The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[snowychap]

On 23/06/2017 at 16:23, snowychap said:

We'll have to wait and see the detail on that, though. I gather the initial stuff is due on Monday.

If it's the same 'five years' as currently then it's five continuous years with various other requirements in there (including the stuff about Comprehensive Sickness Insurance, for example).

Just having a quick look at the proposals and the first thing to note is that the government proposes:

Quote

the application process will be a separate legal scheme, in UK law, rather than the current one for certifying the exercise of rights under EU law. Accordingly we will tailor the eligibility criteria so that, for example, we will no longer require evidence that economically inactive EU citizens have previously held ‘comprehensive sickness insurance’ in order to be considered continuously resident

That would appear to be a good start but I wonder whether that may cause an issue with EU citizens who have already applied for permanent residency and been refused on the grounds of not having a continuous 5 years (if they also needed CSI)?

Also, on the issue of the cut off date:

Quote

...to qualify [for settled status], the EU citizen must have been resident in the UK before a specified date and must have completed a period of five years’ continuous residence in the UK before they apply for settled status, at which point they must still be resident;

those EU citizens who arrived and became resident before the specified date but who have not accrued five years’ continuous residence at the time of the UK’s exit will be able to apply for temporary status in order to remain resident in the UK until they have accumulated five years, after which they will be eligible to apply for settled status;

those EU citizens who arrived after the specified date will be allowed to remain in the UK for at least a temporary period and may become eligible to settle permanently, depending on their circumstances – but this group should have no expectation of guaranteed settled status;

...

the ‘specified date’ will be no earlier than the 29 March 2017, the date the formal Article 50 process for exiting the EU was triggered, and no later than the date of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. We expect to discuss the specified date with our European partners as part of delivering a reciprocal deal;

There may well then be, under these proposals, EU citizens already living here who are in the group who should have no expectation of guaranteed settled status. They won't know whether they should or shouldn't have any expectations as we won't know when this specified date will be until a later date which has not, as yet, been specified. They should be reassured, however, that they won't be required to leave the UK on the day of exit as they'll be covered by the blanket permission period (expected to be two years but to be decided at a later date) which will begin on a date that, as yet, we don't know.

[bickster]

4 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said:

Corbyn and co predicting the consequences of the single currency:

 

Not sure I get the point of this post?

[tonyh29]

31 minutes ago, bickster said:

Not sure I get the point of this post?

least he wore a tie back then

 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

least he wore a tie back then

 

Id vote for anyone that banned them and umbrellas

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Id vote for anyone that banned them and umbrellas

add Baseball caps and I'd vote for them as well

[peterms]

4 hours ago, bickster said:

Not sure I get the point of this post?

I thought he was pointing out that corbyn was saying something against the prevailing wisdom, which turned out to be absolutely right.

[Chindie]

FT reports car industry investment has collapsed by 75% amid Brexit uncertainty.

It's alright though. Nissan got a bun-... Sorry, reassurances.

Oh and it appears the isn't has finally begin to drop (or the pretense wained, judge on your own cynicism) that the 'cake and eat it' approach is not going to happen. Of course.

Now a few people need to realise **** off the biggest and closest trading partner you have, that has rather a lot of clout, is really **** stupid, and we might not point that gun we keep firing at our feet at our forehead.

[bickster]

Yesterday's Survation polls made for interesting reading especially as one of them was commissioned by the Heil on Sunday

Quote

Our Latest Polls Indicate Majority Support “Soft” Brexit

• Voters disagree with Theresa May’s mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal”, with 58% against leaving the EU without a deal, and 55% in favour of a “soft” Brexit
• There is support for a referendum on a possible deal with the EU once negotiations are over, with 48% in favour and 43% against
• Labour are three points ahead of the Conservatives, with the parties on 44% and 41%, respectively
• But voters still trust May more than Corbyn to deliver a good Brexit deal, by 52% to 39%

Our two latest polls, for ITV’s Good Morning Britain, and for the Mail on Sunday, have weighed public opinion on Brexit in the wake of the General Election (see links for full tables).

Respondents told us Brexit was the number one issue that decided their vote in the election. 12% chose Brexit, followed by the NHS, on 10%, and tribal loyalty, the economy and party leader, all on 8%.

 

Whither Brexit?

Our polls indicate the public are in favour of a “soft” Brexit.

A majority of voters think a deal should be agreed on the terms of exit. When asked if they thought leaving the EU without a mutually agreed deal would be good or bad for Britain, 58% thought it would be bad, and 31% thought it would be good.

