The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[blandy]

42 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The border is easily solvable. It's just all the solutions piss off someone involved to some degree. One of them will eventually climb down.

Brexit will happen. The argument is only to what degree. Currently, and increasingly, the answer to that is the terrible result that's very easy to achieve. It's the default one. We crash out in 2019.

It is far from easily solvable, because there is a fundamental incompatibility between Brexit which means "having control of our own borders after brexit" and free movement between RoI and NI (GFA etc.). There is also the EU having external borders. If the UK is not part of the EU, then there has to be a EU border between RoI and UK - otherwise customs...

The only answer is no Brexit. And that's not a "solution".

[Enda]

25 minutes ago, blandy said:

It is far from easily solvable, because there is a fundamental incompatibility between Brexit which means "having control of our own borders after brexit" and free movement between RoI and NI (GFA etc.). There is also the EU having external borders. If the UK is not part of the EU, then there has to be a EU border between RoI and UK - otherwise customs...

The only answer is no Brexit. And that's not a "solution".

Not quite, you lot are welcome to stay in the single market and customs union, and that would avoid a border. This deal would sacrifice any voting power on EU law, but you get some vague sense of independence/not being in the EU. Least worst scenario from this shambles, imho.

[Enda]

Jaysus.

The good posters of VT have more understanding of the Irish position than your Foreign Secretary. You're all up the creek, folks.

 

[OutByEaster?]

Maybe we could leave the EU but let Northern Ireland stay in?

It could become an independent nation or maybe join the rest of Ireland?

 

 

What?

[shrugs shoulders]

 

 

 

[LondonLax]

Things seem to be going well 

[Chindie]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

It is far from easily solvable, because there is a fundamental incompatibility between Brexit which means "having control of our own borders after brexit" and free movement between RoI and NI (GFA etc.). There is also the EU having external borders. If the UK is not part of the EU, then there has to be a EU border between RoI and UK - otherwise customs...

The only answer is no Brexit. And that's not a "solution".

I've covered this specifically when saying any solution would require a side to have a climb down. You don't need to reiterate the issues to me. I'm perfectly aware of them.

The solutions are easy. They kinda get made for you depending on your priorities in the negotiations. The issue is there must be a group that gets pissed off with the result.

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Enda said:

Not quite, you lot are welcome to stay in the single market and customs union....

Yeah, perhaps I should have been clearer  - Our gov't has said that's totally ruled out of their Brexit - that "leaving means leaving". Their position is utterly incompatible with sanity. Their position and the EU are just diametrically opposed, so it's not a case of an easy solution, it's a case that the UK (tories) would have to effectively "surrender". Hopefully they will, but I don't think they will. They're too selfish, too stupid, too incompetent. They are not doing what's best for the UK, they're just blundering around haplessly, but with a wholly misplaced arrogance and complacency.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

I've covered this specifically when saying any solution would require a side to have a climb down. You don't need to reiterate the issues to me. I'm perfectly aware of them.

The solutions are easy.

Sorry, I wasn't intending to to "re-iterate" anything. We have a different view. "climbing down" looks utterly out of the scope of the Gov't. It would not be "easy" for our idiot gov't to abandon, wholesale their ideology. They know the consequences for them and their party.

Obviously the sane thing to do, for the country, would be to call the whole thing off. But even that wouldn't be "easy" and the ructions would be huger than those caused by the whole mad idea to start with.

There is though, no "negotiable" solutin that could work. It's either call it off or disaster. That's why I said "no easy solution". The EU cannot abandon the principle of the single market "easily" and the UK Gov't cannot abandone their "control our own borders" rubbish easily.

[darrenm]

So what we're saying here is it's unsolvable?

[NurembergVillan]

"Russia used a network of 150,000 Twitter accounts to meddle in Brexit".

Quote

• New data is the "most significant evidence yet" that Russia-backed social media accounts meddled in the Brexit referendum.
• Over 150,000 Twitter accounts based in Russia tweeted about Brexit during the referendum campaign, an investigation has found.
• Theresa May told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Britain "knows" what Russia is doing.

