Awol Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, StefanAVFC said: That would be hilarious. Could easily imagine enough Brexiteer MPs voting with Labour just to put a stake through the heart of May's deal - and her Premiership. It's beyond farce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 (edited) The suggestion here is that the government is intending to change the schedule of commons business and that Labour are saying that they can't do this without a vote. => PM makes her statement at 3.30pm and announces that they won't have the vote and that she's sent Olly Bobbins back to Brussels (someone has already tweeted that he's there now). Leadsom addresses the house on Business, Labour calls for a vote on whether that business shouldn't be changed, Bercow decides to let them have the vote, May and government lose vote, meaningful vote debate and vote tomorrow still go ahead. Edit: Beaten to it by @StefanAVFC. Edited December 10, 2018 by snowychap 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 Plans being scuppered by parliamentary procedure would be outright hilarious. Also I guess saying you've gone back to the table gets her a few more days as well. Any movement from the EU will be purely for the look of the thing. The substance isn't changing. The backstop definitely isn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chindie said: But I'd bet she reckons she could influence both. Ah, I think I misread your earlier post. You were saying what you think she could say later on (and thus what she probably thinks) rather than what would actually happen if she were to announce it? I agree that would very much be in keeping with everything else she's done. Announce something as actually happening (or not) without understanding that she's not in control of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowychap said: Ah, I think I misread your earlier post. You were saying what you think she could say later on (and thus what she probably thinks) rather than what would actually happen if she were to announce it? I agree that would very much be in keeping with everything else she's done. Announce something as actually happening (or not) without understanding that she's not in control of it. Yeah. I don't think much of that would come to pass, certainly not to the extent May would want, but I could see her thought process. It would backfire, for the reasons everyone has given, but I could see her seeing it and going for it in desperation. She's been humiliated before with u-turns, if she felt she could get a fudged second referendum to keep her in place, I could see her going for it. And it coming back to haunt her and her having to do another last ditch save for a precious few more days when it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 It does feel increasingly like a second vote is coming, though. The exact details are up in the air but I can see the entire thing getting getting clogged up to the extent Parliament will push for it to get things moving. The big issues being obviously there's a hard deadline and the question this time is very difficult (as it should have been first time). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Three oral statements later: May with Brexit; Leadsom with Business Statement; Barclay (Brexit Minister) with EU Exit - Article 50.... Big day, if she makes a play to extend A50 then no question about 48 letters going in and a confidence vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted December 10, 2018 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2018 Hopefully, she's going to walk out to the lectern, announce she's revoked Article 50 and then do a Slobodan Praljak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: Hopefully, she's going to walk out to the lectern, announce she's revoked Article 50 and then do a Slobodan Praljak. Sadly it's fairly likely she'll just say she's going to reopen negotiations over the backstop and then rattle off buzzwords that play well on the news. Despite the EU repeatedly saying the deal is the deal. Unless she moves. Which she probably won't as she loves the idea of getting rid of the foreigners. As much as I'd like to see her keel over the lectern while revoking A50. Preferably with the sound of parliament going up behind her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Chindie said: I suppose the one thing the statement this afternoon could do that is more than playing for the cameras is to announce a second referendum, but as suggested over the weekend, with options being her deal or no deal. This would benefit her in a few ways. Firstly, and in accordance with the prime directive, it lets her keep power for longer. It involves 2 climbdowns (u-turns on second vote and extending A50), but she could handwave that. The extension and referendum build up buys more time in No.10 for the power mad witch. Second, it makes it fairly likely she gets her way. No Deal is exceptionally stupid and probably wouldn't win and Remainers would need to back her deal as the alternative is disastrous. Winning also legitimises her and let's her get rid of Brexit in her mind, and possibly the public's too, which has dogged her entire premiership. She also gets to grandstand to the People's Vote. Sure she'd actually puts piss off the people invested in the People's Vote, but the bystanders who don't really get it get to see her appear to make a good willed concession to public will. Winning would also put problems in Parliament to bed. Win the second vote, and it's unlikely many MPs defy her. I'm probably missing something, but working purely on her raisin d'etre, w second vote fudged in her favour would probably be good for May, in a very cynical way. I thought Parliament had to vote on the final deal - are you assuming they would if the public backed May's exit plan. According to pollsters only 27% of the public backed the May deal - slightly misleading as the ballot would have no deal looming as the only other option - Unless remain sneaks on there. Like I was saying Earlier 2nd referendum would end up in a mess. I think May should propose a parliamentary vote that we stay in the EU - gets passed and we move on from all this Bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Could she revoke A50 - Then start it again with a deadline of 2021 - Or could the house vote on A50 every 3 or 4 years - knowing the house will not vote to leave in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Chindie said: the question this time is very difficult (as it should have been first time). the question this time is are our politicians capable of negotiating brexit and the answer now is clearly absolutely not a **** chance the focus will still be whats your opinion on the EU, mine hasn't changed it still isn't good, my opinion on our parliament has, we're even worse, hence why my vote in a 2nd referendum would be different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 10, 2018 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, hippo said: Could she revoke A50 - Then start it again with a deadline of 2021 - Or could the house vote on A50 every 3 or 4 years - knowing the house will not vote to leave in the foreseeable future. Nope, EU would tell her to do one, They'd say that you want to do that its WTO rules in as quick as we can get it sorted. That's the one clause in there, you can't withdraw A50 abusively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, bickster said: Nope, EU would tell her to do one, They'd say that you want to do that its WTO rules in as quick as we can get it sorted. That's the one clause in there, you can't withdraw A50 abusively Ah well - I am sure we will all be much wiser at 3.35 ! ...Some are suggesting that she can not withdraw the vote this late in the day and that the vote may still go ahead ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Chindie said: The Commons statement will be the usual double down of will of the people shite so the News at 6 has some footage of her looking 'decisive' and in control, when she's anything but. The whole thing is disastrous to the point of being pretty hilarious with a hint of terrifying, isn't it? It's hard to see how this can go on much longer as the government have zero credibility now. You can't spend days telling people that it's the only deal and it can't be changed only to go back and try to change it. You can't spend days telling people the vote will go ahead only to pull it. Then you have the whole election fiasco. I know its supposed to be a woman's perogative to change her mind but this is taking the piss now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 10, 2018 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, hippo said: Ah well - I am sure we will all be much wiser at 3.35 ! ...Some are suggesting that she can not withdraw the vote this late in the day and that the vote may still go ahead ? Depends on Bercow's interpretation, get the popcorn ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 She's been speaking for 10 seconds and they're openly laughing at her. Twice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choffer Posted December 10, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2018 Unsurprisingly, vote deferred cos of them Irish lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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