in the US who would like Europe to be sorted out by Europeans and not have to see the US get involved every time. 

I do have some sympathy with that, although it is unfortunate that they have now fallen under Trumps umbrella. 

[desensitized43]

14 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

There is also a strong subculture in the US of no longer wanting to be the ‘world’s police’ and have their military fund ‘forever wars’ in foreign lands all over the globe. 

After Afghanistan, Iraq etc there is a big group of people in the US who would like Europe to be sorted out by Europeans and not have to see the US get involved every time. 

I do have some sympathy with that, although it is unfortunate that they have now fallen under Trumps umbrella. 

There’s always that kind of element when you have world powers. They go through periods of activity and isolationism. We did the same thing when we were the dominant power.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

There is also a strong subculture in the US of no longer wanting to be the ‘world’s police’ and have their military fund ‘forever wars’ in foreign lands all over the globe. 

After Afghanistan, Iraq etc there is a big group of people in the US who would like Europe to be sorted out by Europeans and not have to see the US get involved every time. 

I do have some sympathy with that, although it is unfortunate that they have now fallen under Trumps umbrella. 

Hmmmm.

So they won't want any help from Europe when China start taking over the Pacific region. 

They'd prefer it if we kept our noses out of it and left them to go it alone. 

Maybe we'd better not send The Queen Elizabeth or Prince of Wales on any more Pacific tours through disputed waters. 

[LondonLax]

14 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Hmmmm.

So they won't want any help from Europe when China start taking over the Pacific region. 

They'd prefer it if we kept our noses out of it and left them to go it alone. 

Maybe we'd better not send The Queen Elizabeth or Prince of Wales on any more Pacific tours through disputed waters. 

It’s the US doing the heavy lifting in Ukraine and it will be the US fighting in Taiwan if it kicks off there.

There are plenty of Americans who don’t want the US to be the ‘world police’ though and see their military as overblown. They would rather the US takes a roll more like Canada on the world stage. 

[magnkarl]

As we seemed to discuss that it'll take long, it appears that Ukraine are going for the throat around Bakhmut.

Klischiivka (strongest defensive position in the area) is practically surrounded. It might be that the 8ish batallions waiting in the wings are due to go straight for Luhansk city.

[magnkarl]

13 hours ago, blandy said:

The thing is, as I see it anyway, that it's not "NATO" dragging its heels. It's up to individual nations to provide (or not) weapons and support. NATO is purely there as an organisation set up to protect member nations from aggression.

The next factor is the pretty parlous state of EUropean nations defence capability - there just isn't that much kit lying about which is easy to donate. A lot of what has been given is older kit that was in storage. There's not the capacity to provide a lot of kit that is used by European nations to form their own defence force's capabilities.

Then there's interoperability - like with Jets particularly - training pilots to fly and operate western jets and weapon systems is not a quick thing, wether they're RAF pilots or Ukrainians. And the same applies to groundcrew.

Then there's ITAR and export control laws, which are particularly relevant when it comes to the more complex and intelligent kit. These laws serve 2 purposes. 1 is the obvious one - "we absolutely do not want enemy states such as Russia, Iran, or potentially China etc.) getting hold of and reverse engineering western weapons systems at the leading edge of technology  - the damage done could be immense. The 2nd purpose of these laws, particularly US ITAR regulations is protectionism and support for the US defence companies by the US Gov't.

There's more, but you get the idea. Different nations are supporting (or not supporting) Ukraine according to their own imperatives and political situations and outlooks. The US has done loads, and has the capacity to do that. The UK has done well, with limited capacity to help. Same applies to Poland....others not so much.

Collectively we probably need to and should do more, but it's not all that simple.

I agree with much of this, but if you look at who's delivering most per GDP it's not the US or UK. It's all the ex-Soviet republics, Scandinavia, the Netherlands. All countries who've been under the yoke of totalitarian regimes. We're seriously underestimating Eastern Europe's will to produce and supply for Ukraine solely due to the fact that they know what it's like to be ruined by Russia.

