blandy

Should I stay or should I go now - U.K. in/out of the EU (contd.)

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16 hours ago, bickster said:

If the leavers thought the result would be the same, they wouldn't be doing absolutely everything they can to prevent it. Deep down they know what the result would be.

I hope you're right. I'd imagine though that many of them see it that they won the vote once and now, unlike then when they had everything to win, have everything to lose.

Edited by markavfc40
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2 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

I hope you're right. I'd imagine though that many of them see it that they won the vote once and now, unlike then when they had everything to win, have everything to lose.

This is how I see it as well. If they have another vote and it goes against them they instantly lose their "will of the people" arguments overnight.

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6 hours ago, bickster said:

There's another reason JLR is struggling if we're being honest. Since it changed hands, reliability has gone to pot, they've changed practices on the assembly line apparently.

No.

Productivity improved. Off to the re-education center for you!

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1 hour ago, snowychap said:

Obviously, I can't speak for what JLR senior managers were doing but you're right: they would have been as aware as the rest of us, from the time when the Bill to enable the referendum was first introduced (at the end of May 2015), that it was without much doubt that there would be a referendum by the end of 2017 (as per the first clause of the Bill/Act).

The decision on the new factory  was proposed in Oct 2014 ( Saudi Arabia)  and then in Nov 2014 it was changed to a choice between Slovakia , Hungary  and Poland  ... I'm not sure how you can say he's right when you're then mentioning May 2015 as your start date ?

the OP was proposing the decision to build a Saudi \North American \EU plant was on the back of a manifesto promise in 2013 , he even stated it was "fact"  (though he does then appear to have changed his timelines )... I've supplied numerous reasons why I don't believe it was indeed"fact" ..and in light of your comments the other day about trying to be as accurate as possible I'm surprised you aren't as curious as I am  to see his evidence

 

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1 hour ago, wazzap24 said:

Corbyn is getting on my tits more than the Tories at the moment. 

Just F-off with this 'negotiate a better  non-existent unicorn deal' crap.

Back Remain or get back in the sea, we don't need two parties peddling  the same fantasist twaddle. 

 

Just to humour this, what exactly do you think would have happened if Corbyn had chosen this morning to announce his this new Remain policy?

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I don't think the JLR Factory in Slovakia had much, if anything, to do with Brexit to be honest. It certainly wasn't mentioned internally as anything other than a cost saving activity. Maybe a potential referendum was involved in the thought process but I don't think it was a major contributor.

 

It's certainly more of a factor in the announced job cuts though.

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15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Just to humour this, what exactly do you think would have happened if Corbyn had chosen this morning to announce his this new Remain policy?

A lot of right wing newspapers would have published articles denouncing him as a borderline communist who can't be trusted to be PM. Pretty much the same as every other day, except those of us who wanted to remain in the EU and those on the other side that want to leave but can't countenance "no deal" wouldn't have to waste our vote at the next time there's a GE.

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2 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

A lot of right wing newspapers would have published articles denouncing him as a borderline communist who can't be trusted to be PM. Pretty much the same as every other day, except those of us who wanted to remain in the EU and those on the other side that want to leave but can't countenance "no deal" wouldn't have to waste our vote at the next time there's a GE.

. . . and the dozens and dozens of backbench Labour MP's who don't want to Remain would have . .  .

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2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

The decision on the new factory  was proposed in Oct 2014 ( Saudi Arabia)  and then in Nov 2014 it was changed to a choice between Slovakia , Hungary  and Poland  ... I'm not sure how you can say he's right when you're then mentioning May 2015 as your start date ?

I made no comment about the decision making process of JLR and its senior management with regard to their factory in Slovakia.

I merely confirmed the timeline of the process of the EU Refendum Bill/Act and that they (JLR bods), between May 2015 and December 2015, would have been aware of the likelihood of a referendum taking place because of the progress of that piece of legislation.

 

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Ooft.

Of course the defeat won't be that big in the end, but any kind of defeat on something the PM is so tied to should bring the government down. An enormous defeat should be resignation without much thought.

But this is Theresa May. And this is UK politics in 2019. They'll take the keys from No.10 out of her cold dead hands.

What money another delay? Maybe she try to break a predicted 300 loss.

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2 hours ago, desensitized43 said:

That letter can't possibly be genuine, surely? It's atrociously written. He needs to fire his proofreader forthwith!

His arithmetic seems suspect, as well...

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21 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

There should never have been a referendum. Not on something as complex as this.

I know some are screaming out for a peoples vote/second referendum but I am not sure the result would be any different. A lot of leavers have become tribal about wanting to leave and they want it no matter what the cost.

I can't see there being a positive ending to all this. This country is as divided now as I can ever remember it and that is not going to change any time soon. What a needless mess.

I do find a second referendum sorta weird ... remainers should they win will presumably say , there we won that's it we are staying  .. end of

a second  referendum result of leave sorta makes it conclusive (ish) .. and off we go  ...  a remain vote can't really equate to anything other than a 3rd vote surely ?