And when given the direct choice between a “soft” Brexit, involving staying in the EU single market and customs union, and a “hard” Brexit – which would mean leaving both – 55% said they preferred a “soft” Brexit, against 35% for the “hard” option.

 

Another Referendum, but Only on the Deal

Voters support a referendum on a possible deal with the EU. But not a rerun of 2016’s vote.

We asked: “When the UK Government’s negotiations over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are complete, would you…?

1. Support holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject a deal
2. Oppose a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject a deal”.

48% supported the idea; 43% opposed it.

A separate poll found only 38% in favour of a referendum with the same wording as 2016’s, with 57% opposed.

However, if the 2016 vote were repeated, 51% said they would now vote remain, against 49% for leave. This excludes those who said don’t know, or refused the question.

 

Leaders vs. Parties

More voters trust Theresa May than Jeremy Corbyn to deliver a good Brexit deal. 52% of respondents chose her, against only 39% for Corbyn.

But that doesn’t mean voters think the Conservative Government should have full control over the negotiations.

We asked if they thought the Conservative Government, or a coalition of all parties, would be best placed to negotiate a deal for Britain.

Only 35% chose the Conservatives, and 60% thought a coalition of all parties would be best.

Labour have kept ahead of the Conservatives in voting intention since the General Election. 44% now say they would vote Labour, against 41% for the Conservatives. This would make Labour the largest party in parliament, according to the table below (source: Electoral Calculus).

Search:

Party	2017 Election Votes	2017 Election Seats	Predicted Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Total Predicted Seats
CON	43.5%	318	41.0%	2	37	-35	283
LAB	41.0%	262	44.0%	46	0	+46	308
LIB	7.6%	12	6.0%	0	2	-2	10
UKIP	1.9%	0	2.0%	0	0	0	0
Green	1.7%	1	1.0%	0	0	0	1
SNP	3.1%	35	3.1%	1	9	-8	27
Plaid	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
Minor	0.7%	0	2.4%	0	0	0	0
N. Ireland		18		0	0	0	18

Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

The Liberal Democrats are on 6%, UKIP 2% and other parties 8%.

Survation interviewed 1,005 members of the public by telephone on June 16^th and 17^th.

Survation’s unique methodology made us the most accurate pollster of the 2017 General Election. Full details here.

4

Clicky

[snowychap]

Italy-Austria tension over border troops at Brenner Pass

Quote

Italy has summoned Austria's ambassador after the government in Vienna announced it was ready to deploy border troops to block any migrant influx.

Austrian Defence Minister Hans Peter Doskozil told Kronen Zeitung daily that troops could go to the Brenner Pass.

He said four Pandur armoured personnel carriers had been sent to the Tyrol region and 750 troops were on standby.

Austria has border checks with Hungary and Slovenia. But elsewhere it adheres to the EU open borders system.

Mr Doskozil said a military deployment at the busy Alpine pass, on the Italian border, would be "indispensable if the influx into Italy [across the Mediterranean] does not diminish".

Later Italy's foreign ministry said it had summoned Austrian Ambassador Rene Pollitzer "following the Austrian government's statement about deploying troops to the Brenner (pass)".

People-smuggling gangs have been exploiting the violence and chaos in Libya. The shortest crossing from Libya to Italy is only about 460km (290 miles).

Nearly 85,000 migrants and refugees arrived in Italy in the first half of this year, across the Mediterranean. The UN refugee agency UNHCR says that is about 20% more than in the first half of 2016.

Brenner 'stable'

The Italian governor of South Tyrol, Arno Kompatscher, sought to defuse tensions. He said Austria had issued similar warnings about the border previously, and the situation there remained "quiet and stable".

Austria was gearing up for a general election in October, Mr Kompatscher noted. The anti-immigration Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) is expected to poll strongly.

...more on link

 

[Enda]

Reading old posts in this thread is wonderful.

Macron will never be leader of France, the Euro will be dead, access the single market without freedom of movement, the British economy will never slip into recession, refuse to engage in trade negotiations until Gibraltar is taken off the table... some great ones altogether.

[Enda]

 

Quote

 

EU and Japan reach free trade deal

The European Union and Japan have formally agreed an outline free-trade deal.

The agreement paves the way for trading in goods without tariff barriers between two of the world's biggest economic areas.

However, few specific details are known and a full, workable agreement may take some time.

Two of the most important sectors are Japanese cars and, for Europe, EU farming goods into Japan.

