darrenm Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 On 02/07/2021 at 13:49, bickster said: Another aside of this, someone earlier in the topic was putting a lot of weight behind the Survation Poll in the middle of June that suggested a 6 point lead for the Tories and that Survation have their polling spot on Maybe we'll have that one put to bed now too That'd be me. I don't remember putting much weight behind it, simply saying that the survation poll for Hartlepool turned out to be very close. If you've been looking for other gotchas you'll see I said a few weeks back that selecting Kim Leadbeater might just about win it for Labour as long as Keir Starmer kept away - Starmer kept away, leaflets were sent out without Labour branding and the seat was won due to Leadbeater. You'll also see that on the election night I predicted a close Labour victory after initially being sure the Tories would win. Not sure why you haven't brought those 2 up as evidence of me getting it right rather than a poll that I had nothing to do with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 4, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 4, 2021 25 minutes ago, darrenm said: That'd be me. I don't remember putting much weight behind it, simply saying that the survation poll for Hartlepool turned out to be very close. If you've been looking for other gotchas you'll see I said a few weeks back that selecting Kim Leadbeater might just about win it for Labour as long as Keir Starmer kept away - Starmer kept away, leaflets were sent out without Labour branding and the seat was won due to Leadbeater. You'll also see that on the election night I predicted a close Labour victory after initially being sure the Tories would win. Not sure why you haven't brought those 2 up as evidence of me getting it right rather than a poll that I had nothing to do with. I'm not sure why you think this was about you. It wasn't a “gotcha”, as far as I remember it wasn't even you that brought it up. My post was about the validity of polling in small samples and having to take into account who the client was My recollection is that you as you've said, claimed the Survation Hartlepool poll was spot on, then you went and checked and it wasn't. I don't think it was you that mentioned the B&S Survation poll at all but hey if you want it to be you I guess it can be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 18, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2021 So Labour is expelling 1,000 lefties - glad. Get rid. But should they want to start a new party, offering something Labour and the Tories are not, i.e. hope, then I'll certainly back them with cash. Labour needs to be taken apart for it to realise it's never going to win by itself. But what if that gives us more Tory rule - well we're gonna get more Tory rule as it stands anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 18, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2021 When is it politically expedient to start a party that attracts literally everyone under 30? There are so many issues that divide younger and older voters, yet the younger ones are going to be voting for longer. I presume self preserving politicians will go for that when the time is right, but it can't be far off surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 Just now, Jareth said: When is it politically expedient to start a party that attracts literally everyone under 30? There are so many issues that divide younger and older voters, yet the younger ones are going to be voting for longer. I presume self preserving politicians will go for that when the time is right, but it can't be far off surely? It depends what the aim and purpose of the party is. If it's to win a general election - and that's not the only worthwhile aim, to be clear - then it's not worth aiming *specifically* at younger voters (as opposed to a broad coalition of which younger voters are a part). That being said, Labour cannot afford to lose younger voters in the numbers they are at the moment, especially when people up to about 40 are 'younger' voters these days. They are currently being extremely cavalier about their base. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 18, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: It depends what the aim and purpose of the party is. If it's to win a general election - and that's not the only worthwhile aim, to be clear - then it's not worth aiming *specifically* at younger voters (as opposed to a broad coalition of which younger voters are a part). That being said, Labour cannot afford to lose younger voters in the numbers they are at the moment, especially when people up to about 40 are 'younger' voters these days. They are currently being extremely cavalier about their base. I mean, I just read articles like this and weep a bit - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/6857dc98-2f45-4b59-b94e-f725c6439f61 - these guys are completely separated from a world older voters thrive in, home ownership. Labour is light in policy but it's also doing nothing to court these guys - is the political battle 40+? This is short term surely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jareth said: I mean, I just read articles like this and weep a bit - https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/6857dc98-2f45-4b59-b94e-f725c6439f61 - these guys are completely separated from a world older voters thrive in, home ownership. Labour is