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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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16 minutes ago, tinker said:

Seen an interesting theory on Prigozhin being sent to Belarus,  is he going to back door the Ukraine from there? Its 155km to Kyiv from the Belarus border.

KW aside, I can’t see it mate. Prigozhin has been pretty damning in his assessment of the Russian MOD and individuals within it. 
 

No idea what the next few weeks will bring, but I don’t see this as being some elaborate plan to get Wagner closer to Kyiv. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, Anthony said:

What I'm not seeing mentioned anywhere yet is money, and the role it played and is playing in the relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. 

Putin bankrolled Wagner initially. Is he still paying for it? To what extent have Prigozhin's 'investments' in Africa and Syria been able to give him an income? 

Armies are expensive to maintain in peacetime. Being in an active war is a huge cost multiplier. 

Another thing to consider is where does Wagner get its supplies from? I'm talking about bullets, shells, tickets etc. From what I've read it comes from Russian authorities (of whatever form). Fuel, food etc he can just buy anywhere, but the military stuff has to come mainly from the Russian armed forces. 

I suppose what I'm wondering is how 'independent' Wagner is, and maybe there's a mismatch between reality and Prigozhin's perception. 

From what I understand Wagner make most of their income in Africa. Russian MOD were insisting on shutting them down as a mercenary group and folding them into the regular army under the command of the MOD. It would have meant cutting them off from their income sources, so it’s no wonder Prigozhin went ape shit at the idea. 

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Here’s a question and I’ve seen absolutely nothing mentioned. Who is running the Internet Research Agency? For those that don’t know, Russia's most prominent troll far,. Prigozhin also ran that as well as Wagner

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

Here’s a question and I’ve seen absolutely nothing mentioned. Who is running the Internet Research Agency? For those that don’t know, Russia's most prominent troll far,. Prigozhin also ran that as well as Wagner

Probably got ChatGPT running it these days 😁

China have their own version now and presumably the US has one as well.

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1 minute ago, LondonLax said:

Probably got ChatGPT running it these days 😁

China have their own version now and presumably the US has one as well.

Agreed, Russia have more than one anyway but I was just curious as an aside really

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11 hours ago, LondonLax said:

From what I understand Wagner make most of their income in Africa. Russian MOD were insisting on shutting them down as a mercenary group and folding them into the regular army under the command of the MOD. It would have meant cutting them off from their income sources, so it’s no wonder Prigozhin went ape shit at the idea. 

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12 hours ago, bickster said:

Here’s a question and I’ve seen absolutely nothing mentioned. Who is running the Internet Research Agency? For those that don’t know, Russia's most prominent troll far,. Prigozhin also ran that as well as Wagner

The three Nordic state broadcasters did a special on this topic along with the appearance of ever increasing spy boats around their coasts earlier this year. Really interesting how most of the conspiracy theories around the 'liberal elite', anti-lgbt and the whole Republican party is essentially stoked by IRS. 

Putin has a hold on the average racist douchebag in America, to put it like that.

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29 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m surprised more is not being made of the ongoing absence from Putin.

Must be very chaotic behind the scenes to be still invisible in such a national crisis.

 

Progozhin has also gone silent which is very unusual for him. 

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Just now, Eligius said:

Progozhin has also gone silent which is very unusual for him. 

True, but it’s understandable that he might want to keep his head down. He’s already sort of won. No need to stoke the fire any more.

The people of Russia expect their leader to do a bit of leadership but he’s vanished. 

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I shall not be posting any links, but videos showing the execution of Wagner Troops are being posted on Telegram.  

Progozhin is a dead man walking.  He'll want to disappear.  Russia will want to kill him quietly.  

If Wagner had not been associated with so many atrocities he might have negotiated asylum in the West.  But now the West will also be hunting him to bring him to justice. 

My gut feeling is that he's not in Belarus.  He's running to somewhere he's had prepared for years.   

He needs somewhere desolate where a bald headed criminal will not look unusual.  St Andrews? 

 

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8 minutes ago, Genie said:

Russia says Wagner troops will be offered contracts in the regular Russian army. If they survive longer than 1 day I’d be amazed.

The Russian army needs them after all the losses they've suffered. My guess is that they will all be subsumed into the regular army and anyone who doesn't tow the party line and looks mutinous gets sent straight to Bahkmut to die. Nobody from Wagner will be in a position of power in the Russian army. Now the head of Wagner has been cut off, any power structure will wither and die. There won't be a wagner battalion, the soldiers will be split out amongst the existing Russian army to dilute them. Senior Wagner officers will be given cushy jobs inside Russia nowhere near the front lines. 

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11 minutes ago, Genie said:

Russia says Wagner troops will be offered contracts in the regular Russian army. If they survive longer than 1 day I’d be amazed.

I thought it was worded slightly differently. 

Wagner troops who did not take part in the mutiny may join the Russian Army. 

It has to be remembered that the mutiny killed quite a few Russian aircrew.  Forgive and forget isn’t going to be applicable.  

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