The Fun Factory Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, bickster said: I think it's time we held a sweepstake on the number of Tory MPs at the next election The upper limit will be 100 I was pissing about with the Electoral Calculus predictor and it's actually possible given a few percentage points either way that the LibDems might actually benefit at the next election from FPTP which is hilarious. If the Tories fall to 20% vote share and the Libdems rise to 14.5%, The LibDems could be the opposition Its not outside the realms of possibility The system helps the 2 main paries big time. Labour were useless last time and still won over 200 seats. In 97 the Tories still ended up with 165 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted December 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: The system helps the 2 main paries big time. Labour were useless last time and still won over 200 seats. In 97 the Tories still ended up with 165 seats. I'm not sure what your point is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 He's so out of his depth. Another jumped up, spolit rich boy with delusions of grandeur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted December 7, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 hour ago, ml1dch said: I feel that you are over-estimating the chances of Tory MPs voting with their conscience instead of their personal and party interest. Agree, but I do think it will be better for them to oppose the plan, certainly in its current state. Beforehand, they could get behind it as it was relatively benign and kept other parts of the party content. In its revised state I think it will lose a lot more of the "central" vote that side of the party relies on and those votes will likely go to the Lib Dems or in some instances will go to Labour. I therefore think that, for their own personal political interest, it would be better to go against the policy now rather than support it. If they continue down this path, I genuinely can see the Tories going down to double digits of MPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: The system helps the 2 main paries big time. Labour were useless last time and still won over 200 seats. In 97 the Tories still ended up with 165 seats. You also need to look though at the changing sands of seats - it's very easy to get caught up in the results of elections and not see the trends underneath. Example - 2017 is broadly seen as a terrible election for the Tories, but May increased the Tory vote by 2m from the 2015 result, to lose thirteen seats. But those extra votes turned a load of safe Labour seats into marginals. In 2019, Johnson only added 300,000 votes to May's 2017 total, to gain forty eight seats - nearly all them the ones that May had softened up two years earlier. What else happened in 2019? The Lib Dems went from twelve seats to eleven and Jo Swinson lost her seat. But in the process, they added over a million votes to their 2017 total which was the most extra votes that any party gained by a mile in that election. And the majority of those went into turning safe Tory seats into Tory / Lib Dem marginals in 2024. If Starmer gets the stonking majority that looks likely at the moment, he's arguably got Jo Swinson to thank more than anybody on his own side. Edited December 7, 2023 by ml1dch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 So Sunak has done a press conference, I guess an attempt to not look asleep at the wheel. He said that the ECHR might still challenge, but also that he wouldn’t let foreign courts to block flights So is he saying he will reject/ignore an ECHR ruling? He certainly doesn’t have the balls for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted December 7, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 7, 2023 35 minutes ago, bickster said: I think it's time we held a sweepstake on the number of Tory MPs at the next election The upper limit will be 100 I was pissing about with the Electoral Calculus predictor and it's actually possible given a few percentage points either way that the LibDems might actually benefit at the next election from FPTP which is hilarious. If the Tories fall to 20% vote share and the Libdems rise to 14.5%, The LibDems could be the opposition Its not outside the realms of possibility I'm saying 69, because, well, it would be pretty funny but I think Sunak is providing more and more evidence how incompetent he actually is. I also think tatical voting will have a huge impact this election as the distain is more "anyone than Tory". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Very fashy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 I agree entirely with their first sentence. Imagine my surprise when it didn't go on to announce Rishi Sunak's resignation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted December 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, cyrusr said: I'm saying 69, because, well, it would be pretty funny but I think Sunak is providing more and more evidence how incompetent he actually is. I also think tatical voting will have a huge impact this election as the distain is more "anyone than Tory". Yes, I'm absolutely convinced the LibDems numbers are currently lower in the polls than they will be come the election. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, Xann said: Sporting a hat someone gave him during his time as PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Genie said: Sporting a hat someone gave him during his time as PM. It's a Grimsby Town hat, but that's a cracking angle, well done to the photographer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 3 hours ago, bickster said: I'm not sure what your point is? Someone mentioned they may only get 100 MP's in the next election. They will probably get at least 150-200 due to the electoral system, no matter how mad they are currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 minute ago, The Fun Factory said: Someone mentioned they may only get 100 MP's in the next election. They will probably get at least 150-200 due to the electoral system, no matter how mad they are currently. No, I think you're wildly wrong with that. As it currently stands they are heading for an unprecedented defeat, their largest ever by some considerable margin. They will have the least number of MPs since the introduction of the current parliamentary system with the introduction of the Representation of the People Act in 1918. The current nadir for Tory MPs is 165 which was from 1997. The Tories achieved 30.7% of the vote, their current polling is way below that. There are MRP polls from as far back as August that predict on a granular level constituency by constituency their share of the seats being 64. They haven't improved in the standings since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted December 7, 2023 Oh and if anyone fancies a flutter... SkyBet are offering 7/1 currently for the Tories to win less than 100 seats 14/1 for Labour to be over 500 10/3 on the LibDems winning over 60 seats I'm not sure they've done their maths because if the LibDems win over 60 seats, I'd say it was nailed on that the Tories win under 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, bickster said: Oh and if anyone fancies a flutter... SkyBet are offering 7/1 currently for the Tories to win less than 100 seats 14/1 for Labour to be over 500 10/3 on the LibDems winning over 60 seats I'm not sure they've done their maths because if the LibDems win over 60 seats, I'd say it was nailed on that the Tories win under 100 They are separate bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted December 7, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, bickster said: Oh and if anyone fancies a flutter... SkyBet are offering 7/1 currently for the Tories to win less than 100 seats 14/1 for Labour to be over 500 10/3 on the LibDems winning over 60 seats I'm not sure they've done their maths because if the LibDems win over 60 seats, I'd say it was nailed on that the Tories win under 100 How about a double with Villa to win the league? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted December 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted December 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Genie said: They are separate bets. What I'm saying is if the LibDems get 60 seats, its pretty nailed on that the Tories will be under 100, they are effectively the same outcome, so don't take the odds on the LibDem seats take the odds on the Tory Seats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 (edited) 36 minutes ago, bickster said: What I'm saying is if the LibDems get 60 seats, its pretty nailed on that the Tories will be under 100, they are effectively the same outcome, so don't take the odds on the LibDem seats take the odds on the Tory Seats Or, if you fancy LibDems to get 60+ have it as a double with the Tories getting <100 for extra value! Good idea. Edited December 7, 2023 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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