For me it's down to West Ham, Bournemouth, Watford & Villa to join Norwich .
I can't see Newcastle not getting 6-8 points from their next 11 games leaving them around the 38 point mark. Same with Brighton, 9 points from 11 games puts them at 37.
West Ham & Watford appear to have slightly better run ins but any team from that four that kicks in and puts a few wins together can be safe.