The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[chrisp65]

Best we stick with the Bullingdon Club then, eh lads.

[chrisp65]

 

 

[Jareth]

The Keir Starmer effect. I hope if Labour fail to get in that y'all turn your fire on the insipid grey politicians that run Labour these days - 1997 is not coming back. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/11/poll-says-keir-starmer-worse-choice-for-pm-than-boris-johnson

Boris Johnson makes a better prime minister than Keir Starmer would despite Partygate, the cost of living crisis and the confidence vote in Johnson held by his MPs, according to the latest Observer poll.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Jareth said:

The Keir Starmer effect. I hope if Labour fail to get in that y'all turn your fire on the insipid grey politicians that run Labour these days - 1997 is not coming back. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/11/poll-says-keir-starmer-worse-choice-for-pm-than-boris-johnson

Boris Johnson makes a better prime minister than Keir Starmer would despite Partygate, the cost of living crisis and the confidence vote in Johnson held by his MPs, according to the latest Observer poll.

Just from reading the baseline figures for the Party share of the vote, that poll is somewhat of an outlier compared to current trends

 

[Jareth]

Starmer WILL need to outline a vision for Britain - it surely writes itself - but he's so utterly vague. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

8 hours ago, Jareth said:

Starmer WILL need to outline a vision for Britain - it surely writes itself - but he's so utterly vague. 

(Bit of a rant as they drive me insane) Shouldn't he and everyone around him already know this as a long term plan that the team know by heart and not only that but how to get there? Isn't it a bit weird he hasn't got a communicated vision allready?

They are up against Boris Johnson so its an easy win the tactic in interviews is the same as always.  a) Look at X the government has done / not done,  its outrageous.  Question "What would Labour do?" well..... b) When speak I to people up and down the whole country they ALL say to me "Made up sentence/viewpoint " c) And that is what I and Labour really care about is the "Made up sentence/viewpoint " that I keep hearing from everyone.  (Nandy comes out with this for everything and its pathetic) - If it was true they would be in power years ago.  It's just a lie they all come out with,  why look at polls if everyone up and down the country says the same as Nandy ?  (It really annoys me and is just trying to connect with people who believe anything they hear the 1%)

Pandemic,  War,  10% inflation,  PPE contracts,  130k dead and a Prime minister that gets fixed penalty notices.  Still in touch in 2nd place though so there is that.

[cyrusr]

12 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

(Bit of a rant as they drive me insane) Shouldn't he and everyone around him already know this as a long term plan that the team know by heart and not only that but how to get there? Isn't it a bit weird he hasn't got a communicated vision allready?

They are up against Boris Johnson so its an easy win the tactic in interviews is the same as always.  a) Look at X the government has done / not done,  its outrageous.  Question "What would Labour do?" well..... b) When speak I to people up and down the whole country they ALL say to me "Made up sentence/viewpoint " c) And that is what I and Labour really care about is the "Made up sentence/viewpoint " that I keep hearing from everyone.  (Nandy comes out with this for everything and its pathetic) - If it was true they would be in power years ago.  It's just a lie they all come out with,  why look at polls if everyone up and down the country says the same as Nandy ?  (It really annoys me and is just trying to connect with people who believe anything they hear the 1%)

Pandemic,  War,  10% inflation,  PPE contracts,  130k dead and a Prime minister that gets fixed penalty notices.  Still in touch in 2nd place though so there is that.

Being devil’s advocates, what if they already know but don’t want the Tories stealing the ideas pre-election? Anything good done by the Tories for some time has generally been a Labour idea first.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

24 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

Being devil’s advocates, what if they already know but don’t want the Tories stealing the ideas pre-election?

I agree to a certain degree but on the other hand that means that a great policy ideas invented by Labour,  is then stolen by the Tories in full view of everyone and then implemented by a Government led by Boris makes Labour somehow weaker ? 