I say that but on the likely basis we wouldn't have a third one  , a second vote coming up as remain and presumably a withdrawal of article 50 would most likely result in a new political party ( not UKIP) who would have a potential base of 15 million (give or take) and potentially lots of defecting Tory MP's + a few Labour who would be likely to win a fair few seats in the commons (unlike UKIP)   .... The Tories would be the most likely losers in such a split ,guess the only dilemma for Corbyn will be does he stay with Labour or leave and try and  lead the new Brexit party :) 

 

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1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Just to humour this, what exactly do you think would have happened if Corbyn had chosen this morning to announce his this new Remain policy?

I dunno dude. I'm just totally sick of the delusion on all sides and I've had enough of Corbyn (and Labour in general) being about as much opposition to the Tories as Burton were to Man City last night. It's just my opinion and I'm becoming more and more frustrated with it all, so I'm probably not being particularly rational about it. 

I'm not as knowledgable as most of you guys that post in here and my position is very simplistic, but I just want an opposition I can believe in and one that supports the majority of its voter's views, not just the majority of it's membership. 

 

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1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

and off we go  ...  a remain vote can't really equate to anything other than a 3rd vote surely

I don't understand why anyone would actually believe that. The whole point is that we had a vote to start the process, then you have a vote to make sure the outcome of the process is what is desired. What's the rationale behind a third vote apart from  the logic of a six year old in the playground who just lost a game of jumpers for goalposts

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1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

. . . and the dozens and dozens of backbench Labour MP's who don't want to Remain would have . .  .

Who cares really. They aren't the point

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1 hour ago, Chindie said:

Labour annoy me, and they should have irritated any right minded Remain backer. But the government, this Tory party, is horrific. It's a particularly grim blend of usual Tory nastiness with an smatterings of incompetence and outright scummy activity. They're a special kind of evil.

I think slightly differently, but no massively, from your whole post. I agree about the tories, but see the Labour thing differently. Because what Labour has actually done, via Corbyn is facilitate some of the worst actions of the tories. Specific examples include his whipping his party to support triggering A50 2 years ago. It was palpably idiotic, both at the time and with hindsight. By enthusiastically doing that kind of thing (ditto with Lords votes) it should more than annoy Remainers, but also leavers (of whatever bent). It threw away the only card the UK really had. Secondly, while it was primarily the tories, as you say as the Gov't, that ran things, there really really should have been a situation (which either the tories or Labour could have initiated) whereby collectively Parliament worked out what they wanted (before triggering A50). IF (say) Labour had a pro leave, (but safeguarding this that and the other) position, which they claimed they did have, they should have gone to the Gov't and said "this is what we want out of Leave, if you talk to us, we can potentially agree a national/Parliamentary position and then go the the EU with "give us this". But they didn't, they did the opposite. They said one thing and did another. They refused to join even with SNP, Plaid, Greens in creating a combined opposition position. Corbyn has frequently hidden in his potting shed and ducked and weaved and avoided Brexit stuff altogether. Even if you were a leave voter, he has failed to pressure the Gov't to reach a credible leave position. Labour's position is as unrealistic as the tories. They're utterly useless, and it's only a combo of the rebel tories, more capable Labour and a few others that have ever provided any opposition at all to the massive clusterpork May has made of this. Forensic dissection of the hypocrisy, stupidity, contradictions, lies and all the rest has been wholly absent. They are basically just as bad as the tories. It's no good saying you want apple pie and kindness if you actually facilitate and support a poo sandwich and evil.

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16 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I do find a second referendum sorta weird ... remainers should they win will presumably say , there we won that's it we are staying  .. end of

a second  referendum result of leave sorta makes it conclusive (ish) .. and off we go  ...  a remain vote can't really equate to anything other than a 3rd vote surely ?

Before the first one, various Leavers, Farage, Mogg, Johnson were proposing a first ref to Leave or Not then a second to vote on whether the "deal" /decision was  right once we knew the detail. Kind of like "Holiday or stay at home" OK, you voted Holiday, and we're going to a 1 star hotel in Baghdad for 2 weeks at 4 grand a head. Do you still want the holiday? Yes or no?

So I don't think it automatically goes to a "best of 3 type thing".

I do get that it won't make the issue go way, and this is another area where almost all parties have failed. Because they've concentrated on leaving to the exclusion of all else, pretty much, the "reasons" for leave have not been explored. It's just been reduced to whoever claiming "immigration" or "sovereignty" or "money" or whatever being claimed as "that's what people voted for" - but no one knows, and there were surely multiple different reasons. Address them, and the situation changes again.

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20 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

 

I say that but on the likely basis we wouldn't have a third one  , a second vote coming up as remain and presumably a withdrawal of article 50 would most likely result in a new political party ( not UKIP) who would have a potential base of 15 million (give or take) and potentially lots of defecting Tory MP's + a few Labour who would be likely to win a fair few seats in the commons (unlike UKIP)   .... The Tories would be the most likely losers in such a split ,guess the only dilemma for Corbyn will be does he stay with Labour or leave and try and  lead the new Brexit party :) 

 

You could have made the same argument in the last election that 16 million remainers would potentially vote for Lib Dems but they didn't.

I am sure there would be an uprising of UKIP or equivalent if there was another referendum and the vote was to remain and I think it has made some people very tribalistic about it and they would want out no matter what the consequences as they have become that blinkered.  

There have always been plenty of anti EU people in this country but I guess when they go to mark their X in a general election they look at wider issues otherwise UKIP would have had a number of MP's years ago.

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