Sure the US has HIMARS and Abrams, but the most valuable kit right now is the long range missiles coming from Europe and Turkey, drones from Turkey, tanks from Europe, night vision from Norway, anti-ship missiles and air defense from Norway, Germany and the US. The picture isn't as US and UK dominated as many of the people in these two countries think.

Europe alone can keep Ukraine supplied for years now that Kongsberg, Rheinmetall, Nammo, Konstrukta, Huta etc have hired and upscaled production.

Support for Ukraine in the US is up even more after Khakovka, roughly polling at 80% for supplying more the Ukraine.

Edited July 4, 2023 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

The ruble is continuing its path to becoming worthless.  

Its lost 4% of its value against most foreign currencies in just 1 week. 

Its 40% down over a 12 month period. 

 

 

 

 

[bickster]

3 hours ago, LondonLax said:

They would rather the US takes a roll more like Canada on the world stage.

Canada is the 7th biggest contributer to the war in pure numbers and currently rank 4th in future pledges

[blandy]

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

if you look at who's delivering most per GDP it's not the US or UK. It's all the ex-Soviet republics, Scandinavia, the Netherlands. All countries who've been under the yoke of totalitarian regimes. We're seriously underestimating Eastern Europe's will to produce and supply for Ukraine solely due to the fact that they know what it's like to be ruined by Russia.

You're quite right. I wrote my post badly, excluding that from it. 

[bielesibub]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66094744

Quote

According to the defence ministry, four of the drones flying in the Moscow region were shot down by air defence systems. A fifth was intercepted electronically before crashing.

"An attempt by the Kyiv regime to attack a zone where civil infrastructure is located, including an airport that receives international flights, is a new terrorist act," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Telegram.

oh f**k off Russia.

[magnkarl]

19 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66094744

oh f**k off Russia.

On the same day Russia flew 4 Iranian drones into a block of flats in Sumy, no less.

'Military targets'.

Since Kadyrov is a general, wouldn't his house be classified as a military target?

[HKP90]

10 hours ago, LondonLax said:

There is also a strong subculture in the US of no longer wanting to be the ‘world’s police’ and have their military fund ‘forever wars’ in foreign lands all over the globe. 

After Afghanistan, Iraq etc there is a big group of people in the US who would like Europe to be sorted out by Europeans and not have to see the US get involved every time. 

I do have some sympathy with that, although it is unfortunate that they have now fallen under Trumps umbrella. 

The 'forever wars' that they caused by the destabilising influence of an interventionist policy going back decades on both sides of the divide? 

Let's not forget that the 'War on Terror' was initiated by Bush, was not discriminatory, and left a huge power vacuum in the Middle East. 

Russia has been set up as the 'old enemy', primed by the States through a legacy of Cold War and unilateral confrontation, because it suited their Ideals.

I'm not saying necessarily that the interventionist policies of the post war period in the US were wrong as such, although a case against them could be pursued. And i'm certainly not excusing Russia for their warmongering skullduggery. What i'm saying is- clean up your shit when you leave a mess. Don't get bored half-way through cleaning up and make the rest of us deal with it. It's like my kids when they leave s*** all over the the living room floor. Suddenly they seem to have an overwhelming desire to go and play in their rooms. 

[allani]

5 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

The 'forever wars' that they caused by the destabilising influence of an interventionist policy going back decades on both sides of the divide? 

Let's not forget that the 'War on Terror' was initiated by Bush, was not discriminatory, and left a huge power vacuum in the Middle East. 

Russia has been set up as the 'old enemy', primed by the States through a legacy of Cold War and unilateral confrontation, because it suited their Ideals.

I'm not saying necessarily that the interventionist policies of the post war period in the US were wrong as such, although a case against them could be pursued. And i'm certainly not excusing Russia for their warmongering skullduggery. What i'm saying is- clean up your shit when you leave a mess. Don't get bored half-way through cleaning up and make the rest of us deal with it. It's like my kids when they leave s*** all over the the living room floor. Suddenly they seem to have an overwhelming desire to go and play in their rooms. 