Or what would the reason not to let anyone know what they are ? The Tories can't be totally incompetent as Nandy says if they are nimble and clever enough to steal ideas from the opposition and capitalize on them. (if that makes any sense ?)

[bickster]

45 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Pandemic,  War,  10% inflation,  PPE contracts,  130k dead and a Prime minister that gets fixed penalty notices.  Still in touch in 2nd place though so there is that.

The Polls actually say, clearly a good few points ahead and have been ahead for 6 months

Politico Poll of Polls

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

The Polls actually say, clearly a good few points ahead and have been ahead for 6 months

Its mid term and the things they cant control (War / inflation) would hit any Government hard I would think.  Another way to look at it is 7%,  given that almost everyone labour and specifically Nandy has spoken to up and down the country wants the Tories gone especially after Partygate / 10% inflation etc.  Given the circumstances,  are they happy with 7%,  and what majority historically has it given Labour at a GE when ahead by 5+% at half time.  They will still lose the GE even from here IMO.  If the PM getting an actual fine from the Police gets you 7% what would he need to do to get Labour 20 % lead ? (Which is what they would need going into a GE).  (Not having a pop,  just how I see it from far away)

 

[mjmooney]

8 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

If the PM getting an actual fine from the Police gets you 7% what would he need to do to get Labour 20 % lead ?

If anybody can find that thing, it's Boris. Which is why Labour need him to stay in power as long as possible. 

[Sam-AVFC]

43 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Its mid term and the things they cant control (War / inflation) would hit any Government hard I would think. 

You would think wrong. The war in Ukraine was an absolute godsend for this government, particularly as they somehow managed to largely do what was needed.

[cyrusr]

2 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I agree to a certain degree but on the other hand that means that a great policy ideas invented by Labour,  is then stolen by the Tories in full view of everyone and then implemented by a Government led by Boris makes Labour somehow weaker ? 

Or what would the reason not to let anyone know what they are ? The Tories can't be totally incompetent as Nandy says if they are nimble and clever enough to steal ideas from the opposition and capitalize on them. (if that makes any sense ?)

I think the pessimism comes in due to the potential timeframe. Between when those policy are put in place take and then take effect means that something else will be a problem but the Tories will take the credit.

The Tories aren’t totally incompetent, far from it, despite the imbecile currently in charge. They just have 1 ideology: how to remain in power for their own benefit. It’s amazing how quick they can move if it means that if they don’t they will lose votes.

[bickster]

2 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Its mid term and the things they cant control (War / inflation) would hit any Government hard I would think.  Another way to look at it is 7%,  given that almost everyone labour and specifically Nandy has spoken to up and down the country wants the Tories gone especially after Partygate / 10% inflation etc.  Given the circumstances,  are they happy with 7%,  and what majority historically has it given Labour at a GE when ahead by 5+% at half time.  They will still lose the GE even from here IMO.  If the PM getting an actual fine from the Police gets you 7% what would he need to do to get Labour 20 % lead ? (Which is what they would need going into a GE).  (Not having a pop,  just how I see it from far away)

 

There's quite a few misconceptions here I think

• War is generally good for a sitting government, not bad but the Tories only got minor upwards movement from it which they've since lost and lost more than they gained
• Partygate has clearly had a huge influence on current trends and this will continue for some time yet

Also, the current trends shouldn't be looked at as just Labour vs Tory, the LibDems also need to be factored in and that is important because as much as the failure of Corbyn is a factor in the large Tory majority, so is the failure of the LibDems which goes back to trust issues from the coalition government (righly so IMO) but that seems to being erased from the voters minds now. Why are the LibDems important? Because they are the natural opposition in a lot of seats especially in rural areas and in some geographic regions like the Souh West of England. There are two by elections coming up where I expect this will be demonstrated.