light in policy but it's also doing nothing to court these guys - is the political battle 40+? This is short term surely. There's nothing good on housing going to come from this Labour party. They think helping renters is unacceptably trottish, and most of the PLP are landlords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 18, 2021 Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Jareth said: When is it politically expedient to start a party that attracts literally everyone under 30? Once they start actually voting in elections? The younger voter, 55% turn out, the older voter, 70% turnout. Take that there are more people between 31 to 100 than there are between 16 and 30 and a party for the under 30’s looks a bit of a struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 18, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Jareth said: When is it politically expedient to start a party that attracts literally everyone under 30? There are so many issues that divide younger and older voters, yet the younger ones are going to be voting for longer. I presume self preserving politicians will go for that when the time is right, but it can't be far off surely? No party will attract everyone under 30 further than that no party will attract 25% of those under 30 given that 50% of them don't vote Why start a new party? There are already many left wing parties of varying degrees of relevance and as clearly winning elections isn't part of your agenda, why does it need the peoples popular workers party of judea to be formed when you already have: The Green Party The SWP The Socialist Party Left Unity (If any party were more innapropriately named...) The Communist Party of Britain The Socialist Party of Great Britain Alliance for Green Socialism Communist League Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers Party of Britain Workers Revolutionary Party And thats just the ones that field candidates occasionally, either in their own right or as part of a coalition So where is this new left party going to fit in? It's a crowded space already As I've said previously a number of times. The fight over control of Labour was a fight over the brand and that list above is just one of the many reasons that the brand is the most important thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Club 18-30 but with Corbyn as a figurehead. The party political broadcasts could go out before Love Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 19, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 19, 2021 10 hours ago, bickster said: No party will attract everyone under 30 further than that no party will attract 25% of those under 30 given that 50% of them don't vote Why start a new party? There are already many left wing parties of varying degrees of relevance and as clearly winning elections isn't part of your agenda, why does it need the peoples popular workers party of judea to be formed when you already have: The Green Party The SWP The Socialist Party Left Unity (If any party were more innapropriately named...) The Communist Party of Britain The Socialist Party of Great Britain Alliance for Green Socialism Communist League Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers Party of Britain Workers Revolutionary Party And thats just the ones that field candidates occasionally, either in their own right or as part of a coalition So where is this new left party going to fit in? It's a crowded space already As I've said previously a number of times. The fight over control of Labour was a fight over the brand and that list above is just one of the many reasons that the brand is the most important thing https://iea.org.uk/media/67-per-cent-of-young-brits-want-a-socialist-economic-system-finds-new-poll/ A Forefront Market Research poll commissioned by the IEA of just under 2,000 people aged between 16 and 34 in the UK, carried out between February and March 2021, found that: 67 per cent say they would like to live in a socialist economic system. 75 per cent agree with the assertion that climate change is a specifically capitalist problem. 78 per cent blame capitalism for Britain’s housing crisis. 72 per cent support the (re-)nationalisation of various industries such as energy, water and the railways. 72 per cent believe that private sector involvement would put the NHS at risk. 75 per cent agree with the statement that ‘socialism is a good idea, but it has failed in the past because it has been badly done’. Strikes me that there are some very unifying issues for those under 34 - yet Starmer is not interested. I believe a new party unattached to the dinosaur parties you listed, fuelled by young people campaigning on the issues above, would do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jareth said: https://iea.org.uk/media/67-per-cent-of-young-brits-want-a-socialist-economic-system-finds-new-poll/ A Forefront Market Research poll commissioned by the IEA of just under 2,000 people aged between 16 and 34 in the UK, carried out between February and March 2021, found that: 67 per cent say they would like to live in a socialist economic system. 75 per cent agree with the assertion that climate change is a specifically capitalist problem. 78 per cent blame capitalism for Britain’s housing crisis. 72 per cent support the (re-)nationalisation of various industries such as energy, water and the railways. 