The EU and Japan have done two deals for the price of one: a trade deal and a complementary "Strategic Partnership". One will create a major free-trading economic bloc, the second will see them co-operate in other areas like combating climate change.

Both are "in principle" deals, some details to be agreed, so there could still be hurdles. But the signal this sends, bringing two of the world's biggest economic powers together, is unmistakeable.

 

BBC

I'd imagine the time this gets formally singed ye're not going to be part of it, unfortunately.

[Awol]

6 hours ago, Enda said:

 

BBC

I'd imagine the time this gets formally singed ye're not going to be part of it, unfortunately.

At the rate the EU progresses FTA's it's possible no one alive today will benefit from it... agreeing Heads of Terms is the easy part, as you know. 

[magnkarl]

9 hours ago, Awol said:

At the rate the EU progresses FTA's it's possible no one alive today will benefit from it... agreeing Heads of Terms is the easy part, as you know. 

Agreed. It took the EU how long to complete its deal with Canada? 

Trump said in an interview today (take this with a big pinch of salt) that he'll put through a UK/US free trade deal very very quickly. To compare, the US economy is much larger than EU's economy - however I'm not so sure if Trump is interested in giving us a competitive edge over his other deals. Take UK out of the green bit on the pie chart below and USA's economy is a much better trading partner on paper.

[bickster]

Trump said that months back then contradicted himself days later.

Orange man speak with forked tongue 

[Chindie]

Trumps agenda has always been America gets the best out of it's deals from now on. Do not expect favours from his regime.

Also it's not really to to him how quickly a deal gets done.

The US share of global GDP isn't of much relevance either.

[magnkarl]

Nothing Trump says can be taken as truth. Hopefully Merkel pisses him off so he feels the need to punish her by giving us a good deal.

GDP does have a lot to do with output and how big an economy is, you can almost mirror it with trade done (exports and imports) and you'll get the same results. Saying that it's not relevant when it comes to trade is a bit off to say the least.

[Awol]

Former Irish diplomat seems to think Ireland may also end up leaving the EU.

 

Any wide ranging and equitable agreement between the US & UK (which Ireland could expect to join in a post EU future) may see the idea becoming more mainstream.

[Chindie]

14 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Nothing Trump says can be taken as truth. Hopefully Merkel pisses him off so he feels the need to punish her by giving us a good deal.

GDP does have a lot to do with output and how big an economy is, you can almost mirror it with trade done (exports and imports) and you'll get the same results. Saying that it's not relevant when it comes to trade is a bit off to say the least.

There's more to trade and a trade deal than the size of the economies involved. Much more. The practicalities of geography, regulation, associated deals (i.e. the US is going to be very interested in how Britain trades with the EU after Brexit, which is a ludicrously complicated thing to bear in mind, and the effect any deal would have on existing trade deals they have), internal markets and competition... It's great the US is a big economy we want to deal more with, but there's immensely more to it than that.

It ties back into why Brexit is daft. There's a bloody big economy right next to us that we already comply with and form part of.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Chindie

[itdoesntmatterwhatthissay]

35 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Trumps rhetoric has always been America gets the best out of it's deals from now on. Do not expect favours from his regime.

Also it's not really to to him how quickly a deal gets done.

The US share of global GDP isn't of much relevance either.

Fixed it for you

[Awol]

8 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Nothing Trump says can be taken as truth. Hopefully Merkel pisses him off so he feels the need to punish her by giving us a good deal.

GDP does have a lot to do with output and how big an economy is, you can almost mirror it with trade done (exports and imports) and you'll get the same results. Saying that it's not relevant when it comes to trade is a bit off to say the least.

Trump's Anglophile acolytes have pointed out that an FTA with the UK is highly attractive to them for a number of reasons:

The volume / value of current trade is roughly equal so a deal doesn't unduly benefit one party over another;

Convergence in terms of skills and wages means US manufacturing jobs won't flee to the UK a la Mexico or China;

It serves as a showcase domestically for Trump Admin to demonstrate they are not anti-trade if the US gets a 'fair' deal in the process;

US & UK are already the biggest investors in each other's countries, so lots to build on.

Geopolitically it cements a newly liberated (for want of a better word) UK back into the US orbit, a process already taking place in the defence arena - first carrier air group on HMS QE likely to be from the USMC for a deployment to the Pacific. 

Unless Corbyn suddenly becomes PM or the Democrats somehow take the White House then no reason to think this won't happen. 

The battle now is between May and Hammond, with the latter pushing for a never ending transition deal that keeps the UK in the EU in all but name.