FIrstly, Wakefield a traditional Red Wall Labour seat that Labour won from 1932 until 2019. Labour will win this by margins they haven't had since the '70s because the Liberals will only be pretending to stand

Secondly, Tiverton and Honiton. You don't get much more Tory than this seat normally, Labour have been a distant second every time since 2010 but before 2010, the LibDems were second and much better placed. As much as Labour have been second, they don't have a prayer of taking this seat. When the constiuency was formed (1997) the Tory Majority was only 2kish over the LibDems, so there has been a very strong LibDem presence here in the past. So even though Labour are the second placed party, they really aren't going to try here. If the LibDems can get the vote back (and early focus group results suggest they have), they will run the Tories close and given that its a mid-term by-election, which are always more volatile and favour opposition parties, it's perfectly within the realms of possibility that they will elect a LibDem for the first time. The LibDems are also usually quite good at retaining by-election seats at the next election

The LibDem resurgence is needed and it is also affecting the margins between Labour and the Tories becuase where some would have voted Labour in certain seats because its the best Not Tory vote, those votes will go to the LibDems where the LibDems can demonstrate an ability to win, it is also much easier for the LibDems to pick up dissaffected Tory voters as they still have a Not Labour mentality.

And that's why my prediction for some time has been a Labour / LibDem coaltion as the next Government and my hope is that electoral reform is the number one demand of the LibDems in forming a coalition. And if that last bit happens, watch politics get really interesting for statos. (Like why does the Isle of WIght only elect one MP with a 119,00 electorate when Stoke Central elects an MP with a 55,000 electorate - both Tory seats as it happens)

So anyway, thats why the LibDem resurgence is important

[markavfc40]

I don't think the pain from inflation is being truly felt yet. It is bad but far worse is to come. Rising energy costs in April have coincided with the warmer months. They are due to rise by another 40 odd percent come October, then again in January, so that £400 that your average Joe is getting in October isn't going to touch the sides. 

We are also going to see far more strikes coming down the line. You can bet your bottom dollar that public sector pay is not going to go up by any more than 2 or 3% and with inflation predicted to hit 10% over the next couple of months that is going to ignite wide spread industrial action. 

Throw in the on going issues in the NHS with waiting times through the roof, A and E packed to the rafters, more chance getting an audience with the Queen than seeing your GP, all likely to get worse again during the winter.

Oh and the on going issues with Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol/breaking of international laws, and Tory in fighting over it. A Tory party with already 40% of its MP's wanting the leader gone.

All the above and more means that a single digit poll lead for Labour will become double digits over the next few months with them needing to do little more than watch.

[tinker]

If the conservatives push through their law enabling agency labour to replace striking workers, could this incite unions into calling for a general strike? It's a major blow to them if this law goes through. In fact it's a big blow to us all. 

[HanoiVillan]

16 hours ago, Jareth said:

Starmer WILL need to outline a vision for Britain - it surely writes itself - but he's so utterly vague. 

I'm confused by the idea that 'a vision for Britain' 'writes itself'?

[chrisp65]

9 minutes ago, tinker said:

If the conservatives push through their law enabling agency labour to replace striking workers, could this incite unions into calling for a general strike? It's a major blow to them if this law goes through. In fact it's a big blow to us all. 

As was pointed out by some union bod earlier, part of the problem is staff shortages.

Where is the agency labour to run a railway coming from?

 

[tinker]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

As was pointed out by some union bod earlier, part of the problem is staff shortages.

Where is the agency labour to run a railway coming from?

 

I'm not sure but I did notice that JLR have a license to use Maintenance workers on this scheme, it's seems to be a backdoor for companies needing labour.

These are the list of companies who are eligible to import labour on the visa scheme, it's a big list. 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1081855/2022-06-10_-_Worker_and_Temporary_Worker.csv/preview

 

 

 

 

[chrisp65]

But Brexit meaning labour can only be sourced overseas to prevent pay rises would be a direct contradiction of the Johnson promise of a pay rise for all.

The man may not be popular at the moment, but he’s not a liar.