72 per cent believe that private sector involvement would put the NHS at risk. 75 per cent agree with the statement that ‘socialism is a good idea, but it has failed in the past because it has been badly done’. Strikes me that there are some very unifying issues for those under 34 - yet Starmer is not interested. I believe a new party unattached to the dinosaur parties you listed, fuelled by young people campaigning on the issues above, would do well. The Green Party already exists, contests elections and actually wins a seat. Yet you want another one to start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 19, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, bickster said: The Green Party already exists, contests elections and actually wins a seat. Yet you want another one to start Yes, old farts need not apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-demand-at-least-21-23622741 Quote "Labour said nurses and other NHS staff should get 2.1% as a bare minimum - but wouldn't say exactly how much and insisted a strike was 'hypothetical'" https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-ping-of-fire-fino-3-percent-pay-rise/ Quote "the government is set to give them a pay rise of 3 percent on Tuesday. The NHS Pay Review Body made its recommendation to ministers several weeks ago, calling for a 3 percent rise, and the announcement is now imminent." https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/03/rishi-sunaks-budget-brings-first-corporation-tax-rise-since-1974 Quote "Rishi Sunak has announced the first corporation tax rise in 47 years, but sought to soften the blow with £25bn in investment incentives for British businesses. The headline rate of corporation tax, the tax businesses pay on their profits, will rise to 25% for company profits over £250,000 from April 2023, the chancellor told parliament in Wednesday’s budget." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-budget-corporation-tax-b1806739.html Quote "Labour says it will oppose any hikes in corporation tax on big business, in an extraordinary political reversal ahead of next week’s Budget. The party also did not rule out voting against a windfall tax on supermarkets, to fund the Covid-19 recovery – which Rishi Sunak is believed to be planning." The Conservative Party is becoming more fiscally left wing than the Labour Party. Why should I vote Labour? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, Jareth said: Yes, old farts need not apply Ah so this new political party is going to practice age discrimination. They have excellent chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 As an election winning strategy, targeting 75% of a minority demographic of which around half doesn't regularly vote is an interesting one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Davkaus said: As an election winning strategy, targeting 75% of a minority demographic of which around half doesn't regularly vote is an interesting one. Some validity for the long term? Hardly looks like Labour are getting close to winning in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted July 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 19, 2021 2 hours ago, bickster said: The Green Party already exists, contests elections and actually wins a seat. Yet you want another one to start The Green Party are strange - they started out as dominated by ecological thinking, a splinter party that needed some other policies - they adopted those that are broadly Labour and now find that as Labour abandon those policies and take on the standpoint traditionally held by the Tories and the Tories veer off into some sort of extreme right wing criminal gang, they're left as the most sensible party for traditional Labour voters to get behind. Everything but the brand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: The Green Party are strange - they started out as dominated by ecological thinking, a splinter party that needed some other policies - they adopted those that are broadly Labour and now find that as Labour abandon those policies and take on the standpoint traditionally held by the Tories and the Tories veer off into some sort of extreme right wing criminal gang, they're left as the most sensible party for traditional Labour voters to get behind. Everything but the brand. I’m not sure I wholly agree with the bit in bold, but could be wrong. They started off as the Ecology Party and later renamed themselves. I first voted for them in the 80s and my perception is that when they changed into the greens, they went and were to the left of Labour. Labour under both Foot and Corbyn put more left wing stances to the electorate and lost. I think there’s an argument (just on maths and stats) to say that there’s a huge bulk of the population that is kind of unrepresented by any party. And that is people who don’t like the right wing Tory stuff, but were/are equally put off by Corbyn or Green style leftism. In that regard Labour becoming more like Blair’s Labour in outlook makes some sense. Obviously he’s toxic, himself, and rightly so. A lot of people are surely kind of of the view that they don’t like the type of “set sharks on asylum seekers” Tory stuff and they don’t like arguments that end up with people being piled on and cancelled for saying women have vaginas. I think most people want stuff to work, roads to be not full of potholes and not to die in a pandemic. Schools to be decent and life to be peaceful. No one appears to be offering that kind of stuff right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts