The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[darrenm]

Which again shows how **** stupid it was to call a GE for May. Arlene Foster holds the keys again.

[Chindie]

30 minutes ago, darrenm said:

So which of the possible outcomes @ml1dch listed do you think is most likely?

As things stand, there'll be a border. I don't see an agreement to de facto reunify happening, the government isn't going to back down on its red lines and there isn't a magic fantasy deal on the table.

27 minutes ago, bickster said:

The DUP do. End of Government

Which will end the Tory party. They'll are terrified of the Brexit vote. They'll take losing the DUP to survive imo.

25 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Had they not called an election then you'd probably be right. The CTA is preserved and Northern Ireland is inside the Single Market, while remaining part of the UK.

May dresses it up as "best of both worlds" for Northern Ireland, customs checks on produce going from Larne to Cairnryan is out of sight, out of mind. The EU doesn't give a toss if people flying from Belfast to Britain have immigration checks or not, so there can be a big speech about them being "no less British". It's solved, and we move onto the next massive problem.

With the DUP able to bring down the Government at a click of their fingers, not giving a **** is off the table for them.

I don't see that happening, as above the Tories are concerned about their appearance on Brexit. The'dy take losing the DUP and try to cling to power, and if the government falls they might have a sigh of relief to avoid holding the can when the shit hits.

Splitting off Northern Ireland is going to cause an almighty mess, if nothing else the DUP will have a shit fit as you're in spitting distance of reunification, even if they get the benefits nobody else does.

There isn't a good solution that involves the UK leaving the market.

[bickster]

They cant lose the DUP and cling to power, there'd be a vote of no confidence almost immediately

[Chindie]

7 minutes ago, bickster said:

They cant lose the DUP and cling to power, there'd be a vote of no confidence almost immediately

In which case, as said, they ride into opposition and laugh as Corbyn gets his hands dirty with all the crap that's coming and the Labour party begin their spiral of death torn apart by Brexit.

Edited October 11, 2017 by Chindie

[tonyh29]

12 minutes ago, bickster said:

They cant lose the DUP and cling to power, there'd be a vote of no confidence almost immediately

If they lose the DUP supply and demand vote thing .... on the basis the DUP aren’t paid up members of the Corbyn fan club , what happens if the DUP abstain  rather than vote against the government ...

the govt would  potentially be 4 short of a majority ( SF not voting ) but would still have more votes than the opposition , unless some Tory’s vote agaisnt the party and see if the motion wouldn’t they ?

last one was Callaghan and it looks like he lost 311 to 310 but 4 people abstained who possibly could have saved him ?

Edited October 11, 2017 by tonyh29

[bickster]

Just now, Chindie said:

In which case, as said, they ride into opposition and laugh as Corbyn gets his hands dirty with all the crap that's coming and the Labour party begin their spiral of death torn apart by Brexit.

That all depends on what the Labour Party are saying, whenever that happens.

We're more in the land of ifs and buts them. IMO we'll end up with a coalition, the LP won’t gain enough seats for overall control, they’ll need the SNP and the SNP will not power share with a pro-Brexit party

[bickster]

Just now, tonyh29 said:

If they lose the DUP supply and demand vote thing .... on the basis the DUP aren’t paid up members of the Corbyn fan club , what happens if the DUP abstain  rather than vote agaisnt the government ...

the govt would  potentially be 4 short of a majority ( SF not voting ) but would still have more votes than the opposition , unless some Tory’s vote agaisnt the party and see if the motion wouldn’t they ?

last one was Callaghan and it looks like he lost 311 to 310 but 4 people abstained who possibly could have saved him ?

They can’t abstain, as abstention would in all likelihood change nothing and a hard border awaits. Abstention would be counter productive, a soft border is THE DUP red line

[snowychap]

 

[tonyh29]

15 minutes ago, bickster said:

They can’t abstain, as abstention would in all likelihood change nothing and a hard border awaits. Abstention would be counter productive, a soft border is THE DUP red line

Rather than the red line of putting an IRA sympathiser in number 10 . 

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

Had they not called an election then you'd probably be right. The CTA is preserved and Northern Ireland is inside the Single Market, while remaining part of the UK.

May dresses it up as "best of both worlds" for Northern Ireland, customs checks on produce going from Larne to Cairnryan is out of sight, out of mind. The EU doesn't give a toss if people flying from Belfast to Britain have immigration checks or not, so there can be a big speech about them being "no less British". It's solved, and we move onto the next massive problem.

With the DUP able to bring down the Government at a click of their fingers, not giving a **** is off the table for them.

