Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Several sources provide information on verified Russian loses. They are broadly in agreement because they are working from the same videos, death notifications etc. Verified deaths has just passed 10,000 for the entire war. Obviously the actual figure is far higher. But 800 of those verified deaths have occurred in the past 10 days! Just think about that. 12% of the total in just 2 weeks. Everyone is waiting for a massive Russian attack. It might have started 2 weeks ago. I definitely think the current loses are Wagner being sacrificed to stop them trying to grabbing power when Putin dies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: My mistake. I didn't take account of the 10 days, not two weeks. Edited February 11, 2023 by brommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted February 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted February 13, 2023 What's the current status on this? How are Ukraine doing at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Russia are making small gains but suffering massive loses to men and equipment. Everyone is waiting for Russia's big offensive. If that's yet to come then Ukraine can expect to take more loses. If the recent push is the big offensive then its been such a disaster that no-one has realised its the big offensive. Bakhmut is slowly being surrounded and it will fall at some point. I would imagine that Russia want to take it by the first anniversary. Ukraine will want to hold it for same reason. The Russian economy is starting to decline noticeably. They no longer have the ability to artificially support the economy with reserves. Tax Revenue from businesses is falling whilst spending is rocketing. Russia simply hasn't replaced the revenue from selling gas and oil to the West. Most wars tend to be an ebb and flow. Russia is winning if you think the cost they are paying is reasonable. Western tanks will be hitting the battlefield in a few months. Russia's ability to repel them is growing less every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Russia simply hasn't replaced the revenue from selling gas and oil to the West. They don't have anything to replace it with. They don't make anything or have any big companies outside of oil, gas and mining. Their economy is completely in the tank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCDAN Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Almost a year after this war started its hard to imagine anyone on the Russian side thinking this was a success by any measure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, villa89 said: They don't have anything to replace it with. They don't make anything or have any big companies outside of oil, gas and mining. Their economy is completely in the tank. Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. Russia haven't found other countries who are willing to buy gas and oil at prices high enough that replace the revenue from the West. Russia is selling plenty of gas and oil but at well below normal prices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, AVFCDAN said: Almost a year after this war started its hard to imagine anyone on the Russian side thinking this was a success by any measure. Most Russians have accepted this and its being openly spoken about in Russian media. But they have now moved the goalposts. They may have failed to beat Ukraine but they are steadily pushing all of NATO back to the West. There really is a perception that they are fighting NATO rather than a force armed with NATO weapons. Whenever a westerner serving with Ukraine is killed the Russians portray it as proof that they are fighting NATO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, AVFCDAN said: Almost a year after this war started its hard to imagine anyone on the Russian side thinking this was a success by any measure. You have to wonder how long it will be before Putin gets assassinated. Can't happen soon enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Russian loses remain exceptionally high and there is a perception that it’s cannon fodder from the prisons. But Russia sources are openly admitting that its 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been virtually wiped out. These aren’t badly trained and equipped conscripts. These are a Brigade of professional Marines with very decent equipment. They have taken 2 heavy beatings in the past 12 months. But the latest one seems to have degraded it to a point of no return. There are massive arguments on Russian Social Media regarding who is responsible. It’s amusing to see. The Russians need scape goats to blame for their defeats. They still haven’t grasped the reality of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 The Ukrainians have been taking pretty big losses themselves from the sounds of it. Grim all round at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 (edited) Russia appear to be losing their last bit of professional core around Avdiivka and Vuhledar. One day of losses from charging at entrenched Ukrainians atop old coal mine slag mounds in Avdiivka alone lost Russia 40+ vehicles and several BTG's. I'm not confident that this isn't the big offensive, and the weather is due to turn into a mud-fest meaning that the Russian supply lines will be even more degraded and bunched up for HIMARS strikes. Time is on Ukraine's side here, and they'll likely keep retreating in an orderly manner to pre-dug positions until Russia has once again spent itself. Bakhmut is still holding, and the cost for Russia trying to take it now that Wagner has lost the ability to recruit in prisons is normal mobiks and infantry. People called that Ukraine would likely give it two or so weeks before withdrawing from Bakhmut, and it looks like that is happening. The other side of the town is already massively entrenched around Chasiv Yar. Give it a month and we'll likely already have the first Bradleys in situ, it should make a substantial difference. From looking at the long term weather forecast Feb 18th will be the day where the mud season starts. Edited February 13, 2023 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juanpabloangel18 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 On 11/02/2023 at 07:57, Mandy Lifeboats said: I definitely think the current loses are Wagner being sacrificed to stop them trying to grabbing power when Putin dies. A few places reported recently that Wagner are sending out wave after wave of conscripts as human sacrifices to identify where the Ukrainian forces are, from their fire. Grim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 13, 2023 Moderator Share Posted February 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, juanpabloangel18 said: A few places reported recently that Wagner are sending out wave after wave of conscripts as human sacrifices to identify where the Ukrainian forces are, from their fire. Grim I suspect this is propaganda. They know exactly where the Ukraine forces are. They are in those trenches 800m away, they are on the high ground, they are everywhere you'd expect them to be Wagner also don't have conscripts They are sending wave after wave because it's all they know how to do and all they have the capability of doing. If it was just to do as the report you read said, they wouldn't be wasting all the tanks and IFVs that also get blown up on each wave. In places like Bakhmut they know exactly where Ukraine's troops are. If they haven't found out in the last 6 months then they'll never find out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, juanpabloangel18 said: A few places reported recently that Wagner are sending out wave after wave of conscripts as human sacrifices to identify where the Ukrainian forces are, from their fire. Grim Wagner aren’t strictly conscripts. But many are volunteers from prison. Their contract is that they get freedom after serving for a period of time. Russia isn’t overly keen to have these murderers and rapists back in civilian society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted February 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 hours ago, AVFCDAN said: Almost a year after this war started its hard to imagine anyone on the Russian side thinking this was a success by any measure. But that's not because they are seeing the light from a humanitarian perspective, it just means they thought they would have smashed Ukraine by now and are disappointed they've not killed more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 45 minutes ago, HKP90 said: But that's not because they are seeing the light from a humanitarian perspective, it just means they thought they would have smashed Ukraine by now and are disappointed they've not killed more. I honestly don't think this was the plan. Russia had no plans for a real fight. They thought Ukraine would capitulate immediately. They also thought that the West would accept the situation due to reliance upon Russian Gas. When that failed, there was no plan B. So they just did what history told them wou,d work. Bombard, show no mercy and force an end to the conflict by treaty that naturally would be in their favour. When that failed......er.......well..........um........let's carry on with the bombardment. That is why it's been such a disaster for Russia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted February 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted February 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: I honestly don't think this was the plan. Russia had no plans for a real fight. They thought Ukraine would capitulate immediately. They also thought that the West would accept the situation due to reliance upon Russian Gas. When that failed, there was no plan B. So they just did what history told them wou,d work. Bombard, show no mercy and force an end to the conflict by treaty that naturally would be in their favour. When that failed......er.......well..........um........let's carry on with the bombardment. That is why it's been such a disaster for Russia. What you are saying is that Russia are Steven Gerrard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, HKP90 said: What you are saying is that Russia are Steven Gerrard? Good look finding Putin to look into his eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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