Although quite ironic for people from Great Britain to be telling the US to clean up their shit when they leave a mess behind.  Our foreign policy **** ups may have pre-dated those of the US but we've caused more than our fair share of issues that are still a root cause of conflicts around the globe.  But we digress....

I do think that Putin's best chance is Trump getting elected and pulling US support from Ukraine and threatening to withdraw from NATO.  He'll also likely propose some bull***t terms for a "peace treaty" that completely misses the whole point of the conflict and ignores what Ukraine wants / needs because he has no understanding of the issues involved and is only interested in standing up in front of a crowd of screaming morons and proclaiming how he has single-handedly solved the war (even if in reality all he has done is push it back under the carpet so that folks in the back-end of Assville, Tennessee can pretend it never happened and continue believing that the communist Democrat Party is a bigger threat to world and American stability than Putin and his hordes of SM bots).  I'd go as far as saying that Trump is the only way that Russia can "win" this war / special operation.

[LondonLax]

24 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

The 'forever wars' that they caused by the destabilising influence of an interventionist policy going back decades on both sides of the divide? 

Let's not forget that the 'War on Terror' was initiated by Bush, was not discriminatory, and left a huge power vacuum in the Middle East. 

Russia has been set up as the 'old enemy', primed by the States through a legacy of Cold War and unilateral confrontation, because it suited their Ideals.

I'm not saying necessarily that the interventionist policies of the post war period in the US were wrong as such, although a case against them could be pursued. And i'm certainly not excusing Russia for their warmongering skullduggery. What i'm saying is- clean up your shit when you leave a mess. Don't get bored half-way through cleaning up and make the rest of us deal with it. It's like my kids when they leave s*** all over the the living room floor. Suddenly they seem to have an overwhelming desire to go and play in their rooms. 

I think the people we are talking about were anti bush and anti any kind of intervention in Ukraine. Leaving Russia to rule it if they wanted. 

[HKP90]

8 minutes ago, allani said:

Although quite ironic for people from Great Britain to be telling the US to clean up their shit when they leave a mess behind.  Our foreign policy **** ups may have pre-dated those of the US but we've caused more than our fair share of issues that are still a root cause of conflicts around the globe.  But we digress....

I do think that Putin's best chance is Trump getting elected and pulling US support from Ukraine and threatening to withdraw from NATO.  He'll also likely propose some bull***t terms for a "peace treaty" that completely misses the whole point of the conflict and ignores what Ukraine wants / needs because he has no understanding of the issues involved and is only interested in standing up in front of a crowd of screaming morons and proclaiming how he has single-handedly solved the war (even if in reality all he has done is push it back under the carpet so that folks in the back-end of Assville, Tennessee can pretend it never happened and continue believing that the communist Democrat Party is a bigger threat to world and American stability than Putin and his hordes of SM bots).  I'd go as far as saying that Trump is the only way that Russia can "win" this war / special operation.

It's not ironic. I'm not absolving our colonial history, or involvement in interventionism. I am just as critical and embarrassed by our own actions. But we were talking about the withdrawal of support for the war in Ukraine by a certain portion of the US public (rhyming with Bepublicans). 

As far as I can tell that has not, and is unlikely to happen in the UK. 

[Captain_Townsend]

I am terrified tonight Putin is going to blow up the ZNNP plant. The noises tonight are very concerning.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, Captain_Townsend said:

I am terrified tonight Putin is going to blow up the ZNNP plant. The noises tonight are very concerning.

Something like that will happen, and then everyone will say how they should have done more and will do next time.

[Genie]

So the rumour is Russia will blow up the nuclear plant and blame Ukraine. 

I can’t see it myself, but it might be the “going out with a bang” Putin seems to be determined to do.