From memory I think this was also Awol's suggestion as to how it would play out but as people are pointing out the election since then may have changed things and potentialy removed that option from the table. 

[Chindie]

A quick Google suggests the DUP has already nixed any concept of a border at the mainland. That fundamentally gets too close to unification for them to accept.

[ml1dch]

8 minutes ago, Chindie said:

A quick Google suggests the DUP has already nixed any concept of a border at the mainland. That fundamentally gets too close to unification for them to accept.

Well...yes. We know.

That's why we were telling you that they have to give a **** about Northern Ireland. Because when the DUP aren't important they can do that.

When they are (in a Parliamentary sense), they can't without losing power.

[Chindie]

5 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Well...yes. We know.

That's why we were telling you that they have to give a **** about Northern Ireland. Because when the DUP aren't important they can do that.

When they are (in a Parliamentary sense), they can't without losing power.

Bit close to condescension there, unnecessary since I'm pretty much on the same Brexit page.

I would still argue they don't really care. The sheer lack of focus on it is testament to that. Their magic completely unworkable solution is testament to the amount of thought given to it. I don't think they're so wedded to power given all the problems they have, and the more to come, that they'd be too disappointed to be out of power either. Particularly since they pretty much can't win on Brexit which will do very long term damage regardless of what they do.

Would you agree with Darren that Northern Ireland kills Brexit? Because I'd argue there's no chance.

[ml1dch]

10 hours ago, Chindie said:

Bit close to condescension there, unnecessary since I'm pretty much on the same Brexit page.

I would still argue they don't really care. The sheer lack of focus on it is testament to that. Their magic completely unworkable solution is testament to the amount of thought given to it. I don't think they're so wedded to power given all the problems they have, and the more to come, that they'd be too disappointed to be out of power either. Particularly since they pretty much can't win on Brexit which will do very long term damage regardless of what they do.

Would you agree with Darren that Northern Ireland kills Brexit? Because I'd argue there's no chance.

You're right, apologies.

I'd agree that it's the obvious smoking gun. With such a self-destructive, self-contradictory idea where everyone involved in delivering it has no idea of what to do there are plenty of things yet to kick it into the grass.

Northern Ireland is the one where there is a clear, logical path to it going away.

Wrong decision made - DUP bail - Government falls - Labour put the UK into the EEA in perpetuity.

That probably won't happen either, but I'd say it's the most logical killer / saviour at the moment.

Edited October 12, 2017 by ml1dch

[blandy]

4 hours ago, ml1dch said:

I imagine that everyone on here has said plenty of things that were miles outside reality.

Sure, and that’s ok. I think collectively we’re trying to keep up and follow and understand and sometimes we get confused etc.  But the Parliament people, they’re paid to do all that stuff as their jobs. Paid by us. They should be ahead of us, collectively across the different outlooks be able to present the aspects, details, impending complications, pros and cons and all that....and they don’t and can’t. They are not representing us, or our interests. They’re chasing careers, prejudices, interests and all that. It’s gruesome.

[ml1dch]

15 minutes ago, blandy said:

Sure, and that’s ok. I think collectively we’re trying to keep up and follow and understand and sometimes we get confused etc.  But the Parliament people, they’re paid to do all that stuff as their jobs. Paid by us. They should be ahead of us, collectively across the different outlooks be able to present the aspects, details, impending complications, pros and cons and all that....and they don’t and can’t. They are not representing us, or our interests. They’re chasing careers, prejudices, interests and all that. It’s gruesome.

Well yes - to be honest, I only added that line so it didn't look like I was having a go at the two people I quoted for being wrong 

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

If they lose the DUP supply and demand vote thing .... on the basis the DUP aren’t paid up members of the Corbyn fan club , what happens if the DUP abstain  rather than vote against the government ...

the govt would  potentially be 4 short of a majority ( SF not voting ) but would still have more votes than the opposition , unless some Tory’s vote agaisnt the party and see if the motion wouldn’t they ?

last one was Callaghan and it looks like he lost 311 to 310 but 4 people abstained who possibly could have saved him ?

I'd be pretty confident that if Brexit was 4 votes short, at that point 4 or 5 Labour MP's would prop it up.

 

[chrisp65]

[ml1dch]

Barnier / Davis press conference. This one might actually be interesting...

[snowychap]

21 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Barnier / Davis press conference. This one might actually be interesting...

Not really.

As usual, Barnier says not enough progress (for talks on future relationship) and Davis says that they've come on in leaps and bounds. It's almost as though they've attended different negotiations. Did Davis attend any this week?