An interesting insight into what we were discussing a couple of days ago.

Quote

LONDON — Twitter accounts based in Russia posted 45,000 tweets about Brexit within the space of 48 hours during last year's referendum on EU membership, an investigation commissioned by The Times has found.

Data scientists at the University of Swansea and University of California, Berkeley found that over 150,000 accounts based in Russia posted content relating to Brexit in the days leading up to voting day on June 23, 2016.

These accounts had previously focused on issues like Russia's annexation of Crimea, before focusing their attention on the Brexit referendum, with the majority of tweets seen by the Times encouraging people to vote Leave.

A "massive number of Russian-related tweets was created a few days before the voting day, reached its peak during the voting and the result and then dropped immediately afterwards," the paper to be released by researchers says.

"The main conclusion is that bots were used on purpose and had influence," Tho Pam, one of the paper's main authors, adds.

The Russian accounts were most active on the day of the referendum (Thursday, June 23) and following day (Friday, June 24) when the final result became clear. The accounts posted over 39,000 tweets on Friday, June 24.

Conservative MP Damian Collins, who chairs the digital, culture, media and sport select committee, said the research is "the most significant evidence yet of interference by Russia-backed social media accounts around the Brexit referendum."

He added: "The content published and promoted by these accounts is clearly designed to increase tensions throughout the country and undermine our democratic process. I fear that this may well be just the tip of the iceberg."

Researchers at the University of Edinburgh have identified 419 accounts operating from the Russian Internet Agency attempting to influence British politics, the Guardian reports. 

A Kremlin-linked account tweeted a bogus picture showing a Muslim woman ignoring victims of the Westminster bridge terrorist attack earlier this year. This picture was subsequently reported by The Sun and Mail Online. 

Twitter / @SouthLoneStar

Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday used a speech to accuse Russia of using fake news to "sow discord" in the west and "meddle" in democratic processes.

"[Russia] is seeking to weaponise information. Deploying its state-run media organisations to plant fake stories and photo-shopped images in an attempt to sow discord in the West and undermine our institutions," May said.

"So I have a very simple message for Russia. We know what you are doing. And you will not succeed. Because you underestimate the resilience of our democracies, the enduring attraction of free and open societies, and the commitment of Western nations to the alliances that bind us."

MPs including Labour's Chris Bryant and Ben Bradshaw have repeatedly urged the UK government to up its investigation into the level of Russian interference in the EU referendum.

A spokesperson for Theresa May told Business Insider on Tuesday that the while the UK government had seen "no evidence of successful direct interference in UK democratic processes," they were taking "all the necessary steps to make sure we have the right protections in place and that our democratic processes aren't interfered with."

http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/russia-used-twitter-accounts-to-meddle-in-brexit-investigation-shows-2017-11/

[Chindie]

10 minutes ago, darrenm said:

So what we're saying here is it's unsolvable?

No. But there isn't a solution that plays for everyone. There isn't a way of overcoming it without one group or another in play gets a short straw.

No deal and there has to be a border. Pisses off the Irish, some elements of Northern Ireland, kills the GFA.

Any deal doing away with the border irritates someone. Either you effectively de facto reunify Ireland (which will reopen a Pandora's box that's barely shut) by creating a border in the Irish Sea and giving Northern Ireland special status, which will infuriate the DUP and large swathes of Westminster. Or you go the Norway deal, which is basically Brexit in name only (a slightly cheaper version of what we have now but with less influence) which will set the Brexiteers alight and embarrass the government as it would tear up almost every red line they have. Or you don't leave, which pisses off the Brexiteers and makes decades of dissent rise to the fore again.

But... Brexit is more than the border. The border is just a very important part of it.

If a key aim is protect the economy, then the economic impact is disastrous if we lose the market access. That basically makes the border decision for you.

If the red line is solely removing Brussels influence and border control, that makes your decision for you - it's either no deal or Canada.

In the unlikely event Westminster let's the border decide the decision, it's Norway or cancel.

Etc etc. 

It's not unsolvable. It's unsolvable where everyone wins though.

And the default decision is the worst of all worlds and we are increasingly likely to get it.

[OutByEaster?]

It'd be interesting to know if there are large amounts of tweets and posts from other countries, or if it's just Russia.

[tinker]

If we have a hard Bexit then the effect on our economy will be catastrophic and we will all suffer, we will have to borrow money from outside of the EU, the pound will get hammered and inflation will rocket..

However the impact on the EU will also be  massive and frail economies, like Ireland, Greece, Spain, italy could be tipped over the edge and need bailing out, Germany and France would have to try and bail them out,  they would have to borrow to do so, USA, Russia and China will benefit. 

The Social media manipulation shows the power that it has, its happened so suddenly its taken us all by surprise and its a very scarey development. Too many people are forming their opinions based on either false news or Social media thats not accountable in any way and has a direct link to masses of the population at a personnel level, their phone . Russia has grabbed the initiative, we are in a very dangerous time.

Edited November 18, 2017 by tinker

[Chindie]

The harm to the EU isn't as bad as you might think based on the analysis I've seen. Some get hit more than others, Ireland, the Netherlands, etc, but in general it's not an enormous blow on on a country by country basis, and they all potentially can benefit in some markets by stepping into Britain shaped holes - hence why they're all scrabbling around to appeal to banks and insurers.

At the end of the day it's 27 selling to 1, and 1 selling to 27. The 1 gets **** when the trade gets hampered.

[LondonLax]

The Irish government needs to work on being the preferred English speaking finance hub for the EU. Dublin could do quite well out of it and help soften the blow a bit. 

[darrenm]

For @Chindie 's benefit to help understand

[peterms]

On 17/11/2017 at 20:26, darrenm said:

So what we're saying here is it's unsolvable?

No, it's not unsolvable.

What needs to happen is for the gradual implosion of the tory party to accelerate, fuelled by the furnace of its own hatred and stupidity; for Labour feel that the climate of opinion has changed enough for it to call for a rethink (because they are too wary of their own possible loss of core supporters to move too quickly on this); and for the parliamentary arithmetic to change enough that a different direction becomes possible, so that Article 50 is repealed and discussions can take place about alternative arrangements.

On the climate of opinion changing, I see the Evesham Journal has changed its mind.  Clearly the game is up.

 

[blandy]

26 minutes ago, peterms said:

No, it's not unsolvable.

The UK gov't has said it will not stay in the single market, and also that we will "control our borders" which means there must be a border between UK and EU, both because of the UK gov't position and because of EU single market rules.

That's just not reconcilable with the GFA and the other UK gov't position, which is that there will be no border controls between NI and Rep Ireland.

It is unsolvable as it stands. And the EU will not climb down, and the UK gov't will collapse if they climb down, so maybe you're right and Labour would maybe get in when that happens and maybe they will change their current "we're leaving" position (they should) but Corbyn and chums are enthusiastic exiters.

[peterms]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

Corbyn and chums are enthusiastic exiters

I'm not sure that's right.  I think their position is more like my own, which is that there is a very great deal wrong with the EU which may or may not be fixable, depending on the degree of political will among member states to do anything about it, but that the current approach to leaving at a fixed date regardless of the consequences is barking mad and should be undone, but in a way which tries to bring onside as many as possible of the convertible.

[Enda]

On 11/18/2017 at 08:39, tinker said:

However the impact on the EU will also be  massive and frail economies, like Ireland

Irish PPP per capita: $57,000; UK PPP per capita: $42,000.

Growth rate of Irish economy: 5.8%; Growth rate of UK economy: 1.3%.

Irish inflation rate (over past 12 months): 0.6%; UK inflation rate (over past 12 months): 2.8%.

Change in unemployment in Ireland (over past 12 months): -1.2%; Change in unemployment in UK (over past 12 months): -0.5%.

Now, tell us again how Ireland